National News
Gold consolidates in the $50 range before a decisive move: Augmont Bullion Report
Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885 and $2935, spurred by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven flows as fears about the US economy grow amid growing trade tensions.
Concerns over a probable economic slowdown were heightened after President Donald Trump stated that the US economy was in a moment of transition while refusing to rule out the chance that his policies would create a recession.
This comes after the United States delayed imposing 25% tariffs on several Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, while Canada maintained its first retaliatory measures. China also levied further duties on some American agriculture products in reaction to Trump’s latest tariff increases on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged increased economic uncertainties but expressed no need to decrease interest rates.
Investors are now looking forward to US inflation statistics later this week, which may impact the Fed’s monetary policy position.
Technical Triggers
Gold prices are consolidating in a range between $2885(~Rs 85400) and $2935(~Rs 86200), prices need to break this range for decisive move towards upside momentum of $2975 (~Rs 87000).
Silver May Futures is gaining strength and if sustains above $330(~Rs 96700), the next target is $340(~Rs 100,000), and once it sustains above that, it can head higher towards $350(~Rs 103,000).
National News
Precious Metals rebound back from crucial support levels AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- Safe Heaven Dynamics – Gold rebounding above $5000 and silver above $80 reflects renewed safe-haven demand after a sharp correction. However, upside remains capped as fading expectations of near-term US rate cuts increase real yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding Gold and Silver. This creates a tug-of-war between geopolitical support and monetary headwinds, leading to volatile but range-bound price action.
- Geopolitical Developments – The prolonged US–Israel–Iran conflict, particularly threats to Iran’s oil infrastructure at Kharg Island, has kept crude prices elevated. Higher energy prices are feeding inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of aggressive monetary easing. While geopolitical risk supports gold and silver, persistent inflation fears indirectly pressure prices by strengthening the dollar and bond yields.
- Monetary Policy stance – The Federal Reserve and other major central banks maintaining a pause signals a “higher-for-longer” rate environment. This limits immediate upside in precious metals by keeping real interest rates elevated. However, any shift toward dovish guidance or delayed tightening could quickly revive bullish momentum, making policy signals the key trigger for the next directional move.
Technical Triggers
- Gold briefly broke the key $5000 (~Rs.157,000) support but failed to sustain lower levels, indicating near-term consolidation. However, short-term bias remains bearish with strong support seen around $4850 (~₹150,000).
- Silver also slipped below $80 (~Rs.255,000) but recovered quickly. A renewed break below $77 (~Rs.247,000) could trigger further profit-booking, dragging prices towards $70 (~Rs.230,000) in the near term.
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $4850 / oz | $5250 / oz |
| Gold | Domestic | ₹158,500 / 10 gm | ₹165,000 / 10 gm |
| Silver | International | $77 / oz | $85 / oz |
| Silver | Domestic | ₹247,000 / kg | ₹268,000 / kg |
Source:AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
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