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Elevated rate cut expectation boosts precious metal prices AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Gold and silver rose to over two-week highs, as the dollar declined and the opportunity cost of storing bullion decreased due to predictions of a looser US policy. Three more cuts are expected before the end of 2026, and markets currently price in an 85% chance of a 25-bps cut in December, a significant increase from approximately 30% a week ago.
  • When assessing the direction of rates, traders continue to give priority to the wider run of weak demand indicators and dovish Fed commentary because the economic data mix was uneven but still consistent with policy easing. Initial jobless claims were surprisingly lower, and durable goods orders came in stronger despite other readings signaling cooling.
  • Reports that Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, is the front-runner to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve raised expectations because investors believe that Hassett will support President Donald Trump’s desire for lower interest rates.
Technical Triggers  
  • Gold has again attempted to touch $4200 (~Rs 126,000) resistance of its rangebound momentum. Prices would need a solid trigger for prices to climb above $4200, if it does, next resistance would be $4245 (~Rs 127,800). If it doesn’t, then prices can fall back to $4100 (~Rs 123,000).
  • Silver has again attempted to touch the resistance zone of $53.5-54 (~Rs 161,000-162,000), if it sustains, we can see rally towards $56 (~Rs 170,000). If it doesn’t sustain and rebounds back, we can see profit-booking towards $50 (~Rs 153,000).

Support and Resistance

CommoditySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$4100/oz$4200/oz
Indian Gold₹123,000 / 10 gm₹127,000 / 10 gm
International Silver$50/oz$54/oz
Indian Silver₹153,000 / kg₹162,000 / kg
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International News

MCX Gold, Silver Rise Despite Global Weakness; US Data, Iran Tensions Keep Bullion Markets On Edge

While Domestic Gold and Silver Prices Edged Higher On MCX, International Spot Gold Slipped Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Negotiations, Inflation Concerns

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Gold and silver prices witnessed mixed momentum on May 28, with domestic futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trading marginally higher even as international spot gold prices remained under pressure. The divergence reflects cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, and expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States.

MCX gold futures for June delivery rose modestly by Rs. 215 to Rs. 1,57,898 per 10 grams, while silver futures for July delivery gained Rs. 2,000 to trade at Rs. 2,72,628 per kilogram in early trade. The domestic uptick was supported by weakness in the US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key macroeconomic developments.

However, global spot gold prices extended losses for a second consecutive session as investors remained wary of the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices and the possibility of prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Analysts noted that fading hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran have revived concerns around oil supply disruptions, higher crude prices, and inflation risks — factors that continue to influence precious metals.

According to market experts, gold has struggled to regain strong upside momentum despite its safe-haven appeal, as rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar have reduced investor appetite for non-yielding assets like bullion. Silver, meanwhile, remained under pressure globally after recent military developments in southern Iran weakened expectations of an immediate resolution to regional tensions.

Investors are now closely watching key US macroeconomic indicators, including ADP employment figures, GDP growth data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. These data points are expected to offer fresh direction on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, which remains a crucial driver for gold and silver prices.

With geopolitical risks still elevated and inflation concerns persisting, bullion markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term as traders await clearer signals on both diplomacy and monetary policy.

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