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Precious metals are dancing to the tunes of rate cut bets AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
  • Gold and silver prices rebounded after dovish remarks from Fed governors rekindled hopes of a U.S. rate cut in December, reaching their highest level in over a week despite a strong dollar.
  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller yesterday that the employment market is bad enough to justify another quarter-point rate decrease in December, but further action would rely on an impending flood of data that has been delayed by the government shutdown.
  • Waller’s remarks follow New York Fed President John Williams‘ Friday prediction that U.S. interest rates could decline “in the near term.” According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are now projecting an 81% chance of a Fed rate drop in December, up from 40% last week.
  • Investor attention now shifts to September retail sales and PPI data, which are due later today, as well as jobless claims on Wednesday. These data are anticipated to give investors a better understanding of the US economy’s condition and the future course of Fed interest rates.

Technical Triggers 

  • Gold has been trading in the range of $4000 (~Rs 121,000) and $4200 (~Rs 127,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.
  • Silver has been trading in the range of $49 (~Rs 150,000) to $53 (~Rs 160,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.

Support and Resistance

CategorySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$4000/oz$4200/oz
Indian Gold₹121,000 / 10 gm₹127,000 / 10 gm
International Silver$49/oz$53/oz
Indian Silver₹150,000 / kg₹160,000 / kg
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International News

MCX Gold, Silver Rise Despite Global Weakness; US Data, Iran Tensions Keep Bullion Markets On Edge

While Domestic Gold and Silver Prices Edged Higher On MCX, International Spot Gold Slipped Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Negotiations, Inflation Concerns

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Gold and silver prices witnessed mixed momentum on May 28, with domestic futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trading marginally higher even as international spot gold prices remained under pressure. The divergence reflects cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, and expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States.

MCX gold futures for June delivery rose modestly by Rs. 215 to Rs. 1,57,898 per 10 grams, while silver futures for July delivery gained Rs. 2,000 to trade at Rs. 2,72,628 per kilogram in early trade. The domestic uptick was supported by weakness in the US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key macroeconomic developments.

However, global spot gold prices extended losses for a second consecutive session as investors remained wary of the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices and the possibility of prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Analysts noted that fading hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran have revived concerns around oil supply disruptions, higher crude prices, and inflation risks — factors that continue to influence precious metals.

According to market experts, gold has struggled to regain strong upside momentum despite its safe-haven appeal, as rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar have reduced investor appetite for non-yielding assets like bullion. Silver, meanwhile, remained under pressure globally after recent military developments in southern Iran weakened expectations of an immediate resolution to regional tensions.

Investors are now closely watching key US macroeconomic indicators, including ADP employment figures, GDP growth data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. These data points are expected to offer fresh direction on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, which remains a crucial driver for gold and silver prices.

With geopolitical risks still elevated and inflation concerns persisting, bullion markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term as traders await clearer signals on both diplomacy and monetary policy.

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