International News
Gold-Silver Caught Between War Fears and A Hawkish Fed AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Odds For A July Rate Hike, Priced By CME Futures At Around 34%, Jumped To Over 78% For A September Hike. This Shift Hurt Gold, Which Pays No Interest, Even Though Geopolitical Risk Remained High
Gold and silver went through one of the shakiest weeks of the quarter, pulled in two directions at once. On one side, worsening tensions in the Middle East kept investors reaching for safe assets. On the other, a sudden and sharp shift in expectations about the Federal Reserve’s rate path put a lid on prices and eventually pushed them back down. COMEX gold climbed to a two-week high above $4,150 an ounce by midweek, only to fall sharply on Thursday and slip back under $4,100.
War Tensions and the Fed Repricing
The biggest story of the week was the deepening conflict between the US and Iran. The US carried out its thirteenth straight night of strikes on Iranian sites, while Houthi forces backed by Iran claimed attacks on Saudi oil tankers, part of what looks like a naval blockade. This raised fears that Gulf oil supply could be disrupted. Brent crude jumped more than 30% above pre-conflict levels, and this sparked worries about inflation. That changed how traders viewed gold. Instead of simply buying it as a safe haven, they began treating rising oil prices as a reason the Fed might need to keep interest rates high for longer. Odds for a July rate hike, priced by CME futures at around 34%, jumped to over 78% for a September hike. This shift hurt gold, which pays no interest, even though geopolitical risk remained high. It was an unusual moment where fear of higher rates outweighed fear of war.
Economic Data and Central Bank Signals
US economic data reinforced this hawkish mood. Weekly jobless claims dropped by the largest amount in almost sixty years, and flash PMI data for July showed private-sector activity growing at its fastest pace this year. Together, these numbers point to a resilient job market, giving the Fed more room to hold rates steady or even raise them. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged on Thursday but signalled it could hike in September, adding to a broader global trend of central banks staying firm. The Fed’s own decision, due next week, is now the market’s biggest focus, with traders divided on whether a surprise hike could happen.
Currency Markets
The Dollar Index strengthened through the week, rising from about 100.75 to a one-month high of 101.52, as tariff news and rate expectations pushed money into the dollar. It eased slightly by Friday, closing near 101.30. This stronger dollar, along with rising US Treasury yields — the 10-year yield touched a two-month high of 4.64% — put pressure on gold prices, since gold is priced in dollars. The Indian rupee followed other emerging-market currencies lower, slipping toward an eight-week low of about 96.89 per dollar as oil prices rose. It later recovered some ground after the RBI stepped in and foreign-currency deposits brought in more than $17 billion, ending the week roughly steady around 96.55.
Outlook
With the Fed’s decision coming up next week and no sign that Middle East tensions are cooling, gold and silver are likely to stay highly reactive to news. A softer tone from the Fed or fresh conflict in the Gulf could bring safe-haven buying back. But if the dollar and yields keep rising alongside hawkish Fed comments, prices could stay stuck in a narrow range for now. Key levels to watch: gold support between $3,950–4,000 and resistance at $4,150; silver support between $56.50–57.00 and resistance at $61.50–63.00.
If gold drops below $4,000 (~Rs 1,41,000), it may fall further to $3,900 (~Rs 1,38,000). But if it holds above $4,200, it could rally toward $4,500 (~Rs 1,55,000). For silver, a strong break above $63 (~Rs 2,35,000) could send prices toward $70–71 (~Rs 2,51,000–2,55,000). On the flip side, a drop below $55 (~Rs 2,14,000) could pull it down to $50 (~Rs 2,00,000).
International News
Vicenzaoro September 2026 Closes With Stronger International Footprint
The Five-Day Trade Show Recorded A 4% Increase In Total Visitors Compared With The September 2025 Edition, While International Attendance Rose By 9%.
Vicenzaoro September 2026 concluded on 8 September with further growth in visitor traffic and international participation, reinforcing its position as a key global meeting point for the jewellery, gemstones, precious metals and technology industries. Organised by Italian Exhibition Group (IEG), the five-day trade show recorded a 4% increase in total visitors compared with the September 2025 edition, while international attendance rose by 9%.
The edition marked the first major presentation of the expanded Vicenza Expo Centre following the opening of the new Hall 2. The upgraded infrastructure, combined with the show’s Boutique Show format, brought the jewellery supply chain together under one roof—from manufacturing technologies and machinery at T.Gold to finished jewellery, gemstones, packaging and related services.
International attendance reaches new markets
Vicenzaoro attracted visitors from 136 foreign countries, a 4% increase compared with September 2025. Attendance from Europe grew by 9%, while non-European participation also rose by 9%, reaching 91 countries. Visitors from the United States increased by 2%.
