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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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US Midterm Elections: Gold, Silver Prices Surge As Democrats Take Control Of Congress

Democratic Win In Congress Creates Financial Support For Gold Because It Puts Downward Pressure On The U.S. Dollar and Interest Rates

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​Gold and silver prices jumped on Wednesday as election results pointed to major victories for the Democratic Party in the U.S. midterm elections.

​This continues a strong trend from 2025, a year in which gold prices rose by 66% and silver prices surged by 135%.

​Gold: Rose 3.4% to reach $4,073 per ounce.

​Silver: Rose 5.1% to reach $52.28 per ounce.

​The main driver was the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections. As votes were counted, projections showed that Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and took over several state governor positions.

​Here is how other major financial markets reacted to the news:

​U.S. Stocks: Rose as political uncertainty decreased.

​U.S. Dollar: Fell by about 0.3%.

​Treasury Yields (Interest Rates): Moved lower.

​Oil Prices: Went down.

Democratic win in Congress creates financial support for gold because it puts downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and interest rates.

A divided government often leads to political arguments over government budgets, creating economic uncertainty. At the same time, global issues like the war involving Iran and a weaker U.S. dollar are competing against the Federal Reserve’s effort to raise interest rates.

​In short, less government spending usually means lower long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar, which makes precious metals like gold and silver more attractive to investors.

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