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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

Platinum Jewellery Gains Share Amid Record Gold Prices, PGI Reports Q4 2025 Market Shifts

Momentum key Regions In The Q4 Validates Platinum’s Growing Relevance In Today’s Jewellery Market.

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The Platinum Guild International (PGI) today released its Q4 2025 Platinum Jewellery Business Review (PJBR), highlighting varying regional performance trends, with platinum’s value proposition remaining supportive in key markets against a backdrop of record-high gold prices and evolving trade dynamics.

Tim Schlick, CEO of Platinum Guild International, Said:

“The momentum we observed across key regions in the fourth quarter validates platinum’s growing relevance in today’s jewellery market. With gold prices remaining elevated, platinum continues to offer a premium yet accessible alternative that appeals to value-conscious consumers and luxury buyers alike. Looking ahead, PGI remains committed to partnering with the trade to capitalise on this favourable price dynamic—driving innovation, supporting strategic marketing initiatives, and reinforcing platinum’s enduring value in bridal, fashion, and other key segments.”

Regional Market Highlights

China

China’s platinum fabrication softened further in Q4 after a strong first half, but still recorded a 56% annual increase for 2025. The slowdown was driven by a combination of slower inventory turnover and elevated metal prices, which diverted retailer capital towards gold and dampened restocking sentiment. Wholesalers liquidated generic stock to realise capital gains, while retailers prioritised operational resilience. Despite significant challenges, PGI’s retail partners outperformed the broader market, achieving a 7% year-over-year increase in platinum jewellery sales volume during the last quarter of 2025.

India and the Middle East

In India, platinum jewellery continued to outperform the broader market, with strategic partners’ retail sales growing 10% year-over-year. Overall jewellery demand saw a marginal uptick, supported by the festive season and a shift toward lightweight purchases, though volume growth was constrained by a high comparison base and sharp gold price increases. Promotional efforts for brands such as Men of Platinum reinforced platinum’s value amidst price volatility.

PGI continued expanding its UAE presence by onboarding new retailers, bringing the total to 174 stores at the end of 2025.

Japan

Japan’s jewellery market saw value recover in Q4 due to sustained price increases, while platinum jewellery unit sales recorded a notable 1.5% year-on-year recovery. This upturn was partly supported by substitution away from gold amid extreme price volatility. For the full year, platinum’s share of unit sales rose, whilst white gold’s share declined.

United States

In the U.S., platinum jewellery sales reflected a clear divergence between declining unit volumes and strong value growth, with dollar sales significantly outpacing volumes. Record-high gold prices cooled volume demand across the broader industry, but platinum’s price—remaining less than half that of gold—bolstered its appeal. Despite tariff-related headwinds, the shift from white gold to platinum accelerated, with strategic partners reporting double-digit revenue growth.

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