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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

WGC Outlook 2026: Geopolitics, Growth Risks and Rate Shifts to Steer Gold’s Next Move

Gold’s 2026 trajectory hinges on economic shifts, policy outcomes and global stability, says the latest WGC outlook.

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Gold is up by more than 60% y-t-d and is gearing up to have one of its strongest annual performances in decades.  Investment demand has been one of the key drivers, in response to a highly charged geopolitical environment, a weaker US dollar, and positive price momentum. At the same time, central bank demand remains strong.  Combined, their effect has more than offset any weakness seen in jewellery.

Looking to 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty.  The gold price today reflects consensus expectations for next year, but the global economy rarely ever plays out as planned.

Against this backdrop, our analysis shows that:

If economic growth slows and interest rates fall more than expected next year, gold could see gains between 5% and 15%.

In a more severe downturn marked by rising global risks, gold could see a marked increase between 15% and 30%.

Conversely, a successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth, reduce risk and push gold down between 5% and 20%.

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