• Price Movement – Gold slipped below $4150 and Silver edged toward $63, continuing their recent downward trend as mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes overshadowed cautious optimism around active US-Iran peace talks. Sterling is under additional pressure as the UK braces for an imminent change in prime minister. Meanwhile, speculative yen selling is intensifying, steadily testing the Japanese government’s tolerance threshold.
• Geopolitical Event– US has issued Iran a 60-day licence to sell oil on international markets, raising expectations of a faster-than-anticipated recovery in global crude supply. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up, with producers including Kuwait and the UAE actively securing alternative export corridors. Iran alone shipped over 30 million barrels in the past week, signalling a meaningful near-term supply uptick.
• Macro-Economic Event – Market attention this week centres on the upcoming PCE report — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — which is expected to shed fresh light on underlying price pressures. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in an 89% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, a sharp jump from 61% prior to last week’s FOMC meeting.

Technical Triggers  

• With Gold having broken below $4,200, the next key support zone sits at $4,050–$4,100, equivalent to approximately Rs 1,43,000–Rs 1,44,000
• Silver’s breach of the $65 support level shifts focuses to the $60–$61 range, or roughly Rs 2,20,000–Rs 2,15,000 on domestic markets.

Support and Resistance