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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector

Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments

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Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.

We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:

  • Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
  • Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
  • Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
  • Energy Sector Headwinds

Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:

  • Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.

Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation

The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.

  • US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
  • Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.

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