International News
Soft US CPI data fuels rate cut bets AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold hovered near $3,400 as July CPI data boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut, easing tariff-driven inflation fears. However, market sentiment was jolted by US Customs imposing duties on large gold bars despite Trump’s no-tax assurance.
- As investors considered the Federal Reserve’s rate forecast in light of the most recent CPI data, gold prices were circling $3400. Core inflation increased from 2.9% to 3.1% in July, while headline inflation was 2.7%, below the 2.8% prediction.
- Gold’s attractiveness increased as the data allayed worries about tariff-driven inflation and supported anticipations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September.
- Furthermore, despite President Trump’s declaration that there would be no tax, Customs and Border Protection shocked markets last week by placing 100-ounce and 1-kilogram gold bars under a customs code that imposes duties.
Technical Triggers
- After achieving the target of $3500 (~Rs 102,000), gold prices have retraced below $3400(~Rs 100,200) level. Prices are expected to consolidate for a while with a bearish bias towards $3350 (~Rs 98500)
- After achieving the target of $38.5 (~Rs 115,000), Silver prices have retraced to $37.5 (~Rs 113,000). Next support is $37(~Rs 111,000), while upside prices are expected to touch $39 (~Rs 115,000) again, if positive momentum continues.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $3,350/oz | $3,480/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹98,500/10 gm | ₹1,01,000/10 gm |
| International Silver | $37.5/oz | $39/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹1,12,000/kg | ₹1,14,500/kg |
International News
Precious Metals Surge On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Geopolitical Optimism and Macro Shifts Drive Bullish Momentum
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
- Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.
Technical Triggers
- If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
- As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $70/oz : $82/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 257,000/kg |
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