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Gold edges higher toward $4,140 on Fed rate cut expectations

Gold edges higher toward $4,140 in early Asian trade on Tuesday, supported by mounting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

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Market pricing now puts the odds of a December cut at nearly 79%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Attention will turn to key US data releases later today, including ADP Employment Change, Retail Sales, and Producer Price figures.

XAU/USD has regained momentum as dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials fuel demand for the metal. Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted on Monday that recent indicators point to a sufficiently soft labor market to justify another 25-basis-point cut in December.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed the sentiment, saying the US economy is showing signs of vulnerability and that policy easing would help support labor-market stability.

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International News

AGTA appeals US Government to Scrap 10% Import Tariff on Gemstones

Trade body seeks exemption for coloured gemstones under new temporary tariff regime, with potential implications for diamonds.

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The American Gem Trade Association (AGTA) has formally appealed to the US government to remove the newly imposed 10% global import tariff on gemstones, and potentially diamonds, warning of its impact on the trade.

The tariff was announced on February 20 after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, the administration introduced a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The measure will remain in effect for 150 days unless Congress votes to extend it, though further tariff mechanisms have not been ruled out.

AGTA has submitted a formal request to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), urging that precious and semiprecious coloured gemstones be added to the exception list under Annex I or Annex II. The association argued that these stones are not mined domestically in the US and therefore should qualify for exemption.

Previously, AGTA’s lobbying efforts contributed to diamonds and gemstones being included in Annex III — a list of products eligible for potential exemption from duties for “aligned” countries. This had placed Indian diamonds and gemstones on track for relief following a prospective US-India trade agreement. However, it remains unclear whether Annex III provisions apply under the new tariff framework that recently took effect.

If the across-the-board exemption request is denied, AGTA has asked the USTR to confirm whether Annex III remains a viable pathway for country-specific tariff relief on coloured gemstones.

While the current petition focuses on coloured gemstones, AGTA noted that trade experts believe any exemption granted in this category could effectively extend to diamonds, as seen in past trade agreements such as the US–European Union deal.

“We will continue to work tirelessly toward eliminating tariffs on gemstone imports into the US. We remain fully committed to this effort — giving up is not an option,” said AGTA President Bruce Bridges and CEO John Ford.

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