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Elevated rate cut expectation boosts precious metal prices AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Gold and silver rose to over two-week highs, as the dollar declined and the opportunity cost of storing bullion decreased due to predictions of a looser US policy. Three more cuts are expected before the end of 2026, and markets currently price in an 85% chance of a 25-bps cut in December, a significant increase from approximately 30% a week ago.
  • When assessing the direction of rates, traders continue to give priority to the wider run of weak demand indicators and dovish Fed commentary because the economic data mix was uneven but still consistent with policy easing. Initial jobless claims were surprisingly lower, and durable goods orders came in stronger despite other readings signaling cooling.
  • Reports that Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, is the front-runner to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve raised expectations because investors believe that Hassett will support President Donald Trump’s desire for lower interest rates.
Technical Triggers  
  • Gold has again attempted to touch $4200 (~Rs 126,000) resistance of its rangebound momentum. Prices would need a solid trigger for prices to climb above $4200, if it does, next resistance would be $4245 (~Rs 127,800). If it doesn’t, then prices can fall back to $4100 (~Rs 123,000).
  • Silver has again attempted to touch the resistance zone of $53.5-54 (~Rs 161,000-162,000), if it sustains, we can see rally towards $56 (~Rs 170,000). If it doesn’t sustain and rebounds back, we can see profit-booking towards $50 (~Rs 153,000).

Support and Resistance

CommoditySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$4100/oz$4200/oz
Indian Gold₹123,000 / 10 gm₹127,000 / 10 gm
International Silver$50/oz$54/oz
Indian Silver₹153,000 / kg₹162,000 / kg
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International News

AGTA appeals US Government to Scrap 10% Import Tariff on Gemstones

Trade body seeks exemption for coloured gemstones under new temporary tariff regime, with potential implications for diamonds.

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The American Gem Trade Association (AGTA) has formally appealed to the US government to remove the newly imposed 10% global import tariff on gemstones, and potentially diamonds, warning of its impact on the trade.

The tariff was announced on February 20 after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, the administration introduced a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The measure will remain in effect for 150 days unless Congress votes to extend it, though further tariff mechanisms have not been ruled out.

AGTA has submitted a formal request to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), urging that precious and semiprecious coloured gemstones be added to the exception list under Annex I or Annex II. The association argued that these stones are not mined domestically in the US and therefore should qualify for exemption.

Previously, AGTA’s lobbying efforts contributed to diamonds and gemstones being included in Annex III — a list of products eligible for potential exemption from duties for “aligned” countries. This had placed Indian diamonds and gemstones on track for relief following a prospective US-India trade agreement. However, it remains unclear whether Annex III provisions apply under the new tariff framework that recently took effect.

If the across-the-board exemption request is denied, AGTA has asked the USTR to confirm whether Annex III remains a viable pathway for country-specific tariff relief on coloured gemstones.

While the current petition focuses on coloured gemstones, AGTA noted that trade experts believe any exemption granted in this category could effectively extend to diamonds, as seen in past trade agreements such as the US–European Union deal.

“We will continue to work tirelessly toward eliminating tariffs on gemstone imports into the US. We remain fully committed to this effort — giving up is not an option,” said AGTA President Bruce Bridges and CEO John Ford.

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