International News
Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears
Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.
Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.
International News
WGC REPORT–Gold Demand Trends Q3 2026
Year-To-Date Demand Of 3,881t Virtually Matches The 2025 Record, While Its Value Has Reached A New High Of US$566bn
Total gold demand, including OTC investment and stock changes, was 1% lower y/y at 1,369t. Year-to-date demand of 3,881t virtually matches the 2025 record, while its value has reached a new high of US$566bn.
Key Highlights
Central bank buying jumped to 321t in Q3, led by China and Poland. The strong quarter lifted year-to-date demand to 675t, 6% ahead of the same period in 2025.
Global gold ETFs added 211t in Q3, in a sharp reversal from Q2 outflows. Broad-based buying took holdings to a record 4,256t and generated a record US$31bn of quarterly inflows.
Bar and coin investment fell to a four-year low of 268t. Rangebound prices discouraged fresh buying, although year-to-date demand remained at a 13-year high.
Gold jewellery consumption fell 17% y/y to 313t, the weakest third quarter in our data series. High prices constrained affordability across all markets, but the value of demand edged 2% higher to US$43bn.
Total gold supply slipped 1% y/y to 1,369t. Record third-quarter mine production of 1,071t was offset by an 8% fall in recycling to a three-year low of 314t.
2026 Outlook
We expect continued gold ETF inflows and resilient bar and coin buying, together with robust central bank purchases, to be the principal drivers of overall demand growth. Technology demand should remain firm, but elevated prices will continue to weigh on jewellery volumes. Mine production could reach another record high, but subdued recycling is expected to result in a modest decline in total supply.
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