Bullion had one of its strongest weeks of the year. Spot gold climbed roughly 6.6% to settle near $4,350/oz, with COMEX December futures touching an intraday high above $4,410 before easing into the close. Silver outperformed on a percentage basis, with spot prices vaulting from the high-$50s to an intraday peak of $65.05/oz, a gain of nearly 7%.

The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said, compared with economists’ expectations for an increase of 80,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% even as the labor participation rate dropped to a near five-and-a-half-year low of 61.4%. Few expected non-farm payrolls to turn negative, or that June’s numbers would see such a steep downward revision.

The market has likely pushed the expected Fed hike from September to October or December, Wizman said, noting that weak labor data tends to delay rate-hike expectations rather than accelerate them. ADP’s weekly employment data had already pointed to a hiring slowdown earlier in the week, setting up the payrolls shock. With CPI, PPI, and University of Michigan inflation expectations due shortly, markets remain highly sensitive to incoming data, and positioning into next week is expected to stay volatile. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in 44% odds of a rate hike at the September meeting, down from 55% before the data.

Safe-haven flows got extra support from unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggested Iran and Oman were negotiating an arrangement to ease shipping disruptions, though no final agreement was confirmed, and crude oil pulled back from recent highs on partial de-escalation optimism. Without a durable resolution, a geopolitical risk premium stayed embedded in both gold and silver through the week, while a coordinated US-Japan currency intervention to steady the yen added another layer of cross-asset volatility that spilled into precious metals positioning.

Domestic sentiment stayed constructive heading into the festive and wedding season window that opens in August. Feedback from recent trade events pointed to improved restocking by jewellers, though record rupee prices continue to push consumers toward lighter-weight, lower-carat pieces and value-conscious purchases. Investment demand through coins, bars, and gold ETFs continued to outpace jewellery offtake, in line with the broader shift in Indian consumer behavior toward gold as a financial-security instrument rather than a purely occasion-led purchase.

With US CPI, PPI, jobless claims, and Michigan sentiment data on the calendar, volatility is likely to stay elevated. Gold holding above the $4,200–4,350 zone will be key to sustaining the advance toward record territory, while silver’s move above $63 keeps the door open for a retest of the January highs if the dollar stays under pressure.

Gold and silver appear to have formed a base and broken out after a month-long consolidation, so a 4–5% upside move looks likely this week. On MCX, Rs 1,40,000 is the immediate support band for gold, with silver support near Rs 2,15,000–2,20,000. A confirmed Fed dovish pivot, alongside any durable Strait of Hormuz resolution, will be the swing factors for direction into the following week.