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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

Precious Metals Under Pressure Despite Near-Term Rate Hold Expectations

Precious metals experienced sharp liquidation as investors sold assets to cover cash needs during broader stock market declines.

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While rising energy costs boosted oil, precious metals experienced sharp liquidation as investors sold assets to cover cash needs during broader stock market declines.

Gold: Spot gold briefly dipped below $4,000 to $3,993.96 per ounce—its lowest level since mid-July—recording a 4% weekly decline before staging a partial recovery to $4,026. In domestic retail markets in India, 24K gold edged up slightly by ₹100 to ₹1,42,580 per 10 grams following recent sharp drops.

Silver: Extended its losses to $53.50 per ounce, marking its lowest level since November 2025 due to softening industrial sentiment and a 6% drop in the prior session.

Recent U.S. consumer and producer price data showed higher-than-expected inflation, largely propelled by elevated energy costs. The rise in oil prices has reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment.

Despite the persistent inflationary pressures, markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October 27–28 meeting.

According to a study, traders are currently pricing in less than a 10% chance of a rate hike in October, compared to an 80% probability for the December meeting. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. PCE inflation data due on October 29 for further policy guidance.

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