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Gold prices will increase during the festive season driven by  inflation, currency swings, interest rate, geopolitics

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Gold’s glitters brighter this festive season—but the yellow metal isn’t coming cheap. It’s not just the Diwali-Dhanteras rush. Gold dances to the tune of bigger forces—inflation, currency swings, interest rate outlooks, and even global geopolitics.

The prices post Dussehra at various corporate retail chains  were as follows:As of October 4, 2025, Tanishq  quoted 22K gold at Rs.10,985 per gram, while Malabar Gold & Diamonds, Joyalukkas, and Kalyan Jewellers held  steady at Rs.10,945 per gram. Remember, that’s before GST and making charges kick in, and rates may shuffle through the day depending on city-specific factors.

In value terms, sales registered a growth of approximately 30–35%, primarily driven by elevated bullion prices. With demand expected to strengthen further during the festive season, buyers are unlikely to secure gold at lower rates ahead of key occasions such as Dhanteras and Diwali. Despite a moderation in overall volumes, advance bookings for Dhanteras, Diwali, and the upcoming wedding season indicate that customers anticipate sustained price levels and are securing purchases accordingly.

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National News

Outstanding gold-backed loans  surge by  128% from a year earlier

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India’s appetite for borrowing against gold is reshaping the country’s credit landscape. Outstanding gold-backed loans have surged 128% from a year earlier, crossing Rs.4 lakh crore ($48 billion) for the first time, according to data from the Reserve Bank of India. As of Jan. 31, loans secured by gold jewellery stood at Rs.4,00,517 crore, marking one of the fastest expansions in retail credit in recent years.

The boom in gold loans has helped propel overall non-food bank credit growth to 14.4% year-on-year. Personal loans now account for 34.5% of total bank lending, outpacing other segments and underscoring a broader shift toward consumer-driven credit expansion

Gold loans alone contributed roughly 9% of incremental bank credit during the period. Between January 2024 and January 2026, outstanding gold-backed credit rose by nearly Rs.3.1 lakh crore—an increase of about 338% over two years—more than quadrupling the size of the portfolio.

Two factors are driving the surge. First, gold prices have climbed roughly 152% over the past two years, increasing the collateral value of household holdings. Second, regulatory guidance requiring banks to classify loans secured by gold explicitly as gold loans has sharpened reporting and accelerated balance-sheet growth in the segment.

The trend highlights a distinctive feature of India’s financial system: households’ vast stock of physical gold, long viewed primarily as a store of wealth, is increasingly being mobilized as collateral for formal credit.

While personal lending and credit to nonbank financial companies within the services sector continue to expand rapidly, industrial credit remains uneven. Loans to micro, small and medium enterprises are growing steadily, but borrowing by large corporations has stayed relatively muted.

Since March 21, 2025, banks have added Rs.21.8 lakh crore to their non-food loan books, translating into 12% growth for the financial year to date. Yet it is gold—rather than factories or infrastructure—that is emerging as one of the most dynamic engines of India’s current credit cycle.

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