International News
Gold hits ten-day highs above $4,050
Gold climbs above $4,050 to a ten-day high as uncertainty over the prolonged US government shutdown, soft economic data, and a weaker dollar drive renewed safe-haven demand.
Gold extended rebound in Asian trading on Monday, briefly crossing the $4,050 psychological mark to touch a ten-day high. The yellow metal’s momentum comes as traders await clarity on the resolution of the record US government shutdown, which has heightened concerns over the broader US economy.
While gold consolidates its recent gains, risk sentiment has seen a mild improvement amid optimism about the US government reopening and China’s move to temporarily suspend its export ban on certain dual-use materials, including gallium, germanium, and antimony.
However, investors remain cautious as the amended US spending package still requires approval from the House of Representatives before reaching President Donald Trump for signing — a process that could take several days. This uncertainty, coupled with persistent economic worries stemming from the prolonged shutdown, continues to lend support to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset.
A weakened US dollar and worries over a protracted US government shutdown continue to bolster the precious metal, increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Indeed, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which is impartial, the government shutdown could reduce GDP by 1 – 2% in the fourth quarter.
As U.S. data revealed a spike in October layoffs, traders also boosted their bets on a December rate decrease, they are now putting in a 67% possibility. The government and retail sectors experienced employment losses in October, and enterprises’ use of artificial intelligence and cost-cutting measures resulted in a spike in announced layoffs. According to private data released on Thursday, cost-cutting and the deployment of AI were the main causes of the US economy’s October job loss of 153,000, the most in 22 years.
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Geopolitical Optimism and Macro Shifts Drive Bullish Momentum
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
- Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.
Technical Triggers
- If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
- As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $70/oz : $82/oz  : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 257,000/kg |
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