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WGC Gold ETF commentary:  Asia erupts as global momentum builds

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April in review 

Global physically backed gold ETFs1 added US$11bn in April, extending their  inflow streak to five months (Table 1, p2).2 Supported by a higher gold price and  continued inflows, global gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) reached another month-end high of US$379bn. Meanwhile, holdings surged  115t to 3,561t, the highest since August 2022 and yet still 10% below the month end peak of 3,915t in October 2020.  

Asia led inflows, accounting for 65% of the net global total – their strongest month on record. North American demand was also sizable while European flows flipped negative. Other regions continued to experience positive demand,  albeit only mildly.  

Highlights 

Asia flows surged and North  America also saw robust demand,  while Europe witnessed mild  outflows. The strongest inflow since March  2022 and the continued gold price  surge pushed global gold ETFs’ AUM to US$379bn, 10% higher in  the month. Global gold trading volumes rose  significantly across all markets.

Regional overview 

Asia experienced record breaking inflows during April,  adding US$7.3bn, the strongest ever. The bulk of the  demand came from China marking the third  consecutive month of inflows and the strongest on record for the region. And more impressively, the April inflows have  now surpassed those in Q1 and in full year 2024. In addition  to the continued local gold price surge, demand was also driven by: 

• The ongoing trade dispute with the US, which has raised  fears of weaker growth, amplified equity volatility, and intensified expectations of the local currency depreciation 

• Lower government bond yields, amid rising rate cut  anticipations. 

Global trade risks and the gold price surge also boosted gold  ETF demand in Japan, their seventh consecutive month inflow. India also recorded steadily positive flows, following net outflows last month.  

North American investors continued to buy gold ETFs,  adding US$4.5bn in April. Although flows moderated  compared to February and March, this month marked the  second strongest April on record. And net cumulative flows  through the first four months of the year have already  outpaced 2020’s historical performance.  

April and y-t-d 2025 regional flows* price momentum – albeit less pronounced compared to  March – together with ongoing financial market turmoil amid  trade policy uncertainties led investors in the region to gold.  

Near-term momentum may ebb and flow, but expectations  for continued market volatility – driven by concerns such as  future trade policy and inflation – should provide a level of  support to flows over the medium-to-long term. 

Europe saw modest outflows of US$807mn in April,  reversing course slightly. Outflows for the region were  primarily concentrated in the UK, which were partially offset  by inflows into Switzerland and France.  

Nonetheless, the region witnessed healthy demand during  most of April as the gold price rallied. Lower opportunity  costs, fuelled by another rate cut from the ECB,3 and  intensified expectations of a BoE reduction in early May 4 supported gold ETF buying. But late-month gold price  declines sparked investor selling, likely profit-taking, erasing  earlier gains. Sharp stock market rebounds may have further  reduced gold’s appeal. 

With the local currency strengthening against the dollar, FX hedged products, mainly in Switzerland, saw additional  demand, curbing other outflows.  

Funds in other regions posted their fifth consecutive month  of positive demand (US$213mn) – Australia and South Africa  continued to drive gold ETF inflows in the region. 

Gold trading volumes boom 

Global gold trading volumes across various markets  rocketed in April, averaging US$441bn/day, 48% higher  m/m. Amidst the strong gold price rally, all markets  witnessed significant m/m rises in trading activities. LBMA  OTC turnovers reached US$181bn/day, 31% higher m/m and notably higher than the 2024 average. Exchange-traded  activities jumped by 67% compared to March, with the  COMEX (+42% m/m) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (+122% m/m) leading the charge. Although gold ETF trading  volumes are smaller than other sectors, they saw the  greatest m/m increase of all, surging 120%. 

Total net longs of COMEX gold futures fell 30% m/m to 566t  by the end of April. Net long positions held by money  managers moved lower almost each week, reaching 360t by  the end of the month and 35% below the 2024 average. This  is mainly driven by a sharp decline in total longs – likely due  to profit taking as gold refreshed new records – and a mild  rise in shorts. 

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International News

Hong Kong luxury  jewellery, watches sales slip in May

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In May 2025, Hong Kong witnessed a nuanced retail landscape: while total retail sales rebounded modestly, rising 2.4% year on year to HKD 31.32 billion ($3.99 billion), sales of luxury goods—specifically jewelry, watches, clocks, and other valuable gifts—contracted by 3.2% to HKD 3.87 billion ($493.1 million). This divergence offers critical insights into the shifting dynamics of consumer behavior, external macroeconomic pressures, and sector-specific challenges.

Several interrelated factors contributed to the luxury segment’s decline. First, surging gold prices significantly dampened consumer appetite for jewelry purchases, as higher costs discouraged discretionary spending on big-ticket items. Second, demand for luxury products on the Chinese mainland softened, reducing the influx of high-spending tourists traditionally pivotal to Hong Kong’s retail sector. Lastly, increased outbound tourism encouraged local consumers to shop abroad, further eroding domestic sales.

From January to May 2025, hard-luxury sales dropped by 9% to HKD 20.27 billion ($2.58 billion), while overall retail sales fell 4% to HKD 155.05 billion ($19.75 billion). These figures highlight a broader recalibration within Hong Kong’s retail environment, reflecting evolving consumer preferences and economic headwinds.

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International News

US luxury jewellery spending in May 2025 sees increase of 10.1% y-o-y

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Luxury jewelry spending in May saw a significant increase of 10.1% year-over-year, according to data from Citigroup. This figure stands in stark contrast to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s estimate of only 2.9% for the same period.Citigroup’s analysis is based on the spending habits of over 10 million U.S. credit card holders. In comparison, the Department of Commerce uses its own estimates, later revising them with actual transaction data.

Luxury watch spending also showed a substantial rise, with Citi reporting a 14.7% increase, while the Department of Commerce reported a more modest 2.4% rise.

Overall luxury goods spending, though still weak, showed signs of recovery in May, declining by 1.7% year-over-year. This is an improvement from April’s 6.8% decline and March’s 8.5% decline.

Since September 2024, luxury jewelry has consistently outperformed other luxury segments, including handbags and apparel. In May 2025, jewelry was the only category to experience growth in both average spend per customer and the number of individual customers. This suggests a growing consumer preference for jewelry over other luxury items like handbags.

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International News

Gold upside capped by better-than-expected Employment Report AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Strong US labour market data which indicated that businesses added more jobs than anticipated in June and that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% served as a lid on gold’s gains and strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged.
  • It is anticipated that President Donald Trump’s big package of tax and spending cuts, which was adopted by the House on Thursday, will increase the national debt by nearly $3 trillion over the next ten years.
  • In contrast, Trump announced that he will start writing to nations on Friday, outlining the tariff rates they will be subject to on US imports. This is a significant change from his previous promises to negotiate individual agreements.

Technical Triggers  

  • Gold is expected to trade in the range of $3300 (~Rs 96000) and $3400 (~Rs 98500) this week.
  • Silver has given a breakout of its range, trading above $37 (~ Rs 108,000). Now next target is $38 (~Rs 111,000)

MetalRegionSupport LevelResistance Level
GoldInternational$3250/oz$3440/oz
Indian₹95,000/10 gm₹98,500/10 gm
SilverInternational$35.5/oz$37/oz
Indian₹1,04,500/kg₹1,07,500/kg

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