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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.

In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

Recycled diamonds, often seen as a secondary supply source, are not expected to significantly impact the market within the next ten years. They are projected to contribute less than 10% of the total supply of natural polished diamonds. This limited impact underscores the industry’s reliance on primary sources and the inherent stability provided by constrained supply.

On the demand side, the future of natural diamonds is influenced by global economic factors and changing consumer preferences. The report identifies three key dynamics that will shape demand: the continuing rise of brands, the adoption of lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), and the evolving desires of the growing middle class in Asia.

The report notes that the natural diamond industry has a unique opportunity to catalyse collaboration across the value chain. It calls for industry participants to unite in restoring the desire for natural diamonds, stimulating demand in new demographics, and creating new purchase occasions. This collective effort is seen as essential to maintaining the desirability and value of natural diamonds in a competitive market.

Effective marketing strategies and a clear strategic direction are pivotal for the industry’s future. The report emphasises the need for continuous efforts to build desirability among US consumers and to expand market presence in Asia. By leveraging historical marketing successes and adapting to contemporary consumer trends, the natural diamond industry can navigate the current challenges and secure a bright future.

As the natural diamond industry faces a critical moment, the insights from BCG’s report provide a roadmap for navigating the evolving landscape. With a focus on strategic collaboration, effective marketing, and adapting to shifting demand dynamics, the industry can harness the opportunities presented by constrained supply and changing consumer preferences.

The future of natural diamonds, while challenging, holds the promise of transformation and renewed growth, the BCG report notes.

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JB Insights

Fancy Color Diamonds are  rewriting the rules of luxury investing

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In a year when the traditional diamond market is under pressure, a dazzling niche is quietly rewriting the rules of luxury investing: fancy color diamonds. From the cerulean depths of the “Mediterranean Blue” to the rarest blushes of pink, these gems are captivating collectors, connoisseurs, and investors alike—proving that true beauty, especially when rare, never goes out of style.

A Market Apart: The Allure of Rarity

While white diamonds are facing plummeting prices and dwindling demand, fancy color diamonds are enjoying a renaissance. Just last week, Sotheby’s sold the 10-carat “The Mediterranean Blue” diamond for a staggering $21 million, underscoring the robust appetite for these vibrant stones.

With fewer diamonds being mined every year, access—not just choice—is becoming the new luxury. Investors are increasingly turning to fancy colors because fewer and fewer diamonds are being mined today. We are approaching a point where acquiring a fancy color diamond will no longer be about choice, but about having accessThese diamonds continue to stand out as the ultimate way to preserve and protect wealth. They have always been a remarkable investment, and as time goes on, this asset class only proves its stability and long-term value.

Pink Diamonds: The Ultimate Trophy

Among fancy colors, pink diamonds are the uncontested queens. Their supply has been dramatically reduced in recent years. The legendary Argyle mine, once the world’s largest source of pink diamonds, closed in 2020. Sanctions on Russian diamonds have further squeezed the market, particularly for purples and other rare hues from the Sakha Republic.

A recent GIA survey of 90,000 certified fancy color diamonds revealed that a mere quarter of pinks possess the coveted Type IIa purity—diamonds virtually free of nitrogen, often with an ethereal glow. The rarest pinks, like those from India’s Golconda mines, owe their color to nitrogen, while the vast majority—99.5%—are colored by “plastic deformation,” a phenomenon where immense subterranean pressure creates those signature graining lines and breathtaking shades.

The Investment Case: Beauty, Rarity, and Resilience

As global uncertainty grows, fancy color diamonds are emerging as a new safe haven for wealth. Their price performance, scarcity, and timeless glamour make them irresistible. Auction houses are seeing healthy, stable demand, and private sales are thriving. The urgency to secure these gems is palpable, with buyers increasingly viewing them as both wearable art and a shield against volatility.

The Verdict

In an era where rarity reigns supreme and beauty is an asset class, fancy color diamonds are more than just jewels—they’re a statement, an investment, and a legacy. For those seeking the ultimate in exclusivity, the message is clear: the time to fall in love with color is now.

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JB Insights

Natural diamonds are more than just an investment

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Russell Mehta reflects on the diamond industry’s evolution, noting a shift from romantic experiences to transactional purchases due to increased transparency and lab-grown alternatives. While the market faces fluctuations, natural diamonds retain intrinsic value, rarity, and emotional significance, distinguishing them from commodities like gold.

Consumer perspectives have shifted significantly over the 40years that I have been in the diamond business. When I started out in the early 1980s, buying a diamond was a romantic, emotional experience. Its mystique was linked to its rarity, its perceived uniqueness, and the joy of discovery during the shopping process. This traditional view of diamonds has shifted with the rise of certification, transparency, and the accessibility offered by the internet. The diamond market has become more commoditized, where consumers can compare prices, examine flaws, and get a better understanding of what they are buying, often without stepping into a store. The process of acquiring a diamond, once filled with romance, has become increasingly transactional.

Recent reports have raised doubts over diamonds as viable investments, often comparing them to gold or other financial assets. Unlike other luxury items, such as designer bags, diamonds’ value comes from a combination of art, history, and sentiment—an acquisition that can be passed down through generations. I own a diamond from my grandfather, and its value to me is immeasurable; no price tag could ever capture its significance.

Unlike gold, with which diamonds are erroneously compared to, or art, diamonds occupy a middle ground. While not as liquid as gold or as illiquid as art, natural diamonds retain intrinsic value over time.

For example, I have collected numerous works of art, but only a handful have appreciated significantly over two decades. This unpredictability does not make the art any less valuable to me, but it highlights the varied nature of investments. I cherish the stories behind my art collection—how I discovered each artist and acquired each piece alongside my wife. That does not mean diamonds do not serve as a form of security in times of crisis. History has shown that in turbulent moments, diamonds have been portable assets that can be used to re-establish stability.

