International News
Soft US CPI data fuels rate cut bets AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold hovered near $3,400 as July CPI data boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut, easing tariff-driven inflation fears. However, market sentiment was jolted by US Customs imposing duties on large gold bars despite Trump’s no-tax assurance.
- As investors considered the Federal Reserve’s rate forecast in light of the most recent CPI data, gold prices were circling $3400. Core inflation increased from 2.9% to 3.1% in July, while headline inflation was 2.7%, below the 2.8% prediction.
- Gold’s attractiveness increased as the data allayed worries about tariff-driven inflation and supported anticipations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September.
- Furthermore, despite President Trump’s declaration that there would be no tax, Customs and Border Protection shocked markets last week by placing 100-ounce and 1-kilogram gold bars under a customs code that imposes duties.
Technical Triggers
- After achieving the target of $3500 (~Rs 102,000), gold prices have retraced below $3400(~Rs 100,200) level. Prices are expected to consolidate for a while with a bearish bias towards $3350 (~Rs 98500)
- After achieving the target of $38.5 (~Rs 115,000), Silver prices have retraced to $37.5 (~Rs 113,000). Next support is $37(~Rs 111,000), while upside prices are expected to touch $39 (~Rs 115,000) again, if positive momentum continues.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $3,350/oz | $3,480/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹98,500/10 gm | ₹1,01,000/10 gm |
| International Silver | $37.5/oz | $39/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹1,12,000/kg | ₹1,14,500/kg |
US spot Gold prices climbed above $4,250 early Monday, touching a six-week high as investors turned cautious ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI release. The yellow metal is poised for further upside momentum if it secures a sustained daily close above the crucial $4,250 resistance level.
The US Dollar opened December on a softer note, pressured by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may announce a rate cut next week. Growing market confidence in easing monetary conditions has boosted the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
Analysts note that a decisive break and close above $4,250 could reinforce bullish sentiment and pave the way for an extended rally in the days ahead. As global markets await fresh cues from the US economic calendar, gold continues to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic backdrop and robust safe-haven demand.
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