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CRISIL RATINGS: Diamond Exports dip ~10% this fiscal as tariffs take effect

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The 10% additional tariff levied by the US, which accounts for nearly a third of Indian natural diamond exports, will exacerbate the impact on Indian diamantaires from already-subdued demand and intensifying competition from lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), which closely resemble natural diamonds and cost much less. In the milieu, export revenues of diamantaires will decline ~8-10% in fiscal 2026.

That said, calibrated inventory management across the value chain will support realisations, thus helping reduce the decline in export revenues, and limit the erosion of operating margins, helping contain the players’ financial leverage and credit metrics.

A Crisil Ratings analysis of 43 diamantaires, accounting for nearly one-fourth of the industry revenues, indicates as much.

In fiscal 2025, the export volumes of natural diamonds remained constrained by lower demand from China and competition from LGD in the US. Although polishers pushed sales in the fourth quarter to avoid tariffs and price erosion was limited, revenues from natural diamond exports fell 17% to ~$13.3 billion.

Says Rahul Guha, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings, “This fiscal, realisations on natural diamonds are poised to rebound 3-4% amid limited inventory across the value chain as diamantaires are aligning their rough purchases with visibility in sales of polished diamonds. Additionally, production cuts by miners will curtail price erosion. This contrasts with LGD, whose prices may reduce from a tenth of the price of natural diamonds last fiscal to a twelfth in the current fiscal, resulting in a wider price gap between natural diamonds and LGD.”

The rising price gap, in turn, could shave a further 12-14% off natural diamond export volumes, marking a third consecutive year of weak demand after an aggregate degrowth of 32% in the last two fiscals. That will make it difficult for the natural diamond polishers to pass on any tariff-led price hikes to customers. For the record, India will remain the primary port of call for polishing diamonds.

Says Himank Sharma, Director, Crisil Ratings, “Natural diamond polishers, traditionally operating at thin margins of 4-5%, will have limited ability to absorb the tariff-induced price rise. As a result, miners and retailers may need to step in to absorb some of the price shocks. Consequently, we believe the operating margins of polishers may dip 20-30 basis points to 4.3-4.5% this fiscal.”

Credit profiles of diamantaires might witness some working capital respite as weak demand will lead to a further 5-7% cut in inventory levels across the value chain (after a 10-15% decline last fiscal). This will limit the need for debt-funded working capital, although receivables from export customers will remain monitorable amid tepid demand, geopolitical issues and global uncertainties.

As a result, diamantaires’ financial leverage – total outside liabilities to adjusted networth – and interest coverage will remain rangebound at ~0.8 time and ~2.5 times, respectively, this fiscal.

All said, slowing demand for natural diamonds in key geographies, intensifying competition from LGDs, potential revisions in tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions will bear watching.

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DiamondBuzz

Dubai Facilitates Over 1 Billion Carats in Diamond Trade as UAE Leads Kimberley Process Reforms

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Dubai has traded more than 1.06 billion carats of rough and polished diamonds over the past five years, according to Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Chair of the Kimberley Process (KP) and Executive Chairman and CEO of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC). In 2024 alone, the emirate facilitated the trade of nearly 179 million carats, reaffirming its position as a global diamond trading hub.

The announcement was made during the Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting, held in Dubai, which brought together hundreds of stakeholders from governments, industry, and civil society. The gathering focused on strengthening traceability, governance, and sustainability in the global diamond supply chain. This marks the UAE’s third term as KP Chair, and the second consecutive year it has led the initiative.

A major highlight of the event was the launch of Verifico, a digital platform designed to enhance the traceability and security of KP certificates. The platform is being made available to all KP participants as part of the UAE’s broader push toward digital transformation in the diamond trade.

Bin Sulayem also called for the first-ever ministerial meeting of KP member states to address mounting global challenges in the diamond industry. Highlighting the critical role of major markets, he stated: “The US, India, and the UAE are the key pillars sustaining the global diamond trade. The Kimberley Process must stay focused to ensure we support growth, resilience, and sustainable development.”

