International News
US Watch and jewelry sales remain steady in March, overall increase of 0.4 percent
US Watch and jewelry sales remained steady in March, with a slight overall increase of 0.4 per cent, according to the latest US Department of Commerce figures. Jewelry sales rose slightly, while
Watch and jewelry sales in the US remained steady in March, with a slight overall increase of 0.4 per cent, according to the latest US Department of Commerce figures. Jewelry sales rose slightly, while watch sales dipped, as consumers opted for higher-priced items, but bought fewer of them.
In February overall sales increased by just 0.2 per cent and in January they fell by 1.0 per cent
The US government’s BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) reported a 0.7 per cent increase in consumer spending in March, the biggest increase for two years, but said it was largely driven by a rush to buy cars before US reciprocal tariffs forced prices up.
Watch and jewelry sales have been characterized by very modest increases in recent months, following on from a year of sustained growth – 10 per cent or more in some months – as shown below.
Reciprocal US tariffs – announced in April, then paused until July – will almost certainly hit sales, as producers forced to either absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers.
International News
WGC Gold Market Commentary-Go With The Flow
September Was Unusual: Despite The Price Decline,Global Gold ETFs Recorded US $10bn (67t) Of Inflows Across Regions. North America Led The Charge, Followed By Europe and Asia.
September review
A surge in US Treasury yields and the US dollar alongside a drop in futures positions helped drive prices lower in September, despite
Yet September was unusual: despite the price decline, global gold ETFs recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions. North America led the charge, followed by Europe and Asia.
Key Takeaways & Market Drivers
1. September Price Retreat
- Price Movement: Gold dropped 8.5% m/m in September to close at $4,176/oz (USD), experiencing broad declines across all major international currencies.
- Primary Drivers: Macro headwinds drove prices lower, specifically a 53 bps surge in US 10-year Treasury yields (to 5.3%) and a 2% gain in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as captured by the Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM).
- Derivatives Liquidation: COMEX net managed money positions shrank by $12bn (84t), while spreading positions fell by $22bn (156t), putting heavy downward pressure on spot prices.
2. Divergence: Physical ETFs vs. Derivatives
- Unusual Contrast: While futures/derivatives positions liquidated sharply, physical demand held firm—global gold ETFs saw strong net inflows of $10bn (67t) in September, led by North America, Europe, and Asia.
3. Stellar European & UK Demand in Q3
- Record Demand: UK-listed gold ETFs recorded 54 tonnes of inflows in Q3 (inflows in 12 of 13 weeks), far exceeding model predictions of 18t (a 36t excess).
- Macro Shift: Historical relationships fail to explain the surge. However, since July, excess UK ETF inflows have strongly correlated (r = 0.51) with rising UK term premia.
- Fiscal Concerns: Investors appear increasingly focused on long-term fiscal sustainability (highlighted by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility’s warnings) and persistent inflation risks rather than transient policy events.
Outlook: What to Watch in October
- Fed & Central Bank Meetings: Markets have lowered expectations for further monetary tightening across the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England.
- Key Signal: If bond yields and term premia remain elevated despite dovish rate expectations, it will signal deeper structural concerns regarding fiscal deficits, which should continue supporting strategic gold demand.
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