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WGC Gold Demand Trends : Gold breaks records as investors seek shelter from market turbulence

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The World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 Gold Demand Trends report reveals that quarterly gold demand (including OTC) reached 1,313t, or US $146bn in value terms and was the highest quarter for demand on record.

Growth was driven primarily by investment demand which accelerated in Q3 reaching 537t (+47% y/y) and accounted for 55% of overall net gold demand. This momentum was driven by a powerful combination of an uncertain and volatile geopolitical environment, US dollar weakness and investor “FOMO” as the price climbed higher.

Investors continued to pile into physically backed gold ETFs for a third consecutive quarter, adding a further 222t with global inflows reaching US$26bn. Year-to-date, gold ETFs have added a total of 619t (US$64bn) to their holdings with North American listed funds leading the charge (346t), followed by European (148t) and Asian funds (118t).

Bar and coin investment rose 17% y/y, totalling 316t, with growth in almost all markets but with significant contributions from India (92t), China, (74t).

On the other hand, gold jewellery demand was weighed down by 50 record gold prices this year, seeing a 19% y/y decline in consumption for Q3. While the two largest consumer markets – India and China – both saw a quarter-on-quarter uplift, largely due to seasonal factors, the y/y picture across both markets remained weak.

Central banks picked up the pace in Q3 with net purchases totalling 220t in the third quarter, up 28% on Q2 and 10% y/y, despite the record-high gold price. On a year-to-date basis, net buying totalled 634t, trailing behind the exceptional highs of the last three years, but comfortably above pre-2022 levels.

Total gold supply reached a quarterly record of 1,313t, up 3% y/y. Mine production increased by 2% y/y to 977t while recycling was up 6% y/y at 344t, staying relatively stable given the soaring gold price.

Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst at the World Gold Council, commented: 

“Gold’s climb towards US$4,000/oz in the third quarter underscores the strength and persistence of the factors that have been driving demand throughout the year. Heightened geopolitical tensions, stubborn inflationary pressures and uncertainty around global trade policy have all fuelled appetite for safe-haven assets as investors look to build resilience in their portfolios.

“The outlook for gold remains optimistic, as continued US dollar weakness, lower interest rate expectations, and the threat of stagflation could further propel investment demand. Gold has set record after record this year, and the current environment suggests there could be more upside gains for gold. Our research indicates the market is not yet saturated, and the strategic case to hold gold remains firmly in place.”

Sachin Jain, Regional CEO, India, World Gold Council said:

“India’s gold market in Q3 2025 showcased its inherent resilience and the significant impact of evolving price dynamics. While total gold value surged impressively by 23% to Rs. 2,03,240 crores, gold demand volumes saw a 16% decline to 209.4 tonnes. This robust growth in value, driven by high average prices, strongly reaffirms gold’s enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investment demand, showed remarkable strength, increasing 20% in volume to 91.6 tonnes and a significant 74% in value to Rs. 88,970 crores.

This highlights a deepening strategic commitment among Indian consumers to gold as a long-term store of value. While jewellery demand saw a 31% volume decrease to 117.7 tonnes, its value remained largely stable at Rs. 1,14,270 crores. This indicates that despite higher prices, gold’s intrinsic cultural significance continues to drive purchases, with consumers adapting to the new price levels.

On the supply side, gold imports were 194.6 tonnes, down 37%, while recycling saw a modest 7% decline to 21.8 tonnes, suggesting consumers are holding onto their prized asset. Looking ahead, the current festive and wedding seasons are pivotal for the yellow metal. Gold’s unique cultural significance means festivals traditionally drive strong buying interest. Despite prevailing high prices, consumer sentiment remains positive, and retailers are well-prepared. We anticipate robust demand across all categories, from traditional jewellery to investment products, as the market gears up for a vibrant festive and wedding season. With total gold demand from January to September at approximately 462.4 tonnes, we anticipate full-year demand between 600 and 700 tonnes, more towards higher end of range.

