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Gold consolidates in the $50 range before a decisive move: Augmont Bullion Report

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Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885 and $2935, spurred by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven flows as fears about the US economy grow amid growing trade tensions.

Concerns over a probable economic slowdown were heightened after President Donald Trump stated that the US economy was in a moment of transition while refusing to rule out the chance that his policies would create a recession.

This comes after the United States delayed imposing 25% tariffs on several Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, while Canada maintained its first retaliatory measures. China also levied further duties on some American agriculture products in reaction to Trump’s latest tariff increases on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged increased economic uncertainties but expressed no need to decrease interest rates.

Investors are now looking forward to US inflation statistics later this week, which may impact the Fed’s monetary policy position.

Technical Triggers      

Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885(~Rs 85400) and $2935(~Rs 86200), prices need to break this range for decisive move towards upside momentum of $2975 (~Rs 87000). 

Silver May Futures is gaining strength and if sustains above $330(~Rs 96700), the next target is $340(~Rs 100,000), and once it sustains above that, it can head higher towards $350(~Rs 103,000).

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MCX Gold August Futures Declined Over 1%; MCX Silver September Futures Crashed More Than 2%

Experts Expects Gold and Silver Prices To Remain Volatile This Week Due To Volatility In Crude Oil Prices and The Dollar Index

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On July 13, gold and silver prices in India saw a sharp decline. MCX gold August futures declined over 1% to Rs.1,41,820 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September futures crashed more than 2% to Rs.2,17,448 per kg in early deals after crude oil prices jumped 4%, driving the dollar index higher.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced strikes against Iran on 12 July, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations with precision munitions to “degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices jumped 4%, reviving inflationary fears and expectations of aggressive monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks globally.

Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but it tends to decline during periods of monetary tightening because it is a non-yielding asset. Along with the Middle East conflict, investors’ focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first semiannual testimony before Congress, as well as June CPI, PPI and retail sales data, which will provide fresh clues on the US economy and the monetary policy outlook.

Experts expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week due to volatility in crude oil prices and the dollar index, geopolitical tensions, and caution ahead of U.S. inflation data.

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