International News
Soft US CPI data fuels rate cut bets AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold hovered near $3,400 as July CPI data boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut, easing tariff-driven inflation fears. However, market sentiment was jolted by US Customs imposing duties on large gold bars despite Trump’s no-tax assurance.
- As investors considered the Federal Reserve’s rate forecast in light of the most recent CPI data, gold prices were circling $3400. Core inflation increased from 2.9% to 3.1% in July, while headline inflation was 2.7%, below the 2.8% prediction.
- Gold’s attractiveness increased as the data allayed worries about tariff-driven inflation and supported anticipations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September.
- Furthermore, despite President Trump’s declaration that there would be no tax, Customs and Border Protection shocked markets last week by placing 100-ounce and 1-kilogram gold bars under a customs code that imposes duties.
Technical Triggers
- After achieving the target of $3500 (~Rs 102,000), gold prices have retraced below $3400(~Rs 100,200) level. Prices are expected to consolidate for a while with a bearish bias towards $3350 (~Rs 98500)
- After achieving the target of $38.5 (~Rs 115,000), Silver prices have retraced to $37.5 (~Rs 113,000). Next support is $37(~Rs 111,000), while upside prices are expected to touch $39 (~Rs 115,000) again, if positive momentum continues.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $3,350/oz | $3,480/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹98,500/10 gm | ₹1,01,000/10 gm |
| International Silver | $37.5/oz | $39/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹1,12,000/kg | ₹1,14,500/kg |
International News
Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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