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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

U.S. Begins Refunding $166 Billion In Struck-Down Trump Tariffs

Diamond and Jewelry Shipments Poised For Early Payouts.

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Importers who shelled out $166 billion in so-called Trump tariffs are getting their money back, with diamond and jewelry shipments poised for early payouts.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency kicked off the refund program on April 20 through its new CAPE portal in the ACE system. High-value entries like diamonds and jewelry—hit by International Emergency Economic Powers Act duties ruled illegal by the Supreme Court in February—top the priority list, especially recent or unliquidated shipments from the past year.

Approved claims could yield refunds plus about 6% annual interest within 60 to 90 days, offering a cash-flow jolt for importers. The payouts exclude the separate 10% global tariffs imposed later under different laws.

Shipping giants FedEx and UPS are vowing to return refunded money to customers in the wake of a February court ruling.

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