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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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MCX Gold, Silver Rise Despite Global Weakness; US Data, Iran Tensions Keep Bullion Markets On Edge

While Domestic Gold and Silver Prices Edged Higher On MCX, International Spot Gold Slipped Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Negotiations, Inflation Concerns

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Gold and silver prices witnessed mixed momentum on May 28, with domestic futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trading marginally higher even as international spot gold prices remained under pressure. The divergence reflects cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, and expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States.

MCX gold futures for June delivery rose modestly by Rs. 215 to Rs. 1,57,898 per 10 grams, while silver futures for July delivery gained Rs. 2,000 to trade at Rs. 2,72,628 per kilogram in early trade. The domestic uptick was supported by weakness in the US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key macroeconomic developments.

However, global spot gold prices extended losses for a second consecutive session as investors remained wary of the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices and the possibility of prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Analysts noted that fading hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran have revived concerns around oil supply disruptions, higher crude prices, and inflation risks — factors that continue to influence precious metals.

According to market experts, gold has struggled to regain strong upside momentum despite its safe-haven appeal, as rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar have reduced investor appetite for non-yielding assets like bullion. Silver, meanwhile, remained under pressure globally after recent military developments in southern Iran weakened expectations of an immediate resolution to regional tensions.

Investors are now closely watching key US macroeconomic indicators, including ADP employment figures, GDP growth data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. These data points are expected to offer fresh direction on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, which remains a crucial driver for gold and silver prices.

With geopolitical risks still elevated and inflation concerns persisting, bullion markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term as traders await clearer signals on both diplomacy and monetary policy.

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