International News
US economic downturn and rate cuts support gold rally at record highs- AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold posted its longest rally since February on recession fears and rate-cut bets, up nearly 30% this year but still below April’s $3,500 peak.
- Gold held its longest streak of gains since February, driven by fears of a US economic downturn that have fuelled haven demand, along with traders’ bets on lower interest rates.
- With a 90% chance of a cut, traders have placed bets on the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy at its next meeting in September in response to signs of weakness in the largest economy in the world. Bullion that does not pay interest is usually supported by lower interest rates.
- Gold has climbed nearly 30% this year as investors have sought safety amid heightened trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions and eroding trust in dollar-denominated assets. Still, the precious metal has been range-bound over the previous few months, lacking new catalysts to rocket over its record high of about $3500 an ounce hit in April.
Technical Triggers
- Gold has touched its resistance zone of $3440-50 (~Rs 101,350-500), so we might see some profit-booking up to $3390-3400 (~100,000). But if prices sustain above this resistance zone, we might see follow-through buying towards the next psychological level of $3500 (~Rs 103,000).
- Silver is holding up gains after taking support around $36.5 (~Rs 109,000). Upside momentum could continue towards $38.4(~Rs 114,000), taking clues from gold, while profit booking can drag prices to the support zone.
Support and Resistance
| Commodity | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $3390/oz | $3500/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹100,000/10 gm | ₹103,000/10 gm |
| International Silver | $36.5/oz | $38.4/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹109,000/kg | ₹114,000/kg |
International News
MCX Gold, Silver Rise Despite Global Weakness; US Data, Iran Tensions Keep Bullion Markets On Edge
While Domestic Gold and Silver Prices Edged Higher On MCX, International Spot Gold Slipped Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Negotiations, Inflation Concerns
Gold and silver prices witnessed mixed momentum on May 28, with domestic futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trading marginally higher even as international spot gold prices remained under pressure. The divergence reflects cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, and expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States.
MCX gold futures for June delivery rose modestly by Rs. 215 to Rs. 1,57,898 per 10 grams, while silver futures for July delivery gained Rs. 2,000 to trade at Rs. 2,72,628 per kilogram in early trade. The domestic uptick was supported by weakness in the US dollar and cautious positioning ahead of key macroeconomic developments.
However, global spot gold prices extended losses for a second consecutive session as investors remained wary of the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices and the possibility of prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Analysts noted that fading hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran have revived concerns around oil supply disruptions, higher crude prices, and inflation risks — factors that continue to influence precious metals.
According to market experts, gold has struggled to regain strong upside momentum despite its safe-haven appeal, as rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar have reduced investor appetite for non-yielding assets like bullion. Silver, meanwhile, remained under pressure globally after recent military developments in southern Iran weakened expectations of an immediate resolution to regional tensions.
Investors are now closely watching key US macroeconomic indicators, including ADP employment figures, GDP growth data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. These data points are expected to offer fresh direction on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, which remains a crucial driver for gold and silver prices.
With geopolitical risks still elevated and inflation concerns persisting, bullion markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term as traders await clearer signals on both diplomacy and monetary policy.
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