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Botswana’s economic outlook negative due to diamond market pressures: S&P Global

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S&P Global Ratings has revised Botswana’s economic outlook to negative from stable, citing external and fiscal pressures. The agency confirmed its ’BBB+/A-2’ long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings for the country. The decision reflects the challenges Botswana faces due to decreased global demand and prices for diamonds, which are pivotal to its fiscal revenues and exports.

Botswana’s economy is heavily reliant on diamonds. They account for around 80 per cent of its export earnings and a third of total budget revenues.

De Beers and the Botswana government finally reached agreement last month on the long-term mining and rough sales deals, but sales by their joint venture, Debswana, were down by 52 per cent for the first three quarters of 2024, and there a few signs of a sustained recovery in demand.

The agency projects that without a significant fiscal effort by the government or a substantial increase in diamond prices and sales volumes, Botswana’s fiscal consolidation efforts will remain challenging. It forecasts government debt, net of liquid assets, to rise to 19% of GDP by 2028 from 3% in 2024.

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DiamondBuzz

South African Task Team To Help Struggling Diamond Producers

The South African Government Has Partnered With Mining Industry Leaders To Form A Joint Task Team Aimed At Saving Jobs and Supporting Diamond Producers Facing Severe Market Pressures.

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​The quick intervention follows major disruptions in the local sector, including Petra Diamonds placing its Finsch mine under business rescue and De Beers announcing a two-year production pause at Venetia, the country’s largest diamond mine.

​In a parliamentary reply on October 26, Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe confirmed that the team—which includes the Minerals Council South Africa and local diamond producers—will develop strategies to help mines survive current economic headwinds.

The immediate focus is finding practical solutions to protect operations across the entire sector, especially junior and small-scale miners who are being hit the hardest,

​Key Industry Challenges

The local diamond sector faces a combination of falling global prices, rising operating costs, and intense competition from lab-grown synthetic diamonds. Official figures highlight the severity of the crisis:

​Production Downturn: South African diamond output dropped 19.5% year-to-date through August.

​Commodity Slump: According to Statistics South Africa, diamond mining was the weakest-performing mining sub-sector in August, with output falling 23.0% in the three months ending August compared to the previous three months.

​Significant Mine Reductions: De Beers reported a 37% year-on-year drop in South African production for Q3 2026 (down to 418,000 carats) as operations wrap up ahead of Venetia’s pause. De Beers expects zero further production in South Africa for the remainder of 2026.

​Price Pressures: Lower market values and a strong South African rand reduced average tender prices at the Finsch mine from $56 to $47 per carat, making ongoing operations unviable under current conditions.

The task team will focus on measures to ease cost pressures and address global market shifts. Further details regarding the team’s specific work plan, timelines, and financial resources will be announced as proposals are finalized.

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