International News
Gold, silver surge on Iran tensions, DOJ-US Fed crisis
Gold and silver prices hit record high – with with MCX Silver breaching the Rs.2.71 lakh/kg mark and MCX Gold soaring past Rs.1.42 lakh per 10 grams.This historic rally is not merely a localized spike but the result of a “perfect storm” of institutional instability in the United States and escalating conflict in the Middle East. US gold futures rose 1.88% to $4,585.56/oz, while Spot gold price was up 1.45% at $4,575.82/oz, after hitting a fresh record high of $4,601.17 level. Silver prices jumped 4.85% to $83.19, after surging nearly 10% last week. Silver rate today hit a record high of $83.88 level.
1. The Fed Crisis: Subpoenas and Institutional Risk
The primary driver of this volatility is an extraordinary escalation between the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Federal Reserve.
- The Subpoenas: Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the central bank has been served with grand jury subpoenas threatening a criminal indictment.3 This is ostensibly related to his June 2025 testimony regarding a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.
- The Market Interpretation: Investors have largely dismissed the “renovation” probe as a pretext. The market views this as a direct attack on Fed Independence, triggered by the bank’s refusal to align interest rate policies with the Trump administration’s demands.
- The Fallout: As the “institutional risk premium” usually reserved for emerging markets began to bleed into the U.S. dollar, the Dollar Index (DXY) snapped a five-day winning streak, retreating to 98.899. This weakened greenback made dollar-denominated bullion significantly cheaper for global buyers.
2. Geopolitical Ignition: The Iran Conflict
While the Fed crisis provided the monetary fuel, the “Safe Haven” bid was further intensified by deadly protests and military tensions in Iran.
- Domestic Unrest: Intensifying anti-government protests in Tehran, fueled by a collapsing currency and economic crisis, have raised the specter of regime instability.
- Trump Intervention: Looming threats of U.S. intervention in the Iranian conflict have heightened fears of a broader regional war. In times of such severe geopolitical friction, capital traditionally flees equities and currencies in favor of “hard assets.”
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Poland remained be the top buyer in the month (14t), while China intensified its pace of purchases: it’s t net purchase is the highest since December 2024 and extends its current buying run to 18 consecutive months. The Czech Republic shows similar consistency in purchases, having bought 3t in April, its 38th consecutive monthly purchase. Meanwhile, Russia continues its sales streak this month (6t), with y-t-d sales of 22t.
Reported activity in April and y-t-d was concentrated in:
- National Bank of Poland drove much of April’s buying activity, having bought 14t. This brings Poland’s y-t-d gold purchases to 45t with its gold reserves at 595t or about 30% of its total reserves.
- People’s Bank of China added 8t to its gold reserves during the month, highest since December 2024. Official gold reserves now stand at 9% of total reserves or around 2,322t. China has been consistently purchasing gold over the past 18 consecutive months.
- Czech National Bank’s modest but consistent 2t net purchases in April brings its gold reserves to 79t or 6% of its total reserves.
- Meanwhile, Central Bank of Uzbekistan sold 1t this month, though on a y-t-d basis, it remains a net purchaser (24t) and is second only to Poland. Uzbekistan’s reserves make up 88% of its total reserves or around 414t.
- Central Bank of Russia continued it recent streak of net sales for the fourth month with reported April net sales of 6t.
- March’s top seller, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey reported virtually flat gold reserves in April, with weekly data showing that short-term gold/USD swaps matured in April, leaving only longer-term (1-3 month) gold/USD swaps outstanding. More on Turkey’s recent reserve management operations can be found in our recently published Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026.
- Eastern European and Asian central banks continue to dominate gold purchases with consistent purchases. Over the past 36 months, both regions have purchased 12t and 11t per month on average collectively. Global central banks activity shows average net purchases of 29t over the same period
Ninth Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 will be released in June and will provide the latest insights into the central banking community’s strategic views on gold as a reserve asset. In our survey in 2025, central banks held favourable expectations on gold with 95% of respondents indicating that global central bank gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months, this is compared to 81% of respondents indicating the same in our 2024 survey. 43% of respondents believe that their own gold reserves will also increase over the same period in 2025, compared to 29% of respondents in our survey in 2024.
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