International News
Gold prices surge amid geopolitical tensions and US Fed policy speculations
Gold prices surged near two-month highs after Israel launched a major military strike on Iran, targeting key nuclear and military facilities. Spot gold rose to $3,417.10 while August futures climbed to $3,436.90, driven by safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions spiked. Iran retaliated with over 100 drones toward Israel, further escalating fears. Meanwhile, softer U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut, supporting gold’s momentum. The combination of Middle East conflict and easing inflation is pushing investors toward gold as a hedge. Gold remains in focus as global uncertainty deepens.
Gold prices have been on an upward trajectory in mid-June 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipations surrounding the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision. On Sunday (June 15), domestic gold futures closed above Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams, marking a significant milestone. This surge reflects heightened investor interest amid global uncertainties.
The prices continued their ascent, with 24-carat gold trading at new record highs across major Indian cities on Monday (June 16). For instance, in Bhopal, gold prices surpassed ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams, while silver reached ₹1.06 lakh per kilogram.
The recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has significantly impacted global markets. Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13 led to a sharp rise in oil prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The conflict has also contributed to broader market volatility, further boosting gold’s appeal as a secure investment.
Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching ₹1.05 lakh per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). This projection is based on sustained geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance. The market is closely watching the Fed’s decision on June 18, as any indications of dovish policies could further support gold’s upward momentum.
International News
Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Crisis Disrupting Energy Supplies, Pushing Inflation Risks Higher, Increasing The Probability Of Central Bank Interest Rate Hikes
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver prices are consolidating as investors assess the possibility of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and the uncertain future of the current ceasefire. Both nations are scheduled for peace negotiations in Islamabad this week. However, the ceasefire came under threat on Monday following the seizure of a cargo vessel, raising doubts about whether talks will proceed as planned.
- Geopolitical Developments– The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused a significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes — both of which create headwinds for gold prices. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump indicated he will not extend the truce if no agreement is reached before its deadline, and has stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until a deal is finalized.
- Macro-economic Signals – Markets are closely watching for clarity on whether the Islamabad talks will proceed, and if so, whether they result in a ceasefire extension or a broader peace agreement. Gold’s price direction will continue to be driven by Middle East outcomes and their downstream effects on energy costs and inflation expectations.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is trading in the range of $4750 (~ Rs 152,500) and $4850 (~Rs 155,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown will give 3-4% directional move.
- Silver is trading in the range of $78 (~ Rs 248,000) and $81 (~Rs 257,000) from past few days. Either side breakout or breakdown from this band will give 3-4% price swing.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $75/oz : $82/oz : Rs 235,000/kg : Rs 260,000/kg |
Precious Metals at the Crossroads – Geopolitics, Inflation, and Key Technical Levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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