Gold Demand Trends Q3 2025  India Fact Sheet: India Gold Demand Statistics for Q3 2025 (July – September)

  • Demand for gold in India for Q3 2025 was at 209.4 tonnes, down by 16% as compared to overall Q3 demand for 2024 (248.3 tonnes)
  • India’s Q3 2025 gold demand value was Rs. 2,03,240 crores, up by 23% as compared to Q3 2024 (Rs.1,65,380 crores)
  •  Total Jewellery demand in India for Q3 2025 decreased by 31% to 117.7 tonnes as compared to Q3 2024 (171.6 tonnes)
  • The value of jewellery demand remained rather unchanged at Rs. 1,14,270 crores, compared to Rs. 1,14,300 crores recorded in Q3 2024
  • Total Investment demand for Q3 2025 was at 91.6 tonnes, increased by 20% in comparison to Q3 2024 (76.7 tonnes)
  • In value terms, gold Investment demand in Q3 2025 was Rs. 88,970 crores, up by 74% from Q3 2024 (Rs. 51,080 crores)
  • Total gold recycled in India in Q3 2025 was 21.8 tonnes, down by 7% compared to 23.4 tonnes in Q3 2024.
  • Total gold imports in India in Q3 2025 was 194.6 tonnes, down by 37% compared to 308.2 tonnes in Q3 2024.
  • US$/oz average quarterly price in Q3 2025 was US$ 3,456.5 in comparison to US$ 2,474.3 in Q3 2024.
  •  INR/10g average quarterly price in Q3 2025 was INR 97,074.9 in comparison to INR 66,614.1 in Q3 2024 (without import duty and GST)
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JB Insights

AKSHAYA TRITIYA 2026 – The Focus Now Is On Buying With Clarity, Purpose, Value and Personal Relevance

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OVERVIEW

As Akshaya Tritiya 2026 approaches, coinciding with India’s peak wedding season, the jewellery and bullion sector is gearing up for robust demand. Market sentiment is distinctly positive, underpinned by gold’s safe-haven appeal, evolving consumer preferences, and strategic industry initiatives expected to deliver healthy growth across key markets.

While the traditional appeal of gold and diamonds remains a powerful driver, a clear transformation in consumer behaviour is underway. Buyers are increasingly seeking lightweight designs, personalized storytelling pieces, and value-conscious exchange programmes. Despite elevated gold prices and external geopolitical uncertainties, purchase intent has remained consistently strong. Silver demand has also gained significant momentum, driven by its affordability and investment value potential.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT & BEHAVIOUR

The modern jewellery and bullion buyer is more discerning than ever. Key behavioural trends this season include a growing preference for lightweight designs, personalized pieces, diamond-studded options, and value-conscious exchanges through old gold programmes. Interest in digital gold and silver is also rising, reflecting evolving investment preferences.

— Darshan Chauhan, Wholetime Director, Sky Gold and Diamonds Ltd

“Consumer sentiment this Akshaya Tritiya carries a quiet confidence — measured, yet deeply rooted in tradition. The occasion continues to transcend transaction; it remains a moment of belief, of beginnings, and of considered indulgence.”

Price volatility has prompted consumers to be more strategic, using gold exchange programmes and rate protection schemes to optimize value. Emotional resonance — jewellery that tells a story or marks a milestone — is becoming a primary purchase motivator.

— Eshwar Surana, MD, Raj Diamonds

“Today’s consumers are increasingly drawn to pieces that go beyond tradition, reflecting individuality and enduring value. We are also increasingly seeing a preference for larger diamonds with an excellent cut grade that are masterfully crafted for maximum sparkle and brilliance.”

INDUSTRY OUTLOOK & DEMAND DRIVERS

Gold’s Enduring Cultural Significance

Gold continues to be a mandatory purchase for millions of Indian households during Akshaya Tritiya, reinforced by its deep cultural symbolism as a harbinger of prosperity and good fortune. Its safe-haven appeal amidst global economic uncertainties further bolsters demand this season.

— Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC

“Gold is a mandatory purchase for many households during this period, and its safe haven appeal amidst economic uncertainties will further bolster demand. However, jewellers and consumers should remain cautious of potential short-term volatility in gold prices, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”

Silver’s Rising Momentum

Silver demand has gained remarkable traction this season, driven by both its affordability relative to gold and its growing recognition as a high-beta investment opportunity. The convergence of industrial and investment demand is positioning silver as a compelling parallel play alongside gold.

— Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd | National President, IBJA | Chairman, JITO

“Gold and silver are no longer just safe-haven assets — they are the market’s clearest signal of global uncertainty. With the US-Iran ceasefire still fragile, FOMC minutes flagging inflation risks, and central banks continuing to accumulate gold at a record pace, the structural bull case remains firmly intact. Every meaningful dip remains a buying opportunity, not a reason to exit.”

Wedding Season Synergy

The overlap of Akshaya Tritiya with the auspicious wedding season creates a powerful demand multiplier. Bridal trousseau purchases, gift sets, and investment jewellery all see significant upticks. This synergy has encouraged leading jewellers to extend store hours and launch dedicated bridal collections.

