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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

Bullion Dips in India Despite Safe-Haven Demand as Dollar Firms

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Precious metals opened slightly softer in India on Thursday (March 12), tracking cautious sentiment in international markets as geopolitical developments and a firmer US dollar tempered buying interest in bullion.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures eased 0.26% to Rs.1.61 lakh per 10 grams for 24-carat gold. Silver prices also moved lower, slipping 0.63% to Rs.2.67 lakh per kilogram.

The modest decline in domestic bullion largely reflected global price action. Internationally, gold edged down in early trading, with spot prices hovering near $5,151 per ounce, while US gold futures for April delivery traded around $5,156 per ounce.

Market pressure came primarily from a stronger US dollar, which gained roughly 0.3%. A firmer dollar typically makes dollar-denominated commodities like gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing immediate buying interest.

At the same time, crude oil prices climbed sharply as tensions involving Iran intensified and concerns grew over potential supply disruptions through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global energy shipments. These developments added volatility to commodity markets, influencing investor positioning across precious metals.

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