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Future of natural diamonds challenging; holds promise of transformation: BCG report

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A new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, unveils the critical factors that will shape the future of the natural diamond market.

In an era marked by rapid changes and emerging challenges, the natural diamond industry stands at a pivotal juncture. A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), commissioned by De Beers Group, sheds light on the critical factors shaping the future of the natural diamond sector. With primary diamond supply projected to decline and demand dynamics evolving, the industry is poised for a significant transformation, it notes.

The cornerstone of the natural diamond industry’s future is the anticipated decline in primary supply. The report highlights that the primary production of natural diamonds is expected to decrease by approximately 1% CAGR over the next decade. This decline is driven by the diminishing yields from ageing mines, a scarcity of new discoveries, and constrained exploration budgets over the past ten years. While there is potential for some increase through brownfield expansions, the overall outlook suggests a tightening of supply.

Recycled diamonds, often seen as a secondary supply source, are not expected to significantly impact the market within the next ten years. They are projected to contribute less than 10% of the total supply of natural polished diamonds. This limited impact underscores the industry’s reliance on primary sources and the inherent stability provided by constrained supply.

On the demand side, the future of natural diamonds is influenced by global economic factors and changing consumer preferences. The report identifies three key dynamics that will shape demand: the continuing rise of brands, the adoption of lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), and the evolving desires of the growing middle class in Asia.

The report notes that the natural diamond industry has a unique opportunity to catalyse collaboration across the value chain. It calls for industry participants to unite in restoring the desire for natural diamonds, stimulating demand in new demographics, and creating new purchase occasions. This collective effort is seen as essential to maintaining the desirability and value of natural diamonds in a competitive market.

Effective marketing strategies and a clear strategic direction are pivotal for the industry’s future. The report emphasises the need for continuous efforts to build desirability among US consumers and to expand market presence in Asia. By leveraging historical marketing successes and adapting to contemporary consumer trends, the natural diamond industry can navigate the current challenges and secure a bright future.

As the natural diamond industry faces a critical moment, the insights from BCG’s report provide a roadmap for navigating the evolving landscape. With a focus on strategic collaboration, effective marketing, and adapting to shifting demand dynamics, the industry can harness the opportunities presented by constrained supply and changing consumer preferences.

The future of natural diamonds, while challenging, holds the promise of transformation and renewed growth, the BCG report notes.

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JB Insights

Dhanteras 2026: Strong Footfalls, Value-Led Growth Across India’s Jewellery Trade

Dhanteras 2026 opened on a confident note for India’s jewellery industry. Retailers and industry bodies report higher footfalls, double-digit value growth and a visible shift in what customers are buying. Volumes, however, are largely flat, and the growth is being carried by price.

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Market Size and Growth

The Gem & Jewellery Council (GJC) estimates India’s Dhanteras gold business at roughly ₹60,000 crore on preliminary assessment. Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC, says value growth is expected at 15–20% over last year, with volumes “almost at the same level.” He calls it “a very encouraging start for the jewellery industry.”

Retailers are reporting stronger numbers. Suvankar Sen, MD & CEO, Senco Gold Ltd, reports sales value up over 25% year on year, with higher store footfalls. Dr. Saurabh Gadgil, CMD, PNG Jewellers, says industry indications point to 25–30% incremental performance. He attributes this to easing prices, strong pre-Dhanteras bookings and a long Diwali weekend. Jignesh Mehta, Founder & MD, Divine Solitaires, reports 30% growth in festive sales.

What Customers Are Buying

  • Gold: Sachin Jain, Regional CEO India, World Gold Council, notes strong walk-ins across retail markets. Buyers are choosing jewellery, coins, bars, ETFs and digital gold. He says the recent price moderation has given buyers relief.
  • Diamonds: Senco Gold’s Sen says diamond jewellery sales “have grown impressively.” Divine Solitaires’ Mehta points to rising interest in natural diamond solitaires for gifting, milestones and self-purchase, led by smaller solitaires and lightweight pieces.
  • Silver and multi-metal: Ansh Anand, CEO, Punjab Jewels, reports strong interest across gold, diamond, platinum and silver. PNG’s Gadgil adds that silver jewellery and articles are in high demand.
  • Men’s jewellery: Sen flags growing interest, with Senco’s Aham line catering to men who see jewellery as personal style.

Key Trends

1. Lighter, everyday designs are gaining. Sen sees growing interest in lighter, more versatile designs alongside traditional gold and coins. Jayantilal Challani, Chairman, Challani Group of Companies, observes a visible shift from heavy traditional jewellery to everyday elegance.

2. Value-conscious, disciplined buying. Challani describes buyer mood as “calculated optimism and value-driven purchasing,” with high gold rates prompting disciplined shopping. Punjab Jewels’ Anand says customers are prioritising design, craftsmanship and quality alongside investment value, and festive enthusiasm has held despite elevated metal prices.

3. Trust and transparency matter more. Divine Solitaires’ Mehta says consumers place greater emphasis on transparency, authenticity and quality assurance. He cites the company’s 123-parameter Quality Guarantee and standardised pricing as the response.

4. Old gold exchange is a growth lever. PNG’s Gadgil says exchange is playing a big role, including in tier 2 and tier 3 cities.

5. Weddings and savings-led purchases. Sen reports strong participation from wedding customers and from families buying jewellery as savings.

Outlook

Sentiment is positive heading into Diwali and the wedding season. The WGC’s Jain says the day’s response “offers an encouraging outlook for the year end.” Gadgil notes that sales usually pick up in the second half of Dhanteras, so early figures may understate the final tally. Challani adds that grassroots spirit remains intact, which gives hope to jewellers who sell big and heavy pieces.

Bottom line: Dhanteras 2026 is a value-led recovery. Price easing, wedding demand, diamond and silver momentum and strong festive bookings are driving growth, while volumes hold steady. Retailers who combine lighter designs, transparent pricing and exchange offers are best placed to gain.

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JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

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