Silver prices experienced a dramatic single-day surge of RS10,000 on Monday, reaching Rs1.74 lakh per kg. This rally is part of a larger trend that has seen silver prices double in the last 12 months (outperforming gold’s 60% gain).

The price acceleration is primarily attributed to a persistent global supply deficit, increased investment demand, and macroeconomic factors like a weaker US Dollar and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Experts predict the supply shortage will continue, providing significant headroom for further price appreciation into 2026.

The spike to Rs1.74 lakh per kg 1.64 lakh per kg  was driven by four interconnected factors:

• Supply Squeeze: The most critical driver is the ongoing global silver supply shortage. The total silver production stands at approximately 26,000 tonnes, while the deficit this year is estimated between 6,000 and 7,500 tonnes, one of the largest in recent decades. Global demand has been consistently outstripping supply since 2020, as most silver is mined as a by-product of other metals (gold, lead, zinc), limiting its independent supply growth.
• US Rate Cut Expectations: Rising anticipation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, likely due to a projected economic slowdown continuing into 2026, is attracting investors back to non-yielding assets like silver and gold.
• Softer US Dollar: A globally weaker US Dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities, including silver, cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus boosting demand.
• Rupee Weakness: The recent weakness of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar further contributes to the higher price of imported silver in the domestic market.

Investment demand for silver reached a projected 1,751 tonnes in calendar year 2025, reflecting a sharp 350-tonne increase from 2024 levels, as reported by Metals Focus. This surge stemmed from persistent market deficits—marking the seventh consecutive year—with cumulative shortfalls nearing 25,000 tonnes since 2021, fueled by structural supply constraints and accelerating industrial needs. Retail and institutional interest, particularly in Asia and North America, drove inflows into silver-backed ETPs, coins, and bars, amplifying the demand spike amid economic uncertainty.