International News
WGC:Central banks keep gold in focus in February
Central banks reported 24t net purchases in the second month of the year The National Bank of Poland led net purchases, adding 29t to its gold reserves, making February its 11th consecutive month of net buying The People’s Bank of China, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the Central Bank of Jordan, the Czech National Bank and the Qatar Central Bank also reported net purchases in February.
Demand for gold from central bankers continues, with data available for February showing reported global central bank gold reserves rising by 24t. Thus far, Poland, China, Turkey and the Czech Republic have led gold demand from emerging market central banks.
As in the preceding months, much of the buying was centred on those central banks that have been regular buyers/sellers of late:
- National Bank of Poland (NBP) lead month and year-to-date net buying, adding 29t in February alone. Year-to-date, NBP added 32t of gold, with its total gold holdings now 480t or 20% of its total reserves
- People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 5t of gold in February, its fourth consecutive month of net buying since it resumed reporting in November 2024
- The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey added 3t of gold in February, with its gold reserves totalling 623t or 38% of its total reserves
- The Central Bank of Jordan also added 3t of gold in February, with total gold reserves now at 72t or 30% of total reserves
- Qatar Central Bank reported 2t of net buying in February; its total gold holdings now stand at 114t which constitutes 19% of total reserves
- Czech National Bank added 2t of gold to their reserves this month, its gold holdings stand at 55t or 3% of total reserves
- Net sellers for the month of February were the National Bank of Kazakhstan (-8t) and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (-12t). Both central banks lead net selling activity year-to-date, down 4t
- Despite net sales y-t-d, gold reserves form 54% of Kazakhstan’s total reserves, bringing its total to 280t.
The National Bank of Belgium (NBB) has addressed recent media reports on the monetisation of Belgium’s gold reserve for public finance purposes, particularly defence spending. In a recent press release, NBB reaffirmed its independence and said gold reserves constitute assets allocated for achieving “public interest tasks entrusted to the Bank.”
The year has had a decent start as central banks’ appetite for gold continues to be robust. Our upcoming Gold Demand Trends report scheduled for publication on 30th April, covering central bank demand for the entire first quarter.
International News
Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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