National News
Silver sees Rs 10,000 single day surge on supply crunch, US rate cut hopes, weaker $
Silver prices experienced a dramatic single-day surge of RS10,000 on Monday, reaching Rs1.74 lakh per kg. This rally is part of a larger trend that has seen silver prices double in the last 12 months (outperforming gold’s 60% gain).
The price acceleration is primarily attributed to a persistent global supply deficit, increased investment demand, and macroeconomic factors like a weaker US Dollar and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Experts predict the supply shortage will continue, providing significant headroom for further price appreciation into 2026.
The spike to Rs1.74 lakh per kg 1.64 lakh per kg was driven by four interconnected factors:
- Supply Squeeze: The most critical driver is the ongoing global silver supply shortage. The total silver production stands at approximately 26,000 tonnes, while the deficit this year is estimated between 6,000 and 7,500 tonnes, one of the largest in recent decades. Global demand has been consistently outstripping supply since 2020, as most silver is mined as a by-product of other metals (gold, lead, zinc), limiting its independent supply growth.
- US Rate Cut Expectations: Rising anticipation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, likely due to a projected economic slowdown continuing into 2026, is attracting investors back to non-yielding assets like silver and gold.
- Softer US Dollar: A globally weaker US Dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities, including silver, cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus boosting demand.
- Rupee Weakness: The recent weakness of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar further contributes to the higher price of imported silver in the domestic market.
Investment demand for silver reached a projected 1,751 tonnes in calendar year 2025, reflecting a sharp 350-tonne increase from 2024 levels, as reported by Metals Focus. This surge stemmed from persistent market deficits—marking the seventh consecutive year—with cumulative shortfalls nearing 25,000 tonnes since 2021, fueled by structural supply constraints and accelerating industrial needs. Retail and institutional interest, particularly in Asia and North America, drove inflows into silver-backed ETPs, coins, and bars, amplifying the demand spike amid economic uncertainty.
National News
Gold Industry Proposes New Strategy To Cut Imports and Boost Local Economy
Precious Metals Refineries Forum (PMRF) Has Proposed A Two-Track System To Manage Gold More Efficiently
Following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call to reduce gold imports and foreign travel, major Indian bullion and jewellery bodies have submitted a new plan to the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The strategy aims to lower the nation’s trade deficit by tapping into the estimated 30,000 tonnes of gold sitting in Indian households.
This move comes after India’s gold imports jumped 24% to a record $71.9 billion in the 2025-26 financial year, with over 721 tonnes of gold brought into the country.
The New Strategy: Two Separate Systems
The Precious Metals Refineries Forum (PMRF) has proposed a two-track system to manage gold more efficiently:
- For Exporters: Imported gold should be strictly saved for jewellery exporters using one-year Gold Metal Loans (GML).
- For Local Buyers: Domestic demand should be met entirely by recycling household gold. This gold would be collected from citizens, refined locally, and sold back through jewellers and retailers.
Under this plan, people who deposit their idle gold could earn 2% to 2.5% interest, while businesses taking gold loans would pay an interest rate of 3% to 4%.
Fixing Why Past Schemes Failed
Previous government gold schemes failed to gain traction primarily because they left out local jewellers and lacked a proper banking structure. Without a joined-up system, institutions faced high financial risks from changing gold prices.
To fix this, trade bodies are calling for a complete system that includes:
- Direct involvement of trusted local jewellers. The schemes did not take off in the past because jewellers were not part of them. About 10% to 20% of family gold is held as bars or coins.
- Strong bank backing and secure storage vaults across the country.
- Tax incentives, such as removing the 3% GST loss when physical gold is converted into Electronic Gold Receipts (EGR), and offering income tax relief on the interest earned.
Industry Support
Industry experts say a smooth system is already possible. Collection and purity testing centres have confirmed that collected household gold can be processed within 48 hours and safely moved to secure, bank-approved vaults.
Representatives from the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) recently held discussions with RBI officials to fast-track these changes.
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