Through mid-February 2025, rough diamond prices are down a modest 1-2% year-to-date, according to the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index. This follows an 18% decline in 2024 and a 15% decline in 2023. Rough prices are now down some 40% from the all-time high reached in the exuberant years of 2021 and 2022 where global diamond demand soared on the back of record economic stimulus in response to the pandemic.

The likelihood of natural diamond prices stabilising and subsequently recovering in 2025 and beyond lies in the balance of macro-economic variables in major consumer markets as well as more micro factors such as the magnitude and effectiveness of industry marketing and the trade’s ongoing efforts to positively differentiate its product from competing lab-grown diamonds.

Regarding the latter, potential catalysts include consumers’ (as well as jewellers’) dynamically changing perception of lab-grown versus natural diamonds at ever extreme price differentials and the industry’s aim to make easy-to-use consumer-facing natural diamond detection equipment ubiquitous in the consumer sphere

In the U.S., which represents over 50% of global consumer diamond jewellery demand, near-term macro drivers include the evolution of monetary policy, the impact of deglobalisation and the re-industrialisation of America under the new Trump administration.