International News
Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears
Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.
Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.
International News
Precious Metals Under Pressure As Middle East Escalation Fuels Inflation and Rate Concerns AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Stabilized Near $4,500 After A Near 2% Decline, Weighed Down By Escalating Middle East Tensions That Have Pushed Energy Prices Sharply Higher
- Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold stabilised near $4,500 after a near 2% decline, weighed down by escalating Middle East tensions that have pushed energy prices sharply higher and stoked inflation fears. The resulting inflationary pressure has reinforced market expectations that central banks will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.
- Geopolitical Developments – US forces successfully defended against Iranian attacks while escorting two American-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and attributed a significant fire at its Fujairah port to an Iranian drone strike. These incidents followed President Trump’s directive to restore safe passage through Hormuz and assist stranded vessels, though shipowners remain cautious given the heightened security environment.
- Macro-economic Signals – The renewed escalation has undermined confidence in the four-week ceasefire, triggering a surge in oil prices and global bond yields on expectations of tighter monetary policy ahead. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates the Fed will hold rates steady through 2026, while markets have begun pricing rate hikes for 2027 — the probability of a January 2027 increase has jumped to 22% from near zero just one week prior.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is expected to trade in the range of $4500-$4850 (~ Rs 148,000 -155,000).
- Silver is expected to trade in the range of $71-$80 (~ Rs 235,000 -255,000).
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4450/oz : $4850/oz : Rs 145,000/10 gm : Rs 155,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $68/oz : $77/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 255,000/kg |
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