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Gold consolidates in the $50 range before a decisive move: Augmont Bullion Report

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Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885 and $2935, spurred by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven flows as fears about the US economy grow amid growing trade tensions.

Concerns over a probable economic slowdown were heightened after President Donald Trump stated that the US economy was in a moment of transition while refusing to rule out the chance that his policies would create a recession.

This comes after the United States delayed imposing 25% tariffs on several Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, while Canada maintained its first retaliatory measures. China also levied further duties on some American agriculture products in reaction to Trump’s latest tariff increases on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged increased economic uncertainties but expressed no need to decrease interest rates.

Investors are now looking forward to US inflation statistics later this week, which may impact the Fed’s monetary policy position.

Technical Triggers      

Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885(~Rs 85400) and $2935(~Rs 86200), prices need to break this range for decisive move towards upside momentum of $2975 (~Rs 87000). 

Silver May Futures is gaining strength and if sustains above $330(~Rs 96700), the next target is $340(~Rs 100,000), and once it sustains above that, it can head higher towards $350(~Rs 103,000).

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The Government Reduces Duty Drawback Rate For Gold, Silver Jewellery Exports.

Lower Tax Refunds Will Make Indian Gold and Silver Jewellery Exports More Expensive In The Global Market.

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The Indian government has reduced the duty drawback rates—the tax refunds given to exporters for duties paid on imported raw materials—for gold and silver jewellery exports.

​Gold Jewellery: The refund rate has been cut by 3.1%, dropping from Rs 1,851.99 to Rs 1,794.11 per gram.

​Silver Jewellery & Articles: The refund rate has been cut by about 9%, dropping from Rs 29,501.09 to Rs 26,859.02 per kilogram.

Back in July, the government nearly doubled these refund rates to support exporters against rising global costs. However, because gold and silver prices have since fallen—reducing the actual import duty paid in real terms—the government adjusted the drawback rates downward to match current market conditions.

​Impact: Lower tax refunds will make Indian gold and silver jewellery exports more expensive in the global market.

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