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Gold sees significant decline on global trade tensions, recession fears

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Spot gold experienced a significant decline on Monday, April 7, 2025, dropping 0.3% to $3,027.90 per ounce after hitting a 3.5-week low earlier in the session. This unusual behavior for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, prompted market speculation that investors are selling bullion to realize profits or cover margin calls on other investments. The sell-off is attributed to escalating global trade tensions and the resulting fears of a potential global recession.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Morningstar’s John Mills foresees gold prices plummeting to $1,820 per ounce—a 38% decline—driven by easing inflation and potential trade normalization. Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri attributes recent volatility to factors like a weak US jobs report and dovish Fed signals, projecting key trading ranges for gold.  

Gold prices face a potential 38% decline, according to Morningstar’s John Mills, who forecasts a drop to $1,820 per ounce due to shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, Mehta Equities’ Rahul Kalantri warns of persistent extreme volatility, outlining specific support and resistance levels in both USD and INR, and attributing the recent swings to various economic indicators.  

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International News

Platinum Market Demonstrates Strong Resilience With Price Recovery

Rebound In Platinum Prices Is Primarily Attributed To Softer U.S. Dollar Sentiment and Declining Treasury Yields

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Global commodities markets are observing a significant shift in precious metals, as platinum (XPL) demonstrates a robust price recovery following a stabilization period in key support zones. The asset class is currently experiencing a constructive short-term upward trajectory, heavily influenced by shifting macroeconomic indicators and evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Strategic Market Drivers

The recent rebound in platinum prices is primarily attributed to a confluence of favorable macroeconomic factors, including softer U.S. dollar sentiment and declining Treasury yields. This capital reallocation toward precious metals has been further accelerated by a preliminary U.S.- Iran peace agreement. The geopolitical breakthrough has effectively mitigated energy inflation anxieties, providing a tailwind for industrial and precious commodities alike.

From a technical perspective, platinum has successfully established a firm baseline within the $1,650–$1,750 support corridor. Current market momentum indicates a near-term progression toward the $1,850–$1,900 resistance zone.

Outlook and Risk Assessment

While current indicators support a bullish short-term structure, institutional analysts emphasize that the asset’s mid-to-long-term trajectory remains contingent upon upcoming regulatory and macroeconomic milestones.

The impending Federal Reserve policy decision serves as a critical focal point for the market. Stakeholders are advised to monitor the following primary risk factors that could impact market consolidation or trigger a breakout:

  1. Monetary Policy Signalling: A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially capping platinum’s upward momentum.
  1. Industrial Demand: As a dual-use asset, platinum’s long-term valuation remains closely tied to global industrial manufacturing output.
  1. Technical Breakouts: Sustained price action above the $1,900 threshold will be required to validate a broader macro-rally toward the next institutional target of $2,170.
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