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India’s CAD surges on gold and silver imports

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India’s trade deficit swelled to a three-month peak of $34.6 billion in January, driven by soaring gold and silver imports that inflated the import bill even as exports stagnated amid slumping shipments to the U.S.​

Import Surge

Imports climbed 19.1%—the steepest rise since April—to $71.2 billion, marking the second-highest monthly figure on record, with gold inflows rocketing 4.5-fold to $12 billion and silver doubling 2.3 times to $2 billion. This spike overshadowed modest export growth of just 0.8% to $36.6 billion, hampered by declines in gems and jewelry as well as textiles, despite slight gains in electronics and pharmaceuticals.​

Export Outlook

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal expressed optimism for record annual exports, projecting merchandise nearing $860 billion and services surpassing $410 billion for the first time, buoyed by sustained upward momentum. Confidence partly hinges on rebounding U.S. demand for gems, jewelry, and textiles following the early-February withdrawal of punitive 25% secondary tariffs

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National News

MCX Gold Futures For June Delivery Slip , Geopolitical Uncertainty Keeps Bullion in Focus

International Bullion Markets Remained Volatile As Investors Monitored Developments In US-Iran Negotiations

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Gold and silver prices traded lower on Thursday amid easing US Treasury yields and improving global market sentiment, even as geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Iran conflict continued to influence investor outlook. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for June delivery slipped Rs. 206 to Rs. 1,59,800 per 10 grams, while silver contracts for July delivery fell Rs. 1,350, or 0.5%, to Rs. 2,72,915 per kilogram.

International bullion markets remained volatile as investors monitored developments in US-Iran negotiations. US President Donald Trump indicated that talks with Iran were in their “final stages” but cautioned that failure to secure an agreement could trigger renewed military action, keeping risk sentiment fragile.

Analysts said precious metal prices continue to be supported by concerns over inflation and safe-haven demand. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sustained elevated crude oil prices, fuelling worries about supply disruptions and inflationary pressures.

A softer US dollar and a pullback in Treasury yields also offered some support to bullion after recent bond market volatility. However, expectations of a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve continue to weigh on sentiment, with policymakers signalling that further rate hikes may be considered if inflation remains above target.

Market participants are now closely watching progress in US-Iran talks, movements in crude oil prices, and upcoming manufacturing and services PMI data from major economies for further direction in bullion markets. Domestically, higher import duties on gold and silver are expected to keep demand subdued, with prices likely to remain range-bound in the near term.

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