Opening the conference, H.E. Safeya Hashem Al Safi, Acting Assistant Undersecretary at the UAE Ministry of Economy, emphasized Dubai’s journey: “From modest origins, Dubai has risen to become the world’s leading rough diamond trading center. This reflects our economic diversification strategy and our long-term commitment to the diamond sector.”

Feriel Zerouki, President of the World Diamond Council, praised Bin Sulayem’s leadership: “His vision—defining the past two years as the ‘Year of Delivery’ and ‘Year of Best Practice’—provided the clarity and unity needed to overcome long-standing challenges.”

Jaff Bamenjo, from the Civil Society Coalition, echoed the call for meaningful progress: “The KP must deliver on long-promised reforms. A collective, renewed commitment is essential to achieve credible progress during this final year of the current KP reform cycle.”

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DiamondBuzz

De Beers  offers rough diamond discounts of 10% to 20% in secret deals

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Multiple industry sources report that De Beers has secretly offered rough diamond discounts of 10% to 20% to a select group of sightholders, a departure from its usual practice of uniform pricing. These “secret deals” have not been officially confirmed by De Beers but are widely discussed within the industry.

The selective discounts appear aimed at quickly moving inventory and generating cash flow, given the company’s financial losses and pressure from Anglo American to improve performance.

Market Reaction: This selective discounting is unprecedented for De Beers and risks alienating sightholders who were not offered these preferential terms, potentially undermining trust and long-term relationships within its customer base.

The company is attempting to reduce a rough diamond stockpile estimated at $2 billion, the largest since the 2008 financial crisis, as global demand remains weak and manufacturers are hesitant to restock.

 De Beers’ consolidated rough diamond revenue for the first two sights of 2025 dropped 44% year-over-year, with the average realized price per carat falling by 38%. The company has also cut its 2025 production forecast by up to 40%, now targeting 20–23 million carats, down from an initial 30–33 million.

Strategic Implications

Short-Term Cash Flow:

Long-Term Risks: The lack of transparency and favoritism in discounting could damage De Beers’ reputation for fairness and erode the loyalty of sightholders not included in the deals. This could have lasting effects on its ability to maintain a stable, committed customer base.

Industry Impact: The move signals ongoing distress in the natural diamond sector, with persistent oversupply, weak demand, and heightened competition from lab-grown diamonds contributing to industry-wide price declines.

Conclusion

De Beers’ decision to offer significant, selective discounts on rough diamonds marks a notable shift in its sales strategy, reflecting the severity of current market challenges. While this may provide short-term relief in reducing stockpiles and supporting cash flow, it introduces risks to long-term customer relationships and market stability. The industry will closely watch how De Beers manages these tensions and whether transparency and trust can be restored among its sightholders.

Related

How might these discounts impact De Beers’ long-term relationships with sightholders

What are the potential risks for De Beers if these discounts become public

How does De Beers determine which sightholders receive these special discounts

What strategies can De Beers use to manage the stockpile effectively

How might these discounts affect the overall diamond market

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De Beers CEO: confident the US will exempt diamonds from reciprocal tariffs

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De Beers CEO Al Cook says he’s confident the US will exempt diamonds from reciprocal tariffs.He told the FT they were of “no benefit”, given that there are no US diamond mining jobs to protect, and that they would function as nothing more than a tax on American consumers.”People are confident enough that in the long term, diamonds will be exempted from tariffs,” he told the FT, indicating that an exemption may happen, but not immediately.

Cook echoed the views of World Diamond Council president Feriel Zerouki, who is urging the Trump administration to exclude natural diamonds from a tariff due to be implemented on 9 July, when a 90-day pause expires.

Diamonds, along with almost all other goods from all other countries, are currently subject to a baseline levy of 10 per cent on entry to the US, payable by the importer.

Cook, and many others, are calling for diamonds to be exempted from the additional burden of reciprocal tariffs, set at 26 per cent for India, by far the biggest supplier of polished stones, and on a sliding scale for other trading partners.

The US is the world’s largest diamond jewelry market by far, but has no domestic diamond mining industry.

“This is not about special treatment, this is about recognizing the unique structure of a global industry with no domestic production and ensuring policies support American businesses and consumers,” Zerouki said last week.

An exemption would help safeguard the $117bn US jewelry industry and protect the jobs of over 200,000 Americans, she said.

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