Physical investment is a structurally important part of global silver demand, and the most volatile. Notably, over the past 15 years, physical silver investment has ranged between a low of 157.2 million ounces (Moz) in 2017 and a record high of 337.6 Moz, established in 2022. With growing geopolitical tensions, rising government debt, and an increasing investor perception that silver is undervalued compared to gold, the silver price has experienced a 34 percent year-to-date increase. By comparison, the white metal is outperforming gold, which is up 28 percent, and Bitcoin, rising 18 percent year-to-date. 

To gain a deeper understanding of this critical demand center, the Silver Institute commissioned Metals Focus, a leading precious metals consultancy based in London, to produce a new Market Trend Report on the “Key Physical Silver Investment Markets.” The report examines the leading global physical silver markets:  the United States, India, Germany, and Australia.

 Key points from the report include:

The United States 

• The scale of US buying has been astounding, with a combined total of 1.5 billion ounces (Boz) of silver purchased by retail investors between 2010 and 2024.
• The value of US silver physical investment has averaged around 70% of the value of gold investment purchases, compared to just 6% in the rest of the world. 
• Investment in Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) remains a significant part of US physical silver investment. However, precious metals account for a small share of the total IRA market, offering considerable room for IRA silver demand to grow further.
• Through late 2023, there was an exceptionally low level of retail liquidations, but these have increased since then. Even so, US investors still hold much of the 1.5 Boz acquired over the last 15 years.

India

• India is the second-largest physical silver investment market, but it has occasionally eclipsed the US, which has traditionally been the largest physical silver market. 
• The country has a long-standing tradition of owning physical silver, typically in the form of silver bars, which in 2024 comprised 70% of total retail demand.
• Attractive local prices helped boost retail silver investment up 21% in 2024
• Between 2010 and 2024, the cumulative demand for Indian bars and coins totaled 840 million ounces. Even at today’s higher and sometimes record-setting rupee prices, the scale of selling back has been surprisingly modest.

Germany

• Germany has long held the position of the third-largest market for retail silver bar and coin investment, a market that has been volatile in recent years, with physical investment averaging 48.5 million ounces (Moz) from 2020 to 2022.
• The German physical silver market has long been dominated by bullion coins, accounting for roughly 80% of the market.
• However, the end of favorable tax treatment at the end of 2022 has weighed on the German physical silver market, with German net silver demand slumping by 39 million ounces (Moz) since 2023, and the gold market also seeing a sharp decline.
• This year has seen a partial recovery supported by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, with a forecasted 25 percent year-over-year increase in physical silver investment demand in Germany.

Australia

• Australia has emerged as the world’s fourth-largest physical silver market in recent years.
• As recently as 2019, Australian silver coin and bar demand stood at just under 3.5 million ounces. By 2022, it had surged to a record high of 20.7 Moz.
• Two factors have contributed to the growth of the Australian market: the increasing popularity of investing in silver in retirement accounts and the favorable tax structure applicable to physical silver investment products.
• Australian physical silver demand is forecast to rise by 11 percent this year as cost-of-living-related selling of precious metals eases, with inflation edging lower and interest rates falling. 

• Amid worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve following President Trump’s threats to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, gold prices remained close to their two-week high due to their safety appeal.
• At the Fed’s policy meeting next month, markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut, which is more than 88% likely, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
• Markets seem to be confident that a new wave of U.S. tariffs might weaken global strength, making trade policy another crucial factor for gold. An additional factor supporting gold’s safe-haven bid could be ongoing geopolitical danger, such as Ukraine’s increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Technical Triggers  

• Gold Oct Futures are expected to continue their upside momentum towards $3485 (~Rs 102,500), if it sustains above $3445 (~Rs 101,500).
• As Silver Sep Futures has broken its range and sustained above $38.80 (~Rs 116,000), upside momentum can swing prices towards a new high of $40 (~Rs 120,000) this week.

• Gold and silver prices are staying within a narrow range as traders await significant movements in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which could provide clues about the direction of US policy.
• Despite indications of a weakening job market and inflation that is still above goal and susceptible to pressures from tariffs, Fed policymakers on Thursday showed scant support for a rate decrease next month, leaving markets looking to Powell’s speech for clarity. 
• With markets pricing in a 75% chance of a quarter-point cut, investors continue to view policy easing as a possibility in September.
• Geopolitical optimism for a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine waned when reports surfaced that Russia had launched its biggest drone and missile attack on Ukraine in over a month. Moscow accused Kyiv of rejecting the prospect of a “lasting and fair settlement.

Technical Triggers        

• Gold seems to continue its downward trajectory after sustaining below $3400. Next support is $3340 (Rs 98500), while $3445 (Rs 100,500) remains the resistance.
• Silver prices are expected to consolidate in a range of $37(Rs 110,500) to $39 (Rs 115,000). Buy on dips and sell on rallies.

Support and Resistance