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Gold edges higher toward $4,140 on Fed rate cut expectations

Gold edges higher toward $4,140 in early Asian trade on Tuesday, supported by mounting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

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Market pricing now puts the odds of a December cut at nearly 79%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Attention will turn to key US data releases later today, including ADP Employment Change, Retail Sales, and Producer Price figures.

XAU/USD has regained momentum as dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials fuel demand for the metal. Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted on Monday that recent indicators point to a sufficiently soft labor market to justify another 25-basis-point cut in December.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed the sentiment, saying the US economy is showing signs of vulnerability and that policy easing would help support labor-market stability.

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International News

Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector

Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments

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Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.

We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:

  • Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
  • Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
  • Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
  • Energy Sector Headwinds

Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:

  • Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.

Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation

The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.

  • US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
  • Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.

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