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Gold consolidates in the $50 range before a decisive move: Augmont Bullion Report

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Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885 and $2935, spurred by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven flows as fears about the US economy grow amid growing trade tensions.

Concerns over a probable economic slowdown were heightened after President Donald Trump stated that the US economy was in a moment of transition while refusing to rule out the chance that his policies would create a recession.

This comes after the United States delayed imposing 25% tariffs on several Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, while Canada maintained its first retaliatory measures. China also levied further duties on some American agriculture products in reaction to Trump’s latest tariff increases on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged increased economic uncertainties but expressed no need to decrease interest rates.

Investors are now looking forward to US inflation statistics later this week, which may impact the Fed’s monetary policy position.

Technical Triggers      

Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885(~Rs 85400) and $2935(~Rs 86200), prices need to break this range for decisive move towards upside momentum of $2975 (~Rs 87000). 

Silver May Futures is gaining strength and if sustains above $330(~Rs 96700), the next target is $340(~Rs 100,000), and once it sustains above that, it can head higher towards $350(~Rs 103,000).

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Jewellery Manufacturers Seek Tax Relief As Rising Gold Prices Inflate Inventory Valuations

Higher Gold Prices Sustained Turnover Value, But Jewellery Volumes Declined As Consumers Adjusted To Costlier Purchases.

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Jewellery manufacturers in Coimbatore have submitted a representation to the Government of India seeking a review of the existing methodology for valuation of gold inventory for income tax purposes, citing significant financial pressures arising from the sharp increase in gold prices.

According to industry representatives, the closing stock value of gold held by jewellery manufacturers and retailers is currently determined on the basis of the weighted average cost of inventory available at the end of the financial year. The sector has highlighted that gold prices witnessed an increase of approximately 65 per cent between March 2025 and March 2026, resulting in a substantial rise in the book value of inventory.

Industry stakeholders have stated that while the monetary value of sales turnover may have remained comparable to the previous year due to higher gold prices, the actual quantity of jewellery sold has declined as consumers adjust to elevated price levels. Consequently, manufacturers contend that the appreciation in inventory value is being reflected in taxable income despite the absence of corresponding realised sales and cash flows.

The industry has further represented that maintaining adequate gold inventory is essential for meeting consumer demand for a wide range of designs and product categories. As a result, manufacturers are unable to significantly reduce stock holdings without affecting business operations and market competitiveness.

Particular concern has been expressed by micro and small-scale jewellery manufacturers, who report increased working capital requirements and liquidity constraints arising from taxation linked to inventory appreciation. Industry associations have requested that the Government examine alternative valuation or taxation mechanisms that more accurately reflect realised business income and cash generation.

The representation seeks consideration of suitable policy measures to address the financial impact of inventory value appreciation on jewellery manufacturers while ensuring continued compliance with taxation requirements and supporting the sustainability of the sector. Hence, the government should take separate statement of the gold stock with the manufacturers every year. It should collect advance tax based on the sales.

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