International News
Is the worst of tariff war behind us? : AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
By: Dr. Renisha Chainani , Head-Research, Augmont – Gold
The bulls dominated the first few weeks of April, while the bears, who tested the $3200 mark in gold, dominated the final two weeks. Gold prices have corrected almost 8% from their high as the worst of the tariff war is behind us.
But despite the peak in tariff rates, uncertainty has not. Even though markets are breathing easier, investors should not assume that the situation is over. If headline tariff rates remain unchanged, the true danger is long-term policy uncertainty. Making significant agreements during the current difficulties will not be easy. A protracted era of trade fragmentation and policy uncertainty poses a greater risk, even if we have already witnessed peak tariffs.
According to US President Donald Trump, there is a high likelihood that a deal will be reached with China. He also mentioned that they have “potential” trade agreements with South Korea, Japan, and India. As China announced it is evaluating a U.S. proposal to hold trade negotiations, the study was released. The nation is eager to engage in negotiations, but only if the Trump Administration lowers the 145% tax it placed on Chinese goods last month.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy choices on May 7 may be the next significant catalyst for gold prices. Following the May 6-7 policy meeting, it is generally expected that the Fed would maintain the interest rate at a level between 4.25 and 4.5%. Market players will closely examine the policy statement’s modifications and listen to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference held after the meeting.
The USD may gain strength and cause a leg lower in gold if the Fed suggests that the increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast brought on by trade policy would probably compel them to be patient about rate adjustments. Conversely, gold would rise if the Fed emphasised the deteriorating labour market and economic outlook more, which would support forecasts of a 25 basis point policy rate cut in June.
Technically, if Gold prices sustain below $3210 (~Rs 92000) this week, they may fall towards $3140 (~Rs 90500). On the higher side, $3300(~Rs 94000) is the resistance level, which prices need to sustain, to climb higher towards $3360 (~Rs 95500).
Gold prices in India saw a modest rise on Wednesday today Oct 15, mirroring an uptick in international markets as renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of further US interest rate cuts bolstered demand for safe-haven assets.24k gold traded at Rs.1,28,360/10gm after gaining ₹10 in early trade, while silver prices increased by Rs.100 to Rs.1,89,100 per kilogram.
Gold prices surged to a record high of $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025. Investors flocked to safe-haven metals amid trade tensions and Fed rate-cut expectations. U.S. December gold futures jumped 57% year-to-date. Bank of America raised its 2026 gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, warning of possible near-term corrections.
Gold prices soared to an unprecedented $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025, marking a historic milestone for the yellow metal. The rally comes as investors worldwide seek safety in hard assets amid a turbulent global economic backdrop marked by escalating trade tensions, slowing growth, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The sharp surge in bullion prices has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and aggressive monetary easing. As inflation pressures remain sticky and central banks pivot toward dovish policies, gold has reasserted its role as a hedge against both currency debasement and market volatility.
In futures trading, U.S. December gold contracts have skyrocketed nearly 57% so far this year, underscoring the strength of investor demand across both institutional and retail segments. Analysts note that central bank buying—particularly from emerging markets—has added further momentum to the rally, with several countries diversifying reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
Reflecting this bullish sentiment, Bank of America has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing continued monetary easing, geopolitical instability, and robust central bank accumulation. However, the bank also cautioned that short-term corrections are likely, given the rapid pace of the recent run-up and potential bouts of profit-taking.
Overall, gold’s meteoric rise underscores a broader shift toward safe-haven assets, as investors navigate a world increasingly defined by economic fragmentation, shifting interest rate cycles, and persistent geopolitical risks.
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