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Gold prices surge amid geopolitical tensions and US Fed policy speculations

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Gold prices surged near two-month highs after Israel launched a major military strike on Iran, targeting key nuclear and military facilities. Spot gold rose to $3,417.10 while August futures climbed to $3,436.90, driven by safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions spiked. Iran retaliated with over 100 drones toward Israel, further escalating fears. Meanwhile, softer U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut, supporting gold’s momentum. The combination of Middle East conflict and easing inflation is pushing investors toward gold as a hedge. Gold remains in focus as global uncertainty deepens.

Gold prices have been on an upward trajectory in mid-June 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipations surrounding the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision. On Sunday (June 15), domestic gold futures closed above Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams, marking a significant milestone. This surge reflects heightened investor interest amid global uncertainties.

The prices continued their ascent, with 24-carat gold trading at new record highs across major Indian cities on Monday (June 16). For instance, in Bhopal, gold prices surpassed ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams, while silver reached ₹1.06 lakh per kilogram.

The recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has significantly impacted global markets. Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13 led to a sharp rise in oil prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The conflict has also contributed to broader market volatility, further boosting gold’s appeal as a secure investment.

Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching ₹1.05 lakh per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). This projection is based on sustained geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance. The market is closely watching the Fed’s decision on June 18, as any indications of dovish policies could further support gold’s upward momentum.

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International News

De Beers Group Reports H1 2026 Production Surge

The company reported a significant increase in production volume while maintaining its full-year production target of 21 to 26 million carats.

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De Beers Group today released its operational and sales performance update for the second quarter and first half of 2026. Driven by strong recovery efforts and strategic access to higher-grade ore bodies, the company reported a significant increase in production volume while maintaining its full-year production target of 21 to 26 million carats.

Despite market pressures stemming from broader macroeconomic volatility, the company continues to advance operational streamlining and cost-optimization initiatives to ensure long-term resilience.

Key Highlights & Operational Summary

  • Q2 Production Surge: Production jumped 88% year-on-year to 7.8 million carats in the second quarter, bringing total H1 output to 14.9 million carats (+46% YoY).
  • Volume Growth: Consolidated H1 sales volume expanded 13% to 12.4 million carats (total sales volume up 20% to 14.8 million carats).
  • Full-Year Guidance Reaffirmed: Full-year output remains targeted at 21–26 million carats, with second-half production planned to balance out via scheduled maintenance and a temporary operational pause at the Venetia mine.
  • Resilient High-Value Demand: While entry-level categories faced broader pricing shifts, pricing for higher-value natural diamonds remained firm, providing baseline support to the overall index.

Market Dynamics & Strategic Response

Trading conditions during the first six months of 2026 reflected ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainties and regional conflicts that weighed on general consumer sentiment. Additionally, lower-value natural categories experienced continued pressure from lab-grown alternatives.

In response, De Beers actively adjusted its sales strategies, utilizing its inventory mix to meet existing market demand. While lower-value inventory sales shifted the average realized price to $105 per carat for H1, the company noted that underlying value indices for premium, higher-grade natural goods remained stable throughout the period.

Outlook & Portfolio Optimization

Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, De Beers will align production output directly with global demand signals. The anticipated surge from H1 will be offset by:

  • The previously announced two-year operational pause at the Venetia mine.
  • Planned facility maintenance at the Orapa and Jwaneng operations in Botswana.

Anglo American continues to execute its operational transformation and strategic divestment plans for De Beers, ensuring capital discipline and long-term organizational value.

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