International News
Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears
Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.
Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.
Gold prices in the U.S. have moved back above $4,700 per ounce, with spot gold trading near $4,750 on Thursday, May 7, 2026. This marks a gain of over 1% in a single day, following its strongest rise in more than five weeks on Wednesday.
Although gold is still around 15% below its record high of nearly $5,595 per ounce, reached in January 2026, prices remain much higher than the $4,300–$4,400 support range seen during the market decline in late March.
Gold has been trading in a narrow range since the Iran conflict began in late February. During that period, prices dropped by more than 10% as rising oil prices increased inflation concerns, forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged and pushing Treasury yields higher.
Now, market conditions are changing. Oil prices are easing, bond yields are falling, and investors are returning to gold, making it more attractive again.
Three main factors are supporting the recent rise in gold prices:
1. Falling U.S. Treasury yields:
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped from around 4.4%, reducing the cost of holding gold. Since gold does not pay interest, lower bond yields make it a more attractive investment.
2. A weaker U.S. dollar:
A softer dollar generally helps gold prices, as it makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
3. Optimism over U.S.–Iran talks:
Renewed hopes of diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran have improved market sentiment, adding support to gold prices.
With Treasury yields easing and inflation fears cooling, one of the biggest pressures on gold since March is beginning to fade.
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