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US economic downturn and rate cuts support gold rally at record highs- AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Gold posted its longest rally since February on recession fears and rate-cut bets, up nearly 30% this year but still below April’s $3,500 peak.

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  • Gold held its longest streak of gains since February, driven by fears of a US economic downturn that have fuelled haven demand, along with traders’ bets on lower interest rates.
  • With a 90% chance of a cut, traders have placed bets on the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy at its next meeting in September in response to signs of weakness in the largest economy in the world. Bullion that does not pay interest is usually supported by lower interest rates.
  • Gold has climbed nearly 30% this year as investors have sought safety amid heightened trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions and eroding trust in dollar-denominated assets. Still, the precious metal has been range-bound over the previous few months, lacking new catalysts to rocket over its record high of about $3500 an ounce hit in April.

Technical Triggers  

  • Gold has touched its resistance zone of $3440-50 (~Rs 101,350-500), so we might see some profit-booking up to $3390-3400 (~100,000). But if prices sustain above this resistance zone, we might see follow-through buying towards the next psychological level of $3500 (~Rs 103,000).
  • Silver is holding up gains after taking support around $36.5 (~Rs 109,000). Upside momentum could continue towards $38.4(~Rs 114,000), taking clues from gold, while profit booking can drag prices to the support zone.

Support and Resistance

CommoditySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$3390/oz$3500/oz
Indian Gold₹100,000/10 gm₹103,000/10 gm
International Silver$36.5/oz$38.4/oz
Indian Silver₹109,000/kg₹114,000/kg
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International News

Silver retreats Rs 9000/kg from its record high AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Prices of gold and silver fell as the US dollar appreciated and investors profited from the announcement that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement on the first stage of a ceasefire plan.
  • Federal Reserve officials agreed that the dangers to the U.S. labour market were significant enough to justify a rate cut, but they remained cautious due to persistent inflation, according to minutes of the U.S. central bank’s September meeting that were made public on Wednesday.
  • Due to political unrest in France and Japan, as well as the ongoing government shutdown in the United States, markets have struggled this week. As a result, investors have turned to gold for safety.

Technical Triggers 

  • As the gold prices fell more than $100, volatility is very high. If gold futures sustain below yesterday’s low of $3958 (~Rs 120,200), we can say, top has been made, and a correction will follow for at least 4-5%.
  • Silver achieved the target of $50 (~Rs 153,000). And then prices retreated by almost Rs 9000 from their high in volatile momentum. Yesterday’s low of $46.90 (~Rs 145,000) is a very strong support. If Silver futures sustain below this level, we could see more correction or profit booking by at least 4-5%.

Support and Resistance

MetalMarketSupport LevelResistance Level
GoldInternational$3850/oz$4100/oz
GoldIndian₹117,000/10 gm₹124,000/10 gm
SilverInternational$47/oz$50/oz
SilverIndian₹145,000/kg₹150,000/kg

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