International News
Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears
Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.
Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.
International News
Middle East conflict halts India-UAE diamond trade
Industry leaders warn of prolonged caution in markets, with potential shifts to alternative routes like Hong Kong under scrutiny.
Iran has launched over 1,300 drones and 229 missiles at the UAE since February 28, 2026, in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes that killed over 1,000 people, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. UAE air defenses intercepted most threats, but the attacks caused 3 deaths and 112 injuries, with debris damaging civilian areas.
Trade Dependencies
The UAE supplies more than two-thirds of India’s rough diamond imports, making it the dominant source for the country’s diamond processing industry. India, in turn, provides over 90% of the UAE’s polished diamond imports, underscoring the bilateral trade’s critical role in global diamond flows.
Logistics Breakdown
Nearly all flights between India and the UAE stand cancelled amid the conflict, except limited repatriation services, crippling air cargo routes. Daily diamond export parcels—typically 400 to 500 from India to UAE—have stopped entirely due to airspace closures and flight suspensions.
Industry Impact
Exports and imports from the Middle East have ground to a standstill, with no logistics available to move goods,
The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), hub of the Dubai Diamond Exchange, shifted to remote operations and declined further comment on disruptions.
Broader Implications
The Middle East accounts for nearly a quarter of India’s $30 billion annual gems and jewellery exports, amplifying the economic fallout for Mumbai’s diamond trade ecosystem. Industry leaders warn of prolonged caution in markets, with potential shifts to alternative routes like Hong Kong under scrutiny.
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