The largest international visitor groups came from:
- The United Kingdom.
- Germany.
- China.
- India.
- Romania.
- Switzerland.
- Spain.
- Denmark.
- Colombia.
- Belgium.
The strongest growth in visitor numbers was recorded from South Korea, Singapore, Kuwait, South Africa, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Indonesia, Cyprus and Saudi Arabia.
India’s presence among the top five international visitor markets underlines the importance of the country to Vicenzaoro’s global strategy and reflects the continued strength of business links between Italian manufacturers and the Indian jewellery trade.
“This growth confirms the work carried out during the transitional editions when construction of the new Hall 2 was underway,” said Matteo Farsura, head of IEG’s Jewellery & Fashion division. He noted that international attendance has risen steadily since September 2024 and, boosted by T.Gold, is now 12% higher despite an increasingly complex global environment.
MAECI and ICE programme delivers 910 buyers
The show’s international business programme, organised in collaboration with Italy’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MAECI) and the Italian Trade Agency, brought 700 hosted international buyers to Vicenza. A further 210 Italian buyers participated, taking the total number of hosted trade visitors to a record 910.
The buyers represented 73 countries and were reported to be 33% higher in number than at the September 2025 edition.
Farsura said the programme was designed not only to increase visitor numbers but also to identify buyers according to the profiles of exhibiting companies and the markets they serve. The network of approximately 70 Italian Trade Agency offices worldwide played a significant role in supporting the initiative.
New Hall 2 reshapes the exhibition
The opening of Hall 2 represented a significant milestone in IEG’s development of the Vicenza Expo Centre. The two-storey facility covers approximately 23,000 square metres and connects Halls 1, 3, 4 and 6, improving movement across the exhibition complex and creating a more integrated environment for exhibitors and visitors.
The expanded layout hosted 1,300 exhibiting brands from 40 countries, with international exhibitors accounting for 45% of the total. T.Gold, the specialised exhibition dedicated to jewellery manufacturing technologies and machinery, was brought inside the Expo Centre for the first time, strengthening the show’s ability to present the complete value chain in a single location.
In a period marked by uncertain demand, margin pressure and changing consumer expectations, the format enabled Vicenzaoro to combine commercial activity with a focus on innovation, production efficiency and future market trends.
CIBJO centenary adds global relevance
A major feature of the September edition was the centenary congress of CIBJO, the World Jewellery Confederation. Led by President Gaetano Cavalieri, CIBJO brings together the international jewellery industry around standards, nomenclature, responsible business practices and consumer confidence.
Held in Vicenza to mark the organisation’s 100th anniversary, the congress attracted more than 600 delegates, including representatives of luxury groups, mining companies, retailers, laboratories and other parts of the global supply chain.
The congress addressed several of the industry’s most pressing issues, including sustainability, market transparency, the classification of natural and laboratory-grown diamonds and coloured stones, and the need to strengthen consumer trust. Its presence further positioned Vicenzaoro as a forum where businesses, associations and institutions can discuss the structural changes shaping the jewellery sector.
Networking remains central to the show
Beyond its exhibition and sourcing functions, Vicenzaoro continued to emphasise the value of professional relationships. The event provided a platform for companies, buyers, institutions, associations and international industry leaders to exchange views and develop new commercial connections.
This networking-led approach has become one of the show’s defining characteristics, allowing business discussions to extend beyond individual transactions to wider conversations on market development, technology, distribution and consumer behaviour.
The September edition also featured the ninth edition of VO Vintage, which brought together 53 selected exhibitors specialising in vintage and modern jewellery and watches. The event, open to the general public, combined sales with an educational programme featuring expert speakers and initiatives aimed at strengthening interest in watchmaking culture.
Broad industry support
Vicenzaoro’s strategic partners include MAECI and the Italian Trade Agency. Its international partners are CIBJO, GJEPC India, the Hong Kong Jewellery & Jade Manufacturers Association and Francéclat.
National partners include Confindustria Federorafi, Confcommercio Federpreziosi, Confartigianato Orafi, CNA Orafi, Club degli Orafi Italia, Confimi Industria’s Gold and Silver Category, Assogemme, Assocoral and AFEMO. The regions of Sicily and Campania also participated as institutional representatives.
IEG’s jewellery calendar will continue with JGTD—Jewellery, Gems and Technology in Dubai—from 27 to 29 October 2026. Italy’s jewellery industry will meet next at the Valenza Gem Forum on 22 October and the Italian Jewellery Summit in Arezzo on 3 December.
The next edition of Vicenzaoro and T.Gold will take place from 15 to 19 January 2027, while VO Vintage is scheduled for 15 to 18 January 2027.
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