International News
Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears
Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.
Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.
International News
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Silver Surged Over 6% To Above $78, While Gold Rose Approximately 3% To Trade Near $4,700.
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Silver surged over 6% to above $78, while Gold rose approximately 3% to trade near $4,700. The primary driver was easing Middle East tensions, which pressured oil prices lower and reduced inflation concerns. Both Iran and the US are engaging mediators to finalise a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding, intended to establish a framework for a month-long negotiation process aimed at ending the conflict.
Geopolitical Developments – The White House is reportedly close to a deal with Iran, marking the most significant diplomatic progress since the conflict began. The proposed agreement would require Iran to accept enhanced UN inspections, suspend nuclear enrichment for 12–15 years, potentially relocate highly enriched uranium, and restrict underground nuclear facilities. In return, the US would phase out sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian assets.
Macro-economic Signals – The US ADP report released Wednesday showed private-sector payrolls expanded by 109K in April, up from a downwardly revised 61K in March. The above-consensus reading signals continued, if uneven, labour market resilience. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch data indicates markets are still assigning meaningful probability to a Fed rate hike before year-end.
Technical Triggers
- Gold has recovered from the $4,500–4,550 (~ Rs. 1,49,000) support zone, with resistance now targeted at $4,800–4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000).
- Silver has met the $78 (~Rs. 2,56,000) upside target; subsequent resistance levels stand at $80 (~Rs. 2,60,000) and $82 (~Rs. 2,65,000).
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4500/oz : $4850/oz : Rs. 148,000/10 gm : Rs. 155,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $73/oz : $82/oz : Rs. 240,000/kg : Rs. 265,000/kg |
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