Safe-Haven Dynamics

Gold faced downward pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthened and Treasury yields surged, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Easing inflation expectations have also diminished hopes for aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing, with markets currently pricing in only one possible rate cut later this year.

Geopolitical Developments

Geopolitical tensions escalated after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly launched a joint operation with Lebanon’s Hezbollah targeting sites in Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.

Additionally, reports of attacks on two oil tankers in the northern Persian Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait heightened fears of supply disruptions, pushing crude oil prices higher by more than 6%.

Macro-Economic Factors

U.S. inflation data for February came largely in line with expectations but remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual rate holding steady at 3.1%. Persistently elevated inflation continues to reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts.

Technical Triggers

• Gold continues to maintain a bullish bias, with prices expected to move towards $5,250 (~ Rs.163,500) and $5,300 (~ Rs.165,000) in the near term. Strong support is seen around the $5,000 (~ ₹158,500) level, which is likely to act as a key buying zone on any corrective dips.

• After achieving the target of $90, Silver also remains firmly supported and is continuing its upward momentum, with the next upside target around $95 (~ Rs.285,000). On the downside, strong support is placed near $80 (~ Rs.260,000), suggesting that any short-term corrections could attract fresh buying interest.