Gold emerged as the top-performing major asset class in the first half of 2025, posting a remarkable 26% gain in US dollar terms, according to the World Gold Council’s (WGC) Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025. The surge was supported by a weaker US dollar, stable interest rates, and rising geopolitical tensions, which fuelled strong investment demand through ETFs, over-the-counter (OTC) markets, and global exchanges. Central banks also continued to add gold to their reserves, further boosting momentum.

Looking ahead, WGC’s Gold Valuation Framework outlines three potential scenarios for the remainder of the year:

• Base Case: Gold remains largely range-bound with a slight upside of 0–5%, supported by cautious rate cuts and lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.
• Bull Case: A deteriorating economic environment—such as stagflation or recession risks—could drive gold up another 10–15% as investors increase allocations to safe-haven assets.
• Bear Case: If geopolitical tensions ease and global economic growth strengthens, gold prices could decline 12–17%, pressured by rising yields, a stronger US dollar, and reduced investor hedging.

The first half of 2025 also saw gold set 26 new all-time highs, with daily trading volumes hitting a record $329 billion. Global gold ETF holdings rose sharply by 41%, reaching $383 billion. However, WGC cautioned that higher gold prices may be starting to weigh on consumer demand and could lead to increased gold recycling.

The Council noted that while gold’s underlying fundamentals remain strong, its trajectory in the second half will depend on the complex interplay of global trade shifts, inflation developments, and central bank policy actions.

• To date, President Donald Trump has written to 25 nations’ leaders informing them of higher tariff rates that will go into force on August 1. One of the most recent measures is a 30% import tax on goods from important partners like the EU and Mexico.
• Trump also issued a warning that nations that raise their tariffs in retaliation risk even higher US charges. However, he said that until the new tariffs are put into effect, he is still amenable to more talks with trading partners.
• For hints about the Federal Reserve’s rate path, investors are now waiting for the US CPI report, which is due later today.

Technical Triggers  

• Gold continues to trade in the range of $3300 (~Rs 96250) and $3400 (~Rs 98500). 
• Silver has given a breakout of its range of $37.5 (~Rs 108,500) and $35.5 (~Rs 105,000). The next target is $39 (~Rs 113,000) and $40 (~Rs 115,000).

Support and Resistance

Opening from September 20 to March 22, 2026, at the V&A’s South Kensington location, this marks the first UK exhibition solely dedicated to Marie Antoinette.

Among the dazzling highlights are pieces believed to have been smuggled out of France before her execution, including a natural pearl and diamond pendant that fetched $36 million in 2018, and a double-ribbon bow brooch.

A central exhibit is the priceless Sutherland Riviere-style diamond necklace, featuring 20 large old brilliant-cut diamonds, some of them rare Type IIa Golconda stones. This necklace is famously linked to Marie Antoinette and the infamous Affair of the Diamond Necklace scandal of 1785. The exhibition will delve into this historical fraud, in which an extravagant diamond necklace—originally commissioned for King Louis XV’s mistress Madame du Barry—was illicitly acquired. Though Marie Antoinette was innocent, the public blamed her, further fueling anti-monarchy sentiment leading up to the French Revolution. While the original Boehmer and Bassenge necklace was broken up, it’s widely believed that some of its diamonds found their way into the Sutherland necklace. A replica of the original necklace will also be on display.

The Sutherland diamonds, long held by British aristocracy, were acquired by the V&A in 2022. The exhibition will feature approximately 250 objects, including exceptional loans from the Chateau de Versailles, offering a rare glimpse into the queen’s life through richly embellished fragments of court dress, her silk slippers, and other personal items never before seen outside France.