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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

Gold prices in India continued to decline, modest recovery in global prices

geopolitical risks,rising energy prices continue to underpin gold demand globally.

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Gold prices in India continued to decline on Thursday, marking the third straight session of losses even as global bullion prices attempted a modest recovery amid rising geopolitical tensions.

In the domestic market, 24-karat gold has fallen sharply over the past three days, with prices dropping by about ₹85,800 per 100 grams. The correction reflects a mix of global market volatility, profit-taking after recent highs, and currency movements affecting local bullion pricing.

As of Thursday morning, 24-karat gold was quoted at ₹16,451 per gram, down ₹311 from the previous session. The price of 22-karat gold slipped to ₹15,080 per gram, a decline of ₹285.

The drop in domestic prices comes even as international gold markets showed signs of stabilizing. Global bullion prices climbed back above $5,160 an ounce on Wednesday after recovering part of their earlier losses.

The rebound followed escalating tensions in the Middle East as the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran entered its fifth day. Reports that Israel targeted a building where clerics were meeting to discuss the selection of a new Supreme Leader heightened geopolitical uncertainty, prompting renewed safe-haven flows into gold.

In India, however, retail bullion prices continued to reflect the recent correction.

On the derivatives side, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) were largely flat. The April 2026 contract opened at ₹1,63,265 per 10 grams, traded between ₹1,61,241 and ₹1,64,047 during the session, and was last quoted around ₹1,61,550—up marginally by ₹25, or 0.02%.

Market participants say geopolitical risks and rising energy prices could continue to underpin gold demand globally. Analysts note that if international prices hold above the $5,200 level, bullion could move toward the $5,450–$5,600 range in the near term, with price dips likely to attract strategic buying.

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