International News
Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears
Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.
Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.
International News
Safe-Haven Rally Amid US–Iran Diplomacy and Pre-NFP Caution AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Continues Its Upside Momentum With Next Target Resistance At $4,800–4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000)
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver have resumed their upward trend, supported by optimism around a potential US–Iran peace deal that is weakening the safe-haven appeal of the USD. Despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, investor sentiment leans toward diplomatic resolution. This has pushed Crude Oil prices lower, reducing inflationary pressure and lowering expectations of a more aggressive Fed stance.
Geopolitical Developments – Iran has accused the US of breaching the ceasefire through strikes near the Strait. The Trump administration is awaiting Tehran’s formal response to a proposal aimed at reopening Hormuz and resolving the roughly ten-week conflict. Reports suggest Iran will relay its position via Pakistan within two days.
Macro-economic Signals Markets are focused on today’s NFP print, forecast at 62K — a sharp pullback from March’s stronger-than-expected 178K. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth is expected to tick up to 3.8% from 3.5%, keeping wage inflation in focus.
Technical Triggers
- Gold continues its upside momentum with next target resistance at $4,800–4,850 (~Rs.1,55,000).
- Silver has met the $80 (~Rs. 2,60,000) and $82 (~Rs. 2,65,000) upside target. Prices are expected to consolidate here for a while before moving higher towards $85 (~Rs. 2,70,000)
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4500/oz : $4850/oz : Rs. 148,000/10 gm : Rs. 155,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $73/oz : $85/oz : Rs. 240,000/kg : Rs. 270,000/kg |
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