International News
Treasury yield declines on heightened rate cut expectations AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- 10-year US Treasury yields have decreased 3.5% during the past four days, coming back to 4.00% level, amid heightened rate cut expectations. US macro data revealed indications of declining inflation and increased the Federal Reserve’s leeway to further lower interest rates. Consequently, this situation helps the precious metals to trade higher and push the US dollar to a one-week low.
- The likelihood that the Fed would lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at the December meeting has risen to 85.3% from 50.1% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
- Furthermore, a persistent increase in the price of the precious metal is limited by expectations of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, given that investors are now looking to more US data for some encouragement, the fundamental background indicates that the path of least resistance for gold is to the upward.
US Technical Triggers
- Gold has been trading in the range of $4000 (~Rs 121,000) and $4200 (~Rs 127,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.
- Silver has been trading in the range of $49 (~Rs 150,000) to $53 (~Rs 160,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.
Support and Resistance
| Commodity | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $4000/oz | $4200/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹121,000 / 10 gm | ₹127,000 / 10 gm |
| International Silver | $49/oz | $53/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹150,000 / kg | ₹160,000 / kg |
International News
Precious Metals Surge On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Geopolitical Optimism and Macro Shifts Drive Bullish Momentum
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
- Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.
Technical Triggers
- If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
- As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $70/oz : $82/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 257,000/kg |
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