International News
Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.
Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.

International News
WGC:Central banks keep gold in focus in February

Central banks reported 24t net purchases in the second month of the year The National Bank of Poland led net purchases, adding 29t to its gold reserves, making February its 11th consecutive month of net buying The People’s Bank of China, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the Central Bank of Jordan, the Czech National Bank and the Qatar Central Bank also reported net purchases in February.
Demand for gold from central bankers continues, with data available for February showing reported global central bank gold reserves rising by 24t. Thus far, Poland, China, Turkey and the Czech Republic have led gold demand from emerging market central banks.
As in the preceding months, much of the buying was centred on those central banks that have been regular buyers/sellers of late:
- National Bank of Poland (NBP) lead month and year-to-date net buying, adding 29t in February alone. Year-to-date, NBP added 32t of gold, with its total gold holdings now 480t or 20% of its total reserves
- People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 5t of gold in February, its fourth consecutive month of net buying since it resumed reporting in November 2024
- The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey added 3t of gold in February, with its gold reserves totalling 623t or 38% of its total reserves
- The Central Bank of Jordan also added 3t of gold in February, with total gold reserves now at 72t or 30% of total reserves
- Qatar Central Bank reported 2t of net buying in February; its total gold holdings now stand at 114t which constitutes 19% of total reserves
- Czech National Bank added 2t of gold to their reserves this month, its gold holdings stand at 55t or 3% of total reserves
- Net sellers for the month of February were the National Bank of Kazakhstan (-8t) and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (-12t). Both central banks lead net selling activity year-to-date, down 4t
- Despite net sales y-t-d, gold reserves form 54% of Kazakhstan’s total reserves, bringing its total to 280t.
The National Bank of Belgium (NBB) has addressed recent media reports on the monetisation of Belgium’s gold reserve for public finance purposes, particularly defence spending. In a recent press release, NBB reaffirmed its independence and said gold reserves constitute assets allocated for achieving “public interest tasks entrusted to the Bank.”
The year has had a decent start as central banks’ appetite for gold continues to be robust. Our upcoming Gold Demand Trends report scheduled for publication on 30th April, covering central bank demand for the entire first quarter.
International News
GIA Suspends Acceptance of Overseas Submissions Requiring US Shipment
The Gemological Institute of America (GIA) has temporarily suspended the acceptance of goods at its international laboratories that require shipping to the US for services. This decision comes in response to new tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump’s administration.

In a recent communication to clients, GIA advised customers outside the US to refrain from sending items directly to its American labs for grading or other services. The institute explained that a baseline 10% tariff now applies to all goods imported into the US, with additional duties imposed on items from countries such as India, South Africa, and Thailand starting April 9. These tariffs affect gems sent for laboratory services, even if they are not intended for sale.
“There is a baseline 10% tariff on goods being imported into the US,” the GIA explained. “Additional tariffs for products from specific countries, including India, South Africa, Thailand and others, will begin on April 9. These tariffs will apply to gems being shipped to a GIA laboratory in the US, even if only for laboratory services and not for sale.”
The US recently implemented steep “reciprocal” tariffs, including a 27% import duty on Indian goods and 20% on those from the EU. While a Temporary Importation Under Bond (TIB) provision exists to exempt goods not for sale, industry experts have cast doubt on its applicability, asserting there are no valid exemptions for imported goods.
GIA acknowledged the potential confusion caused by these regulatory changes and urged clients to ensure compliance with US import laws. The organization is assessing the situation and considering operational adjustments to maintain service continuity at its international labs. Meanwhile, clients are responsible for any tariff charges incurred when shipping to GIA’s US locations, based on the country where the diamond was substantially transformed.
International News
Gold, ‘Non-traditional reserve currencies’ eat into U.S. dollar’s reserve dominance: Wolf Richter

Gold and other reserve currencies – but not the euro or renminbi – are steadily eroding the U.S. dollar’s position as the world’s preeminent reserve asset, according to Wolf Richter, analyst and publisher of Wolf Street.

“The status of the US dollar as the dominant global reserve currency has helped the US fund its twin deficits, and thereby has enabled them: the huge fiscal deficit every year and the massive trade deficit every year,” Richter wrote in an article published Monday. “The reserve currency status comes from other central banks (not the Fed) having purchased trillions of USD-denominated assets such as Treasury securities, other government securities, corporate bonds, and even stocks. The dollar status as the dominant reserve currency has been crucial for the US, and as that dominance declines ever so slowly, risks pile up ever so slowly.”
Total holdings of USD-denominated securities by other central banks (not the Fed) fell by $59 billion to $6.63 trillion at the end of 2024, from $6.69 trillion at the end of 2023,” he noted. “And the dollar’s share declined to 57.8% of total allocated exchange reserves at the end of 2024, the lowest since 1994, down by 7.3 percentage points in 10 years, as central banks have been diversifying their holdings for years to assets denominated in currencies other than the dollar, and into gold.”
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