The US jewelry sector continues its contraction, registering a 3.4% year-on-year decline in the total number of retail, wholesale, and manufacturing businesses, according to the latest data from the Jewelers Board of Trade (JBT). The sector has shown a consistent quarterly decline since at least Q3 2024, suggesting persistent structural challenges. Notably, the sharpest reduction in Q1 2025 was seen among manufacturers, while retailers and wholesalers also reported significant drops despite new business openings.

Key Findings–Overall Business Contraction:The total number of businesses fell by approximately 800 to 22,330 — a 3.4% decrease year-on-year.

Previous quarters reported similar declines:Q3 2024: -3.3%,Q4 2024: -3.2%

Despite the overall decline, 68 new retail jewelers opened during Q1 2025, showing some resilience and entrepreneurial activity in pockets of the sector.

The US jewelry sector is in a state of managed decline — not a collapse, but an ongoing reduction driven by structural changes in production, distribution, and consumer behavior. The steady quarterly decline suggests that without substantial adaptation, the number of businesses will continue to shrink.

Gold prices are fluctuating between $3270 (~Rs 94300) and $3380 (~Rs 96200), indicating contradictory signals from US-China trade talks.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that trade talks with China are now occurring, contradicting Chinese allegations that no discussions have taken place to resolve the ongoing trade war.

On Friday, China exempted several US products from its 125% tariffs, indicating a potential resolution to the trade conflict between the two countries.

Long-term support comes from risk aversion demand, while tariffs and geopolitical turmoil will keep gold prices stable.

Gold buyers seize control as risk-off sentiment spreads through financial markets. US dollar and Treasury yields fall as speculators anticipate further Fed rate cuts. Traders are bracing for a critical US data week, with GDP, Core PCE, and NFP all in focus.

Technical Triggers      

The creation of a “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern in the weekly charts, indicates a probable uptrend reversal, which was an intriguing technical component of gold’s price movement last week.   If prices sustain below $3300 (~Rs 95000) this week, they may fall 50% to $3240 (~Rs 93000) and 61.8% to $3175 (~Rs 91500).

Support and Resistance:

A powerful rally in gold prices has propelled the combined market capitalization of the world’s 50 most valuable mining companies to $1.4 trillion, offsetting sharp declines in copper and lithium stocks amid ongoing global trade tensions.

The sector added nearly $80 billion in value in early 2025, partially clawing back losses sparked by new U.S. tariffs that rattled global markets. While the rebound marks a positive turn, overall mining valuations remain approximately $400 billion below their 2022 peak.

The rankings, based on data as of April 17 to avoid early-quarter market volatility, show precious metals leading the resurgence. Gold soared to a record $3,420 an ounce, reshaping the industry’s top tier. Gold-related firms now represent one-third of the Top 50’s total value, and six new companies — the highest quarterly addition since tracking began — entered the rankings, helping Canada surpass Australia in total miner valuations for the first time.

Meanwhile, copper miners bore the brunt of commodity headwinds. A steep decline in copper prices erased $53 billion in market value, pushing out names like Lundin Mining and Poland’s KGHM. Their exits made way for gold-focused entrants such as Lundin Gold, which doubled its valuation to $10.1 billion.

South African producers Harmony Gold and Goldfields also saw gains on the back of the gold boom, while Russia’s Polyus and Norilsk Nickel maintained their standings despite facing ongoing sanctions and limited global trading access.

In contrast, lithium’s decline was stark. Once represented by six companies in the Top 50, only Chilean miner SQM remains following a price collapse that decimated market caps across the battery metals space. Rare earth companies continued to struggle, with only China Northern Rare Earth retaining a spot in the rankings.

The changing composition of the Top 50 underscores gold’s growing dominance amid persistent economic uncertainty. With Uzbekistan’s state-owned Navoi Mining preparing for a high-profile IPO, more gold miners could join the elite ranks in the months ahead.