Gold is up by more than 60% y-t-d and is gearing up to have one of its strongest annual performances in decades.  Investment demand has been one of the key drivers, in response to a highly charged geopolitical environment, a weaker US dollar, and positive price momentum. At the same time, central bank demand remains strong.  Combined, their effect has more than offset any weakness seen in jewellery.

Looking to 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty.  The gold price today reflects consensus expectations for next year, but the global economy rarely ever plays out as planned.

Against this backdrop, our analysis shows that:

If economic growth slows and interest rates fall more than expected next year, gold could see gains between 5% and 15%.

In a more severe downturn marked by rising global risks, gold could see a marked increase between 15% and 30%.

Conversely, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth, reduce risk and push gold down between 5% and 20%.