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Gold, silver prices surged to new highs on safe haven demand, rupee depreciation

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Gold and silver prices surged to fresh record highs in domestic markets, trading above Rs.1,02,000 per 10 gm and Rs.1,17,000 per kg, respectively. The rally is supported by rupee depreciation against the dollar and strong safe-haven demand, amid concerns that political pressure on the US Federal Reserve could accelerate the pace of rate cuts.

  Markets are largely factoring in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with growing expectations that Fed decisions may be influenced by political dynamics.  Recent US economic data showed slightly faster Q2 growth, but focus now shifts to the US personal consumption report due later today. A stronger reading could stoke fresh inflation concerns.

Market concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence intensified after President Trump called for the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Rising inflation expectations also underpinned bullion, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbing to a six-month high of 2.46%.

 Additional support for gold came from escalating geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariffs and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Investor interest remains strong, with gold ETF holdings at a two-year high.

Asian demand stayed firm, with China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong surging 126.8% in July from June, more than doubling month-on-month.

Gold Oct Futures are expected to continue their upside momentum towards $3485 (~Rs 102,500), if it sustains above $3445 (~Rs 101,500). As Silver Sep Futures has broken its range and sustained above $38.80 (~Rs 116,000), upside momentum can swing prices towards a new high of $40 (~Rs 120,000).

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National News

RBI accelerates  repatriation of its gold reserves, 64 ton brought home last 6 months

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has significantly accelerated the repatriation of its gold reserves, bringing home 274 tonnes of gold since March 2023, including approximately 64 tonnes in the six months leading up to September 2025. This strategic move is primarily driven by mounting geopolitical uncertainty and rising global skepticism over keeping sovereign assets offshore, especially after the G7 nations froze the foreign currency reserves of Russia and Afghanistan.

By the end of September 2025, the RBI’s total gold holdings stood at 880.8 tonnes, with a majority—575.8 tonnes—now held domestically, reflecting a deliberate effort to enhance economic sovereignty and safeguard national wealth from potential financial sanctions or warfare. This repatriation effort, alongside surging gold prices, has also increased gold’s share in India’s total foreign exchange reserves to 13.9%, underscoring the central bank’s focus on diversification and risk mitigation in a fragmented global landscape.

The rise in gold prices has also elevated the precious metal’s proportion in total reserves to 13.9%.By September 2025, the foreign currency assets of around $579.18 billion were allocated as follows: $489.54 billion in securities investments, $46.11 billion in deposits with other central banks and BIS, whilst $43.53 billion remained in deposits with overseas commercial banks.

As at March 31, RBI’s gold holdings stood at 879 tonnes, with 512 tonnes stored within the country and 348.6 tonnes held under custodial arrangements with the Bank of England and Bank of International Settlements.The central bank has indicated that it engages external asset managers to handle a modest portion of reserves to investigate alternative reserve management strategies and products, whilst diversifying the portfolio. These activities are conducted within the framework permitted by the RBI Act, 1934.

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