International News
US Supreme Court ruling reshapes trade landscape for Indian GJ exports
The US Supreme Court’s landmark ruling (February 2026) has fundamentally reshaped the trade landscape for Indian gems and jewellery exports to the United States. By striking down executive-imposed “reciprocal tariffs” that reached as high as 50%, the Court has provided significant relief to an industry severely impacted by escalating trade tensions.
The replacement of these punitive tariffs with a temporary 10% surcharge, effective February 24, 2026, represents a critical turning point for Indian exporters and the broader bilateral trade relationship.
Pre-Ruling Trade Environment
The Indian gems and jewellery industry, traditionally holding a dominant position in global markets, faced unprecedented challenges following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. These measures, introduced amid broader trade disputes, created substantial barriers to entry in the US market — historically the largest destination for Indian jewellery exports.
Legal Framework of the Ruling
The Supreme Court’s decision appears to be grounded in constitutional considerations, likely challenging the executive branch’s authority to impose tariffs unilaterally or questioning the legal framework under which such measures were enacted.
While detailed legal interpretation remains under analysis, the ruling establishes important precedents for future trade policy implementation and limits executive overreach in tariff actions.
Detailed Impact Analysis
1. Tariff Structure Transformation
Before the Ruling
- Reciprocal tariffs: up to 50%
- Created an effective barrier to competitive pricing
- Resulted in a severe decline in export volumes
After the Ruling (Effective February 24, 2026)
- Temporary surcharge: 10%
- 80% reduction in tariff burden
- Establishes a more sustainable cost structure for exporters
2. Export Recovery Projections
The 74% decline in cut and polished diamond exports during the dispute highlights the severity of the previous tariff regime.
Industry projections indicate:
- Short-term recovery (Q2–Q3 2026): 25–35% increase in export volumes
- Medium-term stabilization (Q4 2026–Q1 2027): Recovery to 70–80% of pre-dispute levels
- Long-term outlook (2027 onwards): Potential market expansion opportunities
3. Competitive Positioning
Market Dynamics
- Level playing field: Indian exporters regain competitiveness against US domestic producers and third-country suppliers
- Improved price competitiveness: A 40-percentage-point tariff reduction enhances pricing flexibility
- Market share recovery: Opportunity to reclaim lost global positioning
Regional Economic Effects
Key Indian production and export hubs expected to benefit include:
- Kolkata — gem processing centre
- Surat — global diamond cutting hub
- Mumbai — manufacturing, trading, and export center
- Jaipur — traditional jewellery and coloured gemstone hub
International News
China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Central Bank Reserves Rise Despite June Price Correction
The PBoC Increased its Gold Reserves by 480,000 fFine Troy Ounces During June, Taking Total Holdings to 75.44 Million Fine Troy Ounces
China continued to strengthen its strategic gold holdings in June, extending its bullion accumulation to a 20th consecutive month even as international gold prices recorded their sharpest monthly decline since 2008. The sustained purchases by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) underscore the country’s long-term reserve diversification strategy amid ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
The PBoC increased its gold reserves by 480,000 fine troy ounces—equivalent to nearly 15 metric tonnes—during June, taking total holdings to 75.44 million fine troy ounces. This represents the central bank’s largest monthly acquisition since October 2023, and highlights continued institutional confidence in gold as a strategic reserve asset despite short-term market volatility.
While physical holdings increased, the market value of China’s gold reserves declined significantly due to falling bullion prices. The value of reserves stood at US$303.72 billion at the end of June, down from US$340.75 billion in May, reflecting the impact of gold’s steep monthly price correction.
Gold prices are currently trading within a consolidation range as investors await fresh guidance from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the future trajectory of monetary policy. Market participants are closely monitoring the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 policy meeting, which are expected to provide greater clarity on interest rate expectations under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
According to Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, recent price action indicates that bullion is establishing a technical support base. He noted that investors are largely positioning themselves ahead of the Fed minutes, which could influence expectations for short-term interest rates and, consequently, the outlook for precious metals.
Investment bank JPMorgan has maintained a measured outlook for gold through the remainder of 2026, citing softer-than-expected demand across key consuming sectors. The bank believes that while gold retains its long-term appeal, near-term upside may remain limited without stronger investment or central bank demand.
JPMorgan projects average gold prices of approximately US$4,300 per ounce in the third quarter, rising modestly to around US$4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter, suggesting a gradual recovery rather than a sustained rally.
Outlook
China’s continued accumulation of gold reserves reinforces the strategic importance central banks continue to place on the precious metal, even during periods of price weakness. With global markets awaiting critical signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve and analysts forecasting a measured recovery in bullion prices, central bank purchases are expected to remain a key pillar supporting the long-term gold market.
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