International News
Trump tariffs and its impact on bullion industry
As of March 25, 2025, the United States, under President Donald Trump, has implemented various tariffs on multiple countries, leading to reciprocal measures from affected nations. Below is a summary of these actions
U.S. Enacted Tariffs:
- Steel and Aluminum Products: A 25% tariff was announced on February 10, 2025, and became effective on March 12, 2025.
- Canadian Goods: A 25% tariff was announced on February 1, 2025, and took effect on March 4, 2025. However, on March 6, tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods were delayed until April 2. Additionally, the tariff on potash was reduced to 10%.
- Canadian Oil and Gas: A 10% tariff was announced on February 1, 2025, with implementation delayed until April 2.
- Chinese Goods: An initial 10% tariff was announced on February 1, 2025, effective February 4, 2025. This rate increased to 20% on March 4,2025.
- Mexican Goods: A 25% tax was announced on February 1, 2025, and took effect on March 4, 2025. Tariffs on USMCA-compliant items were pushed back to April 2.
Proposed U.S. Tariffs:
- Reciprocal Tariffs: Announced on February 13, 2025, with implementation expected to begin on April 2.
- European Union Goods: On February 2, 2025, President Trump stated that taxes on European Union goods will be implemented pretty soon
- On March 13, he threatened a 200 percent levy on EU alcohol.
- Digital Service Taxes (DSTs): On February 21, 2025, President Trump directed the U.S. Trade Representative to initiate a Section 302 investigation into DSTs, particularly targeting France, Austria, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK.
- Copper Imports: On February 25, 2025, the Commerce Secretary was directed to initiate a Section 232 investigation into copper imports.
- Timber and Lumber Imports: On March 1, 2025, the Commerce Secretary was directed to initiate a Section 232 investigation into timber and lumber imports.
Foreign Retaliatory Measures:
- Canada: Implemented a 25% tariff on certain U.S. goods effective March 4, 2025. On March 13, 2025, Canada expanded tariffs to include 25% on steel products, aluminium products, and miscellaneous goods.
- China: Imposed a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on oil and agricultural machinery, effective February 4, 2025. On March 10, 2025, China expanded tariffs to 10-15% on U.S. meat and agricultural products, suspended U.S. lumber imports, and revoked soybean import licenses for three U.S. firms.
- European Union: Announced planned tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods, delayed from April 1, and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products, expected to take effect in mid-April.
Impact of US Tariffs on Bullion Industry
These measures have escalated global trade tensions, leading to increased economic uncertainty and potential impacts on the bullion Industry. TheTrump administration tariffs have significantly impacted the global bullion industry, particularly in terms of supply chains, pricing, and investor sentiment. Here are some key effects:
- Increased Gold and Silver Import Costs – If Trump imposes tariffs on gold imports, especially from the UK (via Bank of England reserves),
- premiums in India and other markets may rise due to supply disruptions. Any tariffs on silver imports could push up costs for industrial users
- and jewellery manufacturers.
- Market Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand – Trade war fears and economic uncertainty have historically driven safe-haven demand for gold.
- Investors have increased their bullion holdings as a hedge against currency fluctuations and geopolitical risks.
- Impact on Refining and Trade – Tariffs on dore imports could make refining costlier in major processing hubs like India and Switzerland. If China imposes retaliatory tariffs, it could disrupt gold flow and shift refining operations elsewhere.
- Effect on Bullion Prices and Premiums – Tariffs have distorted pricing, leading to higher premiums in key consuming markets like India and China. Increased import costs have widened the gap between domestic and international gold prices.
- Influence on Central Bank Gold Reserves – If tariffs impact gold trade routes, central banks might adjust their reserve strategies, possibly leading to increased domestic purchases.
International News
Precious Metals Under Pressure Amid Ceasefire Collapse and Dollar Strength AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Increased Inflation Risks, Further Central Bank Interest Rate Increases — Both Of Negative Factors For Precious Metals
Gold and silver prices weakened at the start of the week as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which markets had welcomed, began to unravel. The U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to break through its blockade, prompting Iran to threaten retaliation. This raised serious doubts about whether the two-day ceasefire could hold at all.
Specifically, President Trump confirmed that the U.S. Navy intercepted an Iranian-flagged vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored stop orders near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, targeted ships in the region and reasserted control over the Strait, arguing the U.S. blockade violated ceasefire terms. While Trump signaled room for diplomatic progress ahead of talks in Pakistan, Iran ruled out participating in a second negotiation round before the Tuesday deadline.
The extended conflict has disrupted energy supply significantly, increasing inflation risks and raising expectations of further central bank interest rate increases — both of which are negative factors for precious metals.
The U.S. dollar strengthened to a one-week high against major currencies on Monday, though gains faded as U.S.-Iran tensions resurfaced and Middle East peace prospects dimmed, prompting investors to seek safer assets.
On monetary policy, market expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut by year-end dropped sharply to 21%, from 40% just weeks earlier. This shift followed stronger-than-expected inflation data and a resilient labor market, pushing 10-year Treasury yields past 4.5%. The Fed kept rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, with virtually no probability of a cut in April.
The Indian rupee stabilised near 93 per dollar after briefly touching a three-week low. The Reserve Bank of India intervened by directing lenders to reduce large arbitrage positions in onshore and offshore markets, which lowered dollar demand and helped stabilise the currency.
Global gold ETFs attracted 21 tonnes of net inflows in the first few days of April alone — a level the World Gold Council described as broad-based and regionally diverse. Notably, these inflows occurred during a stable market environment, not a crisis, indicating a deliberate shift toward physical gold-backed funds at the portfolio level.
Chinese gold ETFs attracted $8.1 billion year-to-date in net inflows, a stark contrast to over $2.0 billion in outflows from U.S. gold ETFs over the same period. Indian gold ETFs also drew continued interest, supported by seasonal buying ahead of Akshaya Tritiya.
Central bank gold buying remained strong in Q1 2026, with emerging market nations — primarily China and India — collectively adding over 200 tonnes year-to-date, according to World Gold Council estimates. Previously inactive buyers such as Malaysia and South Korea resumed gold reserve accumulation, signaling broader institutional confidence in gold. However, the Bank of Russia was an outlier, recording 9 tonnes in sales during January.
China’s silver imports reached 206.76 tonnes in the first two months of 2026 — the highest in eight years — tightening global supply and supporting prices. The Silver Institute and Metals Focus have flagged a sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from existing stockpiles since 2021, increasing the risk of a physical supply squeeze.
However, industrial demand for silver in 2026 is forecast to decline 3% to 640 million ounces, partly offsetting supply concerns. Additionally, India’s temporary halt on silver imports raised concerns about near-term domestic supply disruptions.
Gold continues to face resistance at $4,850 (~Rs. 1,55,000). A sustained move above this level could push prices toward $5,000 (~Rs. 1,60,000). Key support remains at $4,600 (~Rs. 1,51,000).
Silver has met its prior target of $82 (~Rs. 2,58,000). Prices are expected to consolidate in the near term before advancing toward $84 (~Rs. 2,65,000) and subsequently $90 (~Rs. 2,80,000).Â
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