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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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U.S. specialty jewellery retailers recorded a 5.7% y-o-y  revenue increase in Sept 2026:Tenoris

The growth continues to be driven primarily by high-end purchases rather than sales volume. Average consumer spend per item jumped 11% in September, offsetting an 11% drop in sales volume for lower-priced merchandise.

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U.S. specialty jewelry retailers recorded a 5.7% year-over-year revenue increase in September 2026, extending nearly two years of continuous monthly growth despite broader economic headwinds, according to new data from industry analytics firm Tenoris. Year-to-date jewelry revenues are now up 8.5%.

The growth continues to be driven primarily by high-end purchases rather than sales volume. Average consumer spend per item jumped 11% in September, offsetting an 11% drop in sales volume for lower-priced merchandise.

Key insights from the September report include:

  • Diamond Market Dynamics: Sales of finished diamond jewelry dipped slightly by 0.6%, though average spending per stone rose 11%.
  • Lab-Grown Segment: Demand for lab-grown diamond jewelry surged nearly 26% year-over-year. However, revenue for loose lab-grown diamonds fell for a fifth straight month due to declining prices.
  • Outperforming Broader Luxury: While overall U.S. luxury spending fell 6% in September—according to recent Citi credit card data—jewelry sales remained comparatively resilient, driven by affluent buyers.

When overall revenue increases even as the number of individual items sold drops, it creates a optical illusion of growth. On paper, top-line financial performance looks strong, but underneath, the business is relying on fewer transactions at much higher prices.Heading into the high-volume fourth quarter—driven by holiday shopping—this dynamic presents specific operational challenges and strategic risks for jewelry retailers.

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