• Gold prices fell more than 3% yesterday after reaching $3500, and the market appears to have peaked in the short term. Markets are still digesting President Donald Trump’s softer tone on the US-China trade war, as well as his turnaround on wanting to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that heavy tariffs between the United States and China must be decreased before trade talks can proceed, but he emphasized that President Trump will not unilaterally lower duties on Chinese imports. However, he noted that a full trade agreement could take two to three years to complete.
• Although recession worries have subsided, the global economy has already suffered significant harm, and rebuilding trust in the United States as a dependable trade partner will take time. In this context, gold is projected to be highly supported.

Technical Triggers  

• In the short term, gold prices are expected to trade in the range of $3270 (~Rs 94000) to $3400(~Rs 96500). The long-term technical outlook will only turn negative if we begin printing lower lows and lower highs.
• Silver prices have given a breakout above $33(~Rs 97000), now the next target is $35 (~Rs 100,000).

U.S. gold prices have experienced a notable decline, falling from a recent high of $3,509 to $3,310. This $199 drop can be attributed to a combination of geopolitical and economic developments that have reduced market demand for safe-haven assets.

Key Factors Driving the Decline

1. Stability in U.S. Monetary Policy
   Investor concerns over potential instability in U.S. monetary policy were mitigated following former President Donald Trump’s remarks reaffirming his support for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. By ruling out any intention to replace Powell, Trump contributed to a sense of continuity and stability in monetary leadership, reducing speculative demand for gold.
2. Positive Signals in U.S.-China Trade Relations
   Sentiment was further boosted by optimistic statements from Trump regarding ongoing trade negotiations with China. His characterization of the discussions as “progressing positively” and his expressed confidence in achieving a mutually beneficial agreement have lowered immediate fears of trade disruptions, easing the flight to gold.
3. Geopolitical Easing in Eastern Europe
   Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to initiate talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has raised hopes for a ceasefire agreement. This development has encouraged a shift in investor sentiment toward riskier assets, further weakening gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

Contrasting Forecast: Bullish Outlook from JP Morgan
Despite the current decline, JP Morgan has issued a bullish long-term outlook, projecting that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026. The forecast is driven by concerns over a potential U.S. recession and the impact of renewed trade tensions stemming from Trump-era tariffs.
The recent decline in gold prices underscores the complexity and volatility of today’s economic landscape. While current developments have encouraged a risk-on sentiment, longer-term forecasts suggest persistent uncertainty could reignite demand for gold. In a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, forecasting commodity movements remains inherently challenging.

Türkiye’s jewelry sector delivered a standout performance in the first quarter of 2025, with exports soaring 72.1% year-on-year to reach $2.5 billion. This surge far outpaces the country’s overall export growth of 2.5% for the same period, highlighting jewelry as a key driver within Türkiye’s export portfolio.

Gold Dominance: Of the $2.5 billion total, jewelers’ gold products accounted for $2.1 billion, underscoring gold’s central role in Türkiye’s jewelry export mix.

Other Segments: Unprocessed or semi-processed gold contributed $347.3 million, while silver jewelry and unprocessed silver added $90.4 million and $31.7 million, respectively. Exports of precious-metal-plated products, cultured pearls, and semi-precious stones, though smaller in value, round out the sector’s diversity.

Price Effect: The sharp rise in gold prices over the past year has significantly inflated export values, benefiting revenue even as volumes may fluctuate.

United Arab Emirates (UAE): The UAE remains Türkiye’s top jewelry export destination, absorbing $1.2 billion—nearly half of total sector exports. This reflects both direct demand and the UAE’s role as a regional trade hub.

Other Major Markets: The United States ($199.5 million), Switzerland ($181.5 million), Hong Kong SAR ($128 million), and Mexico ($92.6 million) are also significant, with notable growth in shipments to Switzerland, Kyrgyzstan, and Libya.

Regional Production Hubs: Istanbul leads with $1.9 billion in exports, followed by Çorum ($646.1 million), demonstrating the sector’s geographic concentration and specialization.

Türkiye’s jewelry export surge in Q1 2025 highlights the sector’s resilience and strategic importance to the national economy. Continued access to raw materials, strong regional partnerships, and the ability to adapt to market trends position Türkiye to maintain its momentum. However, the sector must navigate price volatility and global competition to sustain growth in the coming quarters.

:

Türkiye’s jewelry industry has leveraged favorable gold prices, policy adjustments, and robust trade networks to deliver exceptional export growth in early 2025. As global demand and commodity prices remain dynamic, the sector’s agility and focus on high-value markets will be crucial for continued success.