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Gold retraces to $3300 – Will the rally continue or correction coming? AUGMONT WEEKLY REPORT

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The gold market cooled off to $3300 (~Rs 95000) after reaching $3500 (~Rs 99350) last week as Donald Trump signalled a potential softening of his aggressive trade stance toward China and indicated that tariff negotiations were underway.

While market tensions have subsided, uncertainty remains high enough to sustain gold prices at their current levels. While President Donald Trump claims his government has begun trade discussions with China, he has stated that the US will be reasonable in terms of tariffs and that markets are reacting to tariff policies. He also stated that Iran’s situation is progressing nicely and proposed a possible interim agreement with Iran.

Other geopolitical issues are currently at play. According to reports, high-level Trump administration official Steve Witkoff is scheduled to meet with Russian President Putin soon. There are also rumours that the United States and Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity if Iran does not reach an agreement with the US.

The Reserve Bank of India purchased 57.5 tonnes of gold during the previous fiscal year, the second-highest acquisition in a year since the central bank began accumulating the precious metal in December 2017. As of March 2025, the RBI’s entire gold stock amounted to 879.6 tonnes, up from 822.1 tonnes the previous year. During 2023-24, the RBI added 27.47 tons of gold to its holdings, at a time when central banks throughout the world were expanding their gold purchases due to the US dollar’s prolonged weakening amid global uncertainty.

The creation of a “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern in the weekly charts, indicates a probable uptrend reversal, which was an intriguing technical component of gold’s price movement last week.   If prices sustain below $3300 (~Rs 95000) this week, they may fall 50% to $3240 (~Rs 93000) and 61.8% to $3175 (~Rs 91500).

Having said that, if there is a new trigger of instability in trade talks in the market, we could see gold prices rebounding again. And if prices sustain above $3380 (~Rs 96400), we could see a run up towards $3435(~Rs 97400) and $3500(~Rs 99400).

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National News

P N Gadgil Jewellers Delivers Record Q1 FY27 Revenue Of 24,130 Mn; With 41% Revenue Growth, 57% EBITDA Growth & 52% PAT Growth; YoY

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P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited, one of the most reputed jewellers in the country, boasting 194 years of excellence in craftsmanship and trusted service in the retail business of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery, announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended 30th June 2026.

Key Financial & Operational Highlights:

  • Retail Contribution: Retail sales continued to strengthen, with the retail share of total revenue increasing to 78% in Q1 FY27 from 70% in Q1 FY26, reflecting the Company’s continued focus on expanding its high-margin retail business.
  • Strong Same-Store Performance: The Company delivered a robust Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) of 46.1% YoY, driven by healthy customer footfalls and higher transaction volumes.
  • Improving Product Mix: The retail stud ratio improved to 10.9% from 9.9% in the previous quarter. Notably, the recently launched stores across Northern and Central India are delivering a significantly higher stud ratio in the range of 15% to 18%, validating the Company’s expansion strategy into markets with structurally higher demand for studded jewellery. Additionally, LiteStyle by PNG recorded an impressive stud ratio of 32.9%, highlighting strong customer acceptance of the newly launched lightweight jewellery brand.
  • Healthy Gold Retail Mix: Retail sales of Gold vedhani, bars and coins (GBC) accounted for 21.7% of total retail revenue during the quarter, while the average gold purchase per invoice is 4.84 grams. The Company’s (GBC) strategy continues to strengthen customer acquisition and retention, with the conversion to jewellery ratio improving to 53% in Q1 FY27 from 46% in FY26, and reinforcing the long-term value of this customer lifecycle strategy.
  • Retail Product-wise Performance: During the quarter, the diamond category continued to witness exceptional momentum, delivering 29% growth in value and 26% growth in volume, underscoring increasing customer preference for studded jewellery and supporting the Company’s premiumization strategy. The gold category recorded a robust 54% growth in value, while volumes remained broadly stable with only a 1% YoY moderation, reflecting healthy demand despite elevated gold prices. The silver category registered 131% growth in value, even as volumes softened slightly by 7% YoY.
  • Outstanding Festive Performance: The Company delivered a strong Akshay Tritiya performance, with festive sales increasing 80.3% YoY to Rs 2,514.1 Mn, driven by robust consumer demand, effective festive campaigns and continued market share gains during the festive season.
  • Higher Customer Engagement: Healthy customer acquisition continued across markets, with footfalls increasing 25.9% YoY to 214,587, while maintaining a robust conversion rate of 91.8%, reflecting strong brand recall, healthy demand and the Company’s ability to consistently convert store visits into purchases.
  • Growth in Transactions & Spending: Transaction volumes increased 26.3% YoY, while the Average Transaction Value (ATV) is Rs 92,264, indicating healthy customer engagement and higher spending per visit.

  • Strengthened Hedging Framework: The Company further enhanced its risk management practices by increasing its overall hedge coverage to approximately 70%, significantly reducing exposure to gold price volatility. The Company intends to increase hedge coverage to 80%+ in the near term, with a long-term objective of achieving near-full inventory hedge coverage (~100%), thereby enhancing earnings stability and reducing commodity price risk.
  • Underlying Operating Performance: The remaining unhedged inventory resulted in a unhedged gain of Rs 97 Mn during Q1 FY27, compared to Rs 101 Mn in Q1 FY26. Excluding this unhedged gain, Adjusted EBITDA increased to Rs 1,827 Mn from Rs 1,128 Mn, with the Adjusted EBITDA Margin improving to 7.6% from 6.6% in the corresponding quarter last year.
  • Adjusted Profitability: Excluding the net impact of the unhedged gain, Adjusted PAT stood at Rs 981 Mn in Q1 FY27, compared to Rs 618 Mn in Q1 FY26, translating into an Adjusted PAT Margin of 4.1%, as against 3.6% in the corresponding quarter last year.
  • Expansion Pipeline on Track: During the quarter, the Company remained focused on enhancing the productivity of its existing network while progressing site identification, franchise partner onboarding and operational readiness for its upcoming expansion, with a significant focus on Northern and Central region, in line with its growth strategy.

As of 30th June 2026, the Company operated 78 stores (77 in India and 1 in the U.S.A.). A few store launches are planned during Q2 FY27, with the majority of the year’s expansion scheduled across Q3 and Q4 FY27, in line with the Company’s phased rollout.

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