International News
Precious metals are dancing to the tunes of rate cut bets AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Gold and silver prices rebounded after dovish remarks from Fed governors rekindled hopes of a U.S. rate cut in December, reaching their highest level in over a week despite a strong dollar.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller yesterday that the employment market is bad enough to justify another quarter-point rate decrease in December, but further action would rely on an impending flood of data that has been delayed by the government shutdown.
- Waller’s remarks follow New York Fed President John Williams‘ Friday prediction that U.S. interest rates could decline “in the near term.” According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are now projecting an 81% chance of a Fed rate drop in December, up from 40% last week.
- Investor attention now shifts to September retail sales and PPI data, which are due later today, as well as jobless claims on Wednesday. These data are anticipated to give investors a better understanding of the US economy’s condition and the future course of Fed interest rates.
Technical Triggers
- Gold has been trading in the range of $4000 (~Rs 121,000) and $4200 (~Rs 127,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.
- Silver has been trading in the range of $49 (~Rs 150,000) to $53 (~Rs 160,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.
Support and Resistance
| Category | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $4000/oz | $4200/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹121,000 / 10 gm | ₹127,000 / 10 gm |
| International Silver | $49/oz | $53/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹150,000 / kg | ₹160,000 / kg |
International News
Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector
Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments
Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.
We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:
- Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
- Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
- Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
- Energy Sector Headwinds
Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:
- Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.
Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation
The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.
- US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
- Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.
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