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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

Diamond Price Gains In Sept Led By Small, High-Quality Stones

US Retail Demand Strengthened, Particularly For 1–2 Ct (F–I, VS2–SI2) and 2+ Ct Stones. Lower-Quality Smaller Goods Remain Under Pressure From Lab-Grown Diamond Competition.

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Diamond prices continued their upward trajectory in September—traditionally a slow month—driven by reduced production and rising demand. Round diamonds consistently outperformed fancy shapes.

US Market & Trading Sentiment: US retail demand strengthened, particularly for 1–2 ct (F–I, VS2–SI2) and 2+ ct stones. Lower-quality smaller goods remain under pressure from lab-grown diamond competition. Holidays in the US, Belgium, Israel, and India temporarily slowed regional trading.

Trade Show Trends (Hong Kong JGW): Show results were mixed: strong demand for finished jewelry and 2+ ct natural diamonds offset weak interest from Chinese buyers and sluggish movement in smaller, low-clarity goods.

 Corporate & Supply Restructuring:

  • De Beers is set to acquire Mountain Province’s 49% stake in the Gahcho Kué mine under a debt-restructuring agreement.
  • Anglo American’s ongoing process to sell De Beers maintains broad market uncertainty, while recent De Beers rough sights indicate cautious buying.
  • Petra Diamonds is evaluating strategic options, including potential asset sales.
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