International News
Gold prices surge amid geopolitical tensions and US Fed policy speculations
Gold prices surged near two-month highs after Israel launched a major military strike on Iran, targeting key nuclear and military facilities. Spot gold rose to $3,417.10 while August futures climbed to $3,436.90, driven by safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions spiked. Iran retaliated with over 100 drones toward Israel, further escalating fears. Meanwhile, softer U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut, supporting gold’s momentum. The combination of Middle East conflict and easing inflation is pushing investors toward gold as a hedge. Gold remains in focus as global uncertainty deepens.
Gold prices have been on an upward trajectory in mid-June 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipations surrounding the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision. On Sunday (June 15), domestic gold futures closed above Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams, marking a significant milestone. This surge reflects heightened investor interest amid global uncertainties.
The prices continued their ascent, with 24-carat gold trading at new record highs across major Indian cities on Monday (June 16). For instance, in Bhopal, gold prices surpassed ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams, while silver reached ₹1.06 lakh per kilogram.
The recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has significantly impacted global markets. Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13 led to a sharp rise in oil prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The conflict has also contributed to broader market volatility, further boosting gold’s appeal as a secure investment.
Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching ₹1.05 lakh per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). This projection is based on sustained geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance. The market is closely watching the Fed’s decision on June 18, as any indications of dovish policies could further support gold’s upward momentum.
International News
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Gold Is Trading At Y Oversold Levels Near The Critical Support Zone Of $4,300, Silver Testing Key Support In The $66–$67 Range
- Price Movement – Gold and silver are consolidating near key support levels as markets digest a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside mounting concerns over inflation and the prospect of further interest rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments – President Trump confirmed that both parties are pursuing an immediate ceasefire, with final negotiations advancing. Israel and Iran announced a mutual halt to hostilities following a direct appeal from Washington. However, Tehran cautioned that it reserves the right to resume strikes if Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue.
- Macro-economic Signals – CME FedWatch data shows markets now pricing a greater than 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by December. Investors are closely watching May’s U.S. CPI and PPI releases, due Wednesday, for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy trajectory. The European Central Bank is also widely expected to deliver a rate increase this week.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is currently trading at deeply oversold levels near the critical support zone of $4,300 (approximately Rs. 1,54,000). A technical rebound of 3–4% is anticipated from current levels, driven by bottom-fishing activity. However, a sustained break below this support would shift the near-term bias decisively lower, exposing the $4,000–$4,100 range (approximately Rs. 1,50,000–Rs. 1,51,500) as the next downside target.
- Silver is similarly oversold, testing key support in the $66–$67 range (approximately Rs. 2,40,000–Rs. 2,42,000). As with gold, a 3–4% technical recovery is the base case on dip-buying, but a confirmed sustainability below this support would accelerate selling pressure toward $60 (approximately Rs. 2,20,000) in the short term.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4300/oz : $4500/oz : Rs 154,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $66/oz : $75/oz : Rs 240,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
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