Speaking at the Bharat Diamond Bourse Symposium , Chinese strategist Liang Weizhang outlined a cautious but improving outlook for China’s diamond and jewellery sector.

China’s jewellery market expanded from RMB 720 bn in 2021 to RMB 820 bn in 2023, before easing to RMB 780 bn in 2024. Gold’s share of retail sales surged to 73% in 2024, while diamonds shrank to 6%, hit by falling marriage rates, weak sentiment, oversupply, and lab-grown competition. The natural diamond market contracted from RMB 100 bn in 2021 to RMB 43 bn in 2024, with imports plunging over 70% by volume.

Signs of recovery emerged in 2025: jewellery sales rose 11% YoY in H1, and polished diamond imports jumped 43.5% between January–July, with June–July showing triple-digit growth. Prices for some categories have stabilised after steep declines.

Hong Kong’s jewellery trade remains vital, with retail sales down 6.3% in H1 2025 but rebounding 6.8% in June, pointing to revived high-end spending.

Lab-grown diamonds are gaining ground, but surveys show a strong consumer preference for natural stones—57% in mainland China and 86% in Hong Kong favour natural diamonds for their luxury and investment value.

While price declines of 20–30% marked 2024, stability has returned in recent months. Liang predicts a gradual U-shaped recovery driven by inventory clearance, wedding demand, and supply adjustments. Long-term growth will rest on tightening global supply and China’s expanding middle class, though tariff risks remain a challenge.

China and India must navigate competition with collaboration according to Liang.The stress was on  resilience, adaptability, and global partnerships as keys to the industry’s future