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Treasury yield declines on heightened rate cut expectations AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • 10-year US Treasury yields have decreased 3.5% during the past four days, coming back to 4.00% level, amid heightened rate cut expectations. US macro data revealed indications of declining inflation and increased the Federal Reserve’s leeway to further lower interest rates. Consequently, this situation helps the precious metals to trade higher and push the US dollar to a one-week low.
  • The likelihood that the Fed would lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at the December meeting has risen to 85.3% from 50.1% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
  • Furthermore, a persistent increase in the price of the precious metal is limited by expectations of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, given that investors are now looking to more US data for some encouragement, the fundamental background indicates that the path of least resistance for gold is to the upward.

US Technical Triggers         

  • Gold has been trading in the range of $4000 (~Rs 121,000) and $4200 (~Rs 127,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.
  • Silver has been trading in the range of $49 (~Rs 150,000) to $53 (~Rs 160,000). Buy on dips around support and sell on rallies around resistance.

Support and Resistance

CommoditySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$4000/oz$4200/oz
Indian Gold₹121,000 / 10 gm₹127,000 / 10 gm
International Silver$49/oz$53/oz
Indian Silver₹150,000 / kg₹160,000 / kg

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International News

MCX Gold Higher On Ceasefire Hopes, Crude Oil Price Dip

Globally, A Softer US Dollar and Sliding Energy Prices Provided A Strong Tailwind For Precious Metals

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Renewed expectations of a diplomatic resolution to Middle Eastern conflicts sent ripples through the commodities market on June 3. On the MCX, June gold futures rose 0.26% to Rs. 1,58,930 per 10 grams, while July silver futures saw a modest 0.07% bump to Rs. 2,63,150 per kg. Conversely, physical retail gold saw a marginal dip, with 24K gold landing at Rs. 1,56,110 per 10 grams in Mumbai and Kolkata, Rs. 1,56,260 in Delhi, and Rs. 1,57,970 in Chennai.

Globally, a softer US dollar and sliding energy prices provided a strong tailwind for precious metals on Thursday. Spot gold advanced 0.4% to $4,450.16 per ounce, while August futures settled at $4,477. In contrast, crude benchmarks trended downward as geopolitical risks premium eased; Brent crude fell 0.85% to $96.87 a barrel, and WTI dropped 0.95% to $95.11. Other precious metals also closed in positive territory, with spot silver, platinum, and palladium gaining 0.8%, 0.2%, and 0.5% respectively.

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