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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

Gemfields’ Higher-Quality Emerald Auction Fetches $26.8 Million

Strong Demand Continuing For Top-Tier Stones Despite Broader Market Caution Driven By Geopolitical Tensions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty.

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Gemfields reported revenues of $26.8 million from its latest higher-quality rough emerald auction, with strong demand continuing for top-tier stones despite broader market caution driven by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The auction, held from 4 to 21 May 2026, saw 36 of 37 lots sold, representing a 97% sell-through rate. Of the 185,135 carats offered, 183,385 carats were sold, achieving an average realised price of $146.08 per carat.

The rough emeralds were mined by Kagem in Zambia. Buyers viewed the lots in Bangkok before bidding through Gemfields’ online sealed-bid auction platform.

Adrian Banks, Gemfields’ MD- Product & Sales, said:

“While demand for higher-quality emeralds remains stable, the market is presently exercising a degree of caution, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty…Competition and pricing for the top-tier emeralds remained particularly strong.”

Banks also pointed to the Indian rupee’s roughly 10% depreciation against the US dollar since Kagem’s previous higher-quality auction in September 2025 as an added challenge for many customers.

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