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India’s CAD surges on gold and silver imports

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India’s trade deficit swelled to a three-month peak of $34.6 billion in January, driven by soaring gold and silver imports that inflated the import bill even as exports stagnated amid slumping shipments to the U.S.​

Import Surge

Imports climbed 19.1%—the steepest rise since April—to $71.2 billion, marking the second-highest monthly figure on record, with gold inflows rocketing 4.5-fold to $12 billion and silver doubling 2.3 times to $2 billion. This spike overshadowed modest export growth of just 0.8% to $36.6 billion, hampered by declines in gems and jewelry as well as textiles, despite slight gains in electronics and pharmaceuticals.​

Export Outlook

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal expressed optimism for record annual exports, projecting merchandise nearing $860 billion and services surpassing $410 billion for the first time, buoyed by sustained upward momentum. Confidence partly hinges on rebounding U.S. demand for gems, jewelry, and textiles following the early-February withdrawal of punitive 25% secondary tariffs

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National News

Gold and Silver Decline On a Strong Dollar

Navigating Volatility Between Oil Costs and Currency Strength

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The Indian bullion market took a breather this Thursday as a combination of a stronger dollar and geopolitical shifts triggered a wave of profit-taking. After reaching record heights earlier in the week, both gold and silver saw a significant pullback on the MCX. The domestic futures gold price on MCX traded 2.54 percent lower to Rs 1,49,800 per 10 grams of 24-carat purity, from the previous close. Silver edged 6 percent down to Rs 2,28,891 per kilogram. Bullion has fallen as investors rush to book profits from recent highs.

The rally lost steam as several macroeconomic factors converged to weigh down the metals:

  • Profit Booking: After gold surged to a staggering Rs 1,54,500 per 10 grams yesterday, investors were quick to lock in gains, leading to a sharp intraday correction. Currency Pressure: A firmer U.S. Dollar made dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening demand. Geopolitical Cool-down: Signs of de-escalation in West Asia have slightly reduced the “safe-haven” premium that usually keeps bullion prices inflated. Energy & Economy: While tightening energy supplies and rising oil prices often act as a floor for metal prices, they weren’t enough to offset today’s broad sell-off.

Outlook

Despite the current correction, the underlying market remains sensitive. While easing tensions in West Asia provides some relief, the interplay between rising oil costs and a strong dollar will continue to dictate the short-term volatility for precious metals. For now, the “rush to the exits” is the primary driver as the market stabilizes from its recent peaks.

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