National News
Gold retraces to $3300 – Will the rally continue or correction coming? AUGMONT WEEKLY REPORT
The gold market cooled off to $3300 (~Rs 95000) after reaching $3500 (~Rs 99350) last week as Donald Trump signalled a potential softening of his aggressive trade stance toward China and indicated that tariff negotiations were underway.
While market tensions have subsided, uncertainty remains high enough to sustain gold prices at their current levels. While President Donald Trump claims his government has begun trade discussions with China, he has stated that the US will be reasonable in terms of tariffs and that markets are reacting to tariff policies. He also stated that Iran’s situation is progressing nicely and proposed a possible interim agreement with Iran.
Other geopolitical issues are currently at play. According to reports, high-level Trump administration official Steve Witkoff is scheduled to meet with Russian President Putin soon. There are also rumours that the United States and Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity if Iran does not reach an agreement with the US.
The Reserve Bank of India purchased 57.5 tonnes of gold during the previous fiscal year, the second-highest acquisition in a year since the central bank began accumulating the precious metal in December 2017. As of March 2025, the RBI’s entire gold stock amounted to 879.6 tonnes, up from 822.1 tonnes the previous year. During 2023-24, the RBI added 27.47 tons of gold to its holdings, at a time when central banks throughout the world were expanding their gold purchases due to the US dollar’s prolonged weakening amid global uncertainty.
The creation of a “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern in the weekly charts, indicates a probable uptrend reversal, which was an intriguing technical component of gold’s price movement last week. If prices sustain below $3300 (~Rs 95000) this week, they may fall 50% to $3240 (~Rs 93000) and 61.8% to $3175 (~Rs 91500).
Having said that, if there is a new trigger of instability in trade talks in the market, we could see gold prices rebounding again. And if prices sustain above $3380 (~Rs 96400), we could see a run up towards $3435(~Rs 97400) and $3500(~Rs 99400).
National News
MCX Gold and Silver Face Volatility Amid Geopolitical Shifts
While the Current Conflict is Unlikely to Durably Impair Global Economic Growth, Investment Demand for Gold is Expected to Strengthen as Expectations for Further U.S. Monetary Easing Return
The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) observed a cautious start to Tuesday’s trading session as precious metals reacted to stalled diplomatic negotiations and a pivotal week for global monetary policy. Gold and silver futures faced downward pressure as market participants recalibrated their positions ahead of several major central bank announcements.
In domestic trading, silver experienced the most significant adjustment, while gold maintained a consolidated range:
- MCX Silver (May 2026 Delivery): Declined by Rs 1,334 (0.5%) to Rs 2,40,490 per kilogram. This follows a substantial drop of Rs 2,450 in the previous session.
- MCX Gold (June 2026 Delivery): Remained largely unchanged, trading at Rs 1,51,555 per 10 grams, after a nearly Rs 1,000 decline in the prior session.
- Global Spot Markets: In contrast to domestic futures, spot silver rose marginally by 0.5% to $75.91 per ounce, while Platinum gained 0.7% to reach $1,997.22.
The current market sentiment is heavily influenced by a shift in diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran. Hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East faded over the weekend following the cancellation of a high-level U.S. envoy visit to Islamabad.
Simultaneously, investors are turning their attention to the following key economic milestones:
- Federal Reserve Policy: The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain current interest rates in its Wednesday announcement.
- Leadership Transition: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to move forward with the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair on Wednesday.
Global Central Bank Watch: Market participants are monitoring the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England for signals on how regional conflicts may impact the global interest rate outlook
Expert Analysis and Long-Term Outlook
Despite the short-term pullback, analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the remainder of 2026. While the current conflict is unlikely to durably impair global economic growth, investment demand for gold is expected to strengthen as expectations for further U.S. monetary easing return. The core pillars of the gold rally—including sustained central bank acquisitions, U.S. debt concerns, and currency debasement worries—remain firmly in place
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MCX Gold and Silver Face Volatility Amid Geopolitical Shifts
Precious Metals Under Pressure: Diplomatic Shifts, Geopolitical Risk, and Central Bank Outlook AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Polished Prices Up, Rough Prices See Decline: AWDC
Precious Metals Under Pressure: Diplomatic Shifts, Geopolitical Risk, and Central Bank Outlook AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
MCX Gold and Silver Face Volatility Amid Geopolitical Shifts
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