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US private sector layoffs rise to a two-decade high AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

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  • Gold and silver prices are attempting to establish a base before the next upleg rise, following confirmation of supporting factors, including massive layoffs and the US government shutdown.
  • In October, US challenger job losses tripled, marking the biggest increase in more than 20 years, as businesses cited a decline in customer demand. October saw 153,074 job cutbacks, up 183% from September and 175% from the same month the previous year. It has been the worst year for layoffs since 2009 and the worst amount for any October since 2003.
  • A total of 1.1 million layoffs have been declared by companies this year, which is the most since the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020 and a 65% increase from the previous year. The greatest number for a fourth-quarter month since 2008 was recorded in October.
  • As the U.S. government enters its longest-ever shutdown, investors will be watching for any economic data from private sources while official data remains missing.

Technical Triggers 

  • Gold prices are expected to consolidate in the range of $3900 (~Rs 117,500) to $4060 (~ Rs 122,500) for the next few days, so buy on dips and sell on rallies.
  • Silver prices are expected to consolidate in the range of 45.5(~Rs 140,000) and $49 (~Rs 150,000) for the next few days, so buy on dips and sell on rallies.

Support and Resistance

CategorySupport LevelResistance Level
International Gold$3900/oz$4060/oz
Indian Gold₹117,500/10 gm₹122,500/10 gm
International Silver$45.5/oz$49/oz
Indian Silver₹140,000/kg₹150,000/kg
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International News

Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector

Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments

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Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.

We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:

  • Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
  • Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
  • Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
  • Energy Sector Headwinds

Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:

  • Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.

Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation

The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.

  • US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
  • Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.

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