The value of diamonds can fluctuate, but it doesn’t depreciate—nor does it get damaged—as quickly as other commodities. According to a Bain & Co report, on an average, prices have increased by 3% year-on-year over the last 35 years.

The rarity of natural diamonds will only grow, as their supply is limited. No significant new diamond deposits have been discovered in the past two decades and the current mines are gradually depleting. The natural pink diamonds that the Argyle mine in Australia produced over 30 years, for instance, are now coveted collectors’ items, providing extraordinary returns as the Argyle mine is now closed.

The introduction of lab-grown diamonds has added a layer of variety to the industry. These diamonds, created in a controlled environment, are more affordable and abundant compared to natural diamonds. While they share the same physical properties, they lack the rarity, preciousness, and emotional weight of natural diamonds. They follow Moore’s Law—as technology improves, their production becomes cheaper, their quality better, and their size larger—further reinforcing their status as a manufactured commodity, rather than a unique and naturally-available gem.

Their rise reflects the broader trend of commoditization in the diamond industry. Some consumers may be drawn to the lower price point of lab-grown diamonds. For example, it may work for the 25-27 year-old on his—dare I say—first marriage proposal. But for his 10th wedding anniversary, his gift would be the real thing, a natural diamond.

After an unprecedented boom in 2021 and 2022, the market has contracted, with the value of global retail-studded diamond jewellery declining from $90 billion to approximately $75 billion in 2024. This was due in part to slowing luxury demand in China and some cannibalisation from lab-grown diamonds in the U.S. While the diamond market may go through its cycles, the emotional and lasting value of real diamonds will continue to endure.

I see this as an industry that’s in the business of bringing joy to consumers, through birthdays, engagements, anniversaries and gifting. Life is an assimilation of memories, time spent with loved ones and natural diamonds are attached to landmarks in life. It’s the only commodity that’s a brand in itself.

                                                 

–  News Courtesy-TOI

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JB Insights

Why a Natural Diamond Solitaire transcends the 4Cs

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by Jignesh MehtaMD & Founder, Divine Solitaires

In a world of transient trends and mass-produced possessions, there remain a few timeless treasures that carry a value far beyond their material worth. A natural diamond solitaire is one such enduring symbol — an extraordinary gift of nature that offers more than just aesthetic appeal or technical excellence. It represents emotion, legacy, and an investment destined to shine through generations.

While the classic 4Cs — Cut, Clarity, Colour, and Carat — have long been the benchmarks of diamond selection, today’s discerning consumers are seeking more. Conscious buying behaviours and evolving consumer preferences are redefining luxury, and in this dynamic environment, the natural diamond solitaire continues to hold a singular, unassailable allure.

Emotional and Legacy Value: A Diamond Beyond Compare

A diamond purchase is rarely an impulse. It is often tied to significant personal milestones — engagements, anniversaries, or achievements that mark new beginnings. Increasingly, consumers are choosing solitaires not only to celebrate relationships but also to honour their own journey. Be it career milestones, personal growth, or financial independence, the emotional resonance attached to a solitaire makes it a cherished possession.

Legacy gifting is another rising trend. Families are investing in solitaire diamonds not merely as heirlooms but as financial assets for the next generation. These stones carry the dual value of sentiment and security, ensuring the bond of familial love endures alongside wealth preservation.

At Divine Solitaires, we have observed a deepening of this emotional connection over the years, as buyers seek possessions with meaning, permanence, and personal significance.

Light, Precision, and the Art of Brilliance

A diamond’s true magic lies not in its size but in the way it interacts with light. Its brilliance, fire, and scintillation, collectively termed as light performance which determine its visual splendour. Every cut, every facet, and every angle contribute to this captivating play of light.

At Divine Solitaires, we use advanced optical analysis to guarantee that every diamond meets the highest standards of light performance. Going beyond the conventional triple excellent cut, each of our stones showcases the perfect 8 Hearts and 8 Arrows pattern — a hallmark of flawless symmetry, alignment, and proportion that maximises sparkle under every light and setting.

Integrity in Certification and Grading

For the modern luxury consumer, fewer but finer possessions define true indulgence. Precision, authenticity, and transparency have become non-negotiable expectations. Divine Solitaires ensures that every solitaire undergoes a rigorous 123 parameters quality check process aligned with the highest global standards.

Our commitment to trust is further reinforced through detailed quality certification and India’s first-ever Nationwide Standard & Price Index for solitaires. This pioneering initiative brings unprecedented structure, consistency, and credibility to solitaire pricing — offering buyers the reassurance of lasting value and resale integrity.

The Unreported Factors:

Certain diamond characteristics like Hearts & Arrows, Luster, Overtones, Light Performance remain unseen to the untrained eye but significantly influence both aesthetic appeal and investment value. Excessive fluorescence, for example, can cause a diamond to appear hazy under UV light, while internal graining may affect its visual purity.

At Divine Solitaires, our meticulous curation process excludes diamonds with such imperfections. Our selection process ensures that every solitaire we offer upholds the highest standards of quality and educating consumers along the way about these finer, often overlooked nuances of diamond selection.

A Symbol in Beauty, Meaning, and Legacy

A Divine Solitaires diamond is more than an ordinary diamond. It is a symbol of technical brilliance, ethical assurance, and enduring emotional significance. Every stone is a promise to shine not just in the light, but through the memories, milestones, and moments that shape a lifetime.

As the world of luxury evolves, one truth remains: a natural diamond solitaire will always transcend its 4Cs, holding its place as an emblem of beauty, meaning, and legacy.

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