— Eshwar Surana, MD, Raj Diamonds

“We are expecting good traction in high-value diamond-studded and wedding jewellery, as there are a lot of weddings planned this summer. The demand for quality diamonds has already been very strong in the run-up to Akshaya Tritiya.”

Transparency & Innovation as Growth Levers

Industry associations such as the GJC are placing renewed emphasis on consumer confidence through transparency initiatives, innovative design, and digital accessibility. These efforts are expected to broaden the addressable market and attract younger, first-time buyers.

— Avinash Gupta, Vice Chairman, GJC

“At GJC, our focus remains on empowering jewellers and enhancing consumer confidence through transparency, innovation, and exceptional designs, thereby driving growth in the jewellery sector.”

LEADING BRAND STRATEGIES

PNG Jewellers — Targeting 25–30% Growth in Central India

PNG Jewellers has launched aggressive campaigns across Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. The brand is projecting a buying cycle well beyond the festive day itself, supported by:

◆  Attractive benefits on the old gold exchange

◆  Reduced making charges for the season

◆  Exclusive new collections curated for Akshaya Tritiya

◆  Extended store hours to maximize footfall and conversions

— Dr. Saurabh Gadgil, CMD, PNG Jewellers

“This Akshaya Tritiya, we are anticipating a strong and extended buying cycle, as the festival coincides with the wedding season. We are projecting healthy traction, with a targeted growth of 25% to 30% over last year, particularly in Central Indian markets such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.”

KISNA Diamond and Gold Jewellery — Gold Rate Protection Plan

For KISNA, Akshaya Tritiya is a cornerstone event contributing 15–18% of annual revenue. Recognizing heightened consumer sensitivity to gold price movements, the brand has introduced the innovative Gold Rate Protection Plan:

◆  Protects buyers against price increases post-purchase

◆  Expected to contribute approximately 25% of the monthly business

◆  Addresses growing demand for lightweight and diamond-studded pieces

◆  Actively promotes old gold exchange as a value-add mechanism

— Parag Shah, CEO, KISNA Diamond and Gold Jewellery

“This year, we are seeing a more value-conscious consumer, with gold price movements shaping purchase behaviour in the lead-up to the festival. We have introduced the Gold Rate Protection Plan as a strategic intervention to provide greater confidence and flexibility in the purchase journey.”

Raj Diamonds — Premium Bridal Collections

Raj Diamonds is focused on the premium end of the market with its signature high jewellery collections — Ruby Splendour and Ancient Splendour — designed for the discerning bridal buyer who values intrinsic quality alongside cultural significance.

◆  Ruby Splendour and Ancient Splendour signature collections

◆  Larger diamonds with excellent cut grade for maximum brilliance

◆  Crafted for consumers seeking individuality and enduring value

◆  Estimated 20–25% growth in value terms over the last year

BULLION MARKET PERSPECTIVE

Beyond jewellery, the bullion market is seeing parallel momentum driven by institutional and retail investment demand. The convergence of macro uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and silver’s industrial demand profile is creating a compelling case for both gold and silver this Akshaya Tritiya season.

— Narayan Debnath, MD, RadhaKrishna Jewellery Retail Pvt Ltd

“Market sentiment this Akshaya Tritiya is distinctly positive, supported by the continued rise in gold prices and its safe-haven appeal. There is also a clear uptick in interest towards digital gold and silver, reflecting evolving investment preferences. Silver demand has gained significant momentum this season, driven by its affordability and value potential.”

RISK FACTORS & MARKET CONSIDERATIONS

While the overall outlook is optimistic, industry leaders have flagged several considerations that jewellers and consumers should be mindful of:

◆  Short-term gold price volatility linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East

◆  Elevated base gold prices may compress margins if demand softens unexpectedly

◆  Shifting consumer preferences require continuous product innovation and design investment

◆  Growing expectations around transparency and certification demand robust supply chain practices

— Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC

“Jewellers and consumers should remain cautious of potential short-term volatility in gold prices, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”

CONCLUSION

India’s jewellery and bullion industry enters Akshaya Tritiya 2026 with well-founded confidence. A combination of enduring cultural demand, strategic promotional campaigns, consumer-friendly financial schemes, and an industry-wide pivot towards transparency and personalization is set to deliver robust growth.

The clearest signal from this season is that the consumer of 2025 buys with intention. Whether it is a lightweight everyday piece, a bridal set, a premium diamond investment, or a silver bullion coin, the purchase carries meaning — and the industry is rising to meet that expectation with clarity, value, and variety.

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