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Gold consolidates in the $50 range before a decisive move: Augmont Bullion Report

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Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885 and $2935, spurred by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven flows as fears about the US economy grow amid growing trade tensions.

Concerns over a probable economic slowdown were heightened after President Donald Trump stated that the US economy was in a moment of transition while refusing to rule out the chance that his policies would create a recession.

This comes after the United States delayed imposing 25% tariffs on several Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, while Canada maintained its first retaliatory measures. China also levied further duties on some American agriculture products in reaction to Trump’s latest tariff increases on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged increased economic uncertainties but expressed no need to decrease interest rates.

Investors are now looking forward to US inflation statistics later this week, which may impact the Fed’s monetary policy position.

Technical Triggers      

Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885(~Rs 85400) and $2935(~Rs 86200), prices need to break this range for decisive move towards upside momentum of $2975 (~Rs 87000). 

Silver May Futures is gaining strength and if sustains above $330(~Rs 96700), the next target is $340(~Rs 100,000), and once it sustains above that, it can head higher towards $350(~Rs 103,000).

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National News

Smuggled Gold Distorting India’s Bullion Market

Sharp Rise In Smuggled Gold, Driven Largely By The May 2026 Hike In Import Duty To 15%, Which Has Made The Grey Market Significantly Cheaper Than Legal Channels and Squeezed Legitimate Dealers and Jewellers

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India’s bullion market is being skewed by a sharp rise in smuggled gold, driven largely by the May 2026 hike in import duty to 15%, which has made the grey market significantly cheaper than legal channels and squeezed legitimate dealers and jewellers.

Market distortion and price gap

  • Smuggled gold is now selling at discounts of up to Rs 8,000 per 10 grams compared with official prices, creating a wide arbitrage that undercuts compliant traders.
  • Industry executives warn that this price gap is a clear signal of an active grey market, disadvantaging genuine bullion dealers and organised jewellers who pay full duty and taxes.

Scale of illegal inflows

  • Industry estimates suggest more than 100 tonnes of gold could enter India through illegal channels in 2026, echoing past surges in smuggling after earlier duty hikes.
  • Despite the higher tariff, India’s gold import bill rose 24% to a record $71.9 billion in FY26, even as physical volumes fell to about 721 tonnes, indicating persistent demand being met partly via unofficial routes.

Enforcement response

  • Revenue intelligence agencies, particularly the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI), have intensified operations against organised smuggling networks using airports, land borders, coastal routes and domestic road transport
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