International News
Precious Metals Under Pressure As Middle East Escalation Fuels Inflation and Rate Concerns AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Stabilized Near $4,500 After A Near 2% Decline, Weighed Down By Escalating Middle East Tensions That Have Pushed Energy Prices Sharply Higher
- Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold stabilised near $4,500 after a near 2% decline, weighed down by escalating Middle East tensions that have pushed energy prices sharply higher and stoked inflation fears. The resulting inflationary pressure has reinforced market expectations that central banks will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.
- Geopolitical Developments – US forces successfully defended against Iranian attacks while escorting two American-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and attributed a significant fire at its Fujairah port to an Iranian drone strike. These incidents followed President Trump’s directive to restore safe passage through Hormuz and assist stranded vessels, though shipowners remain cautious given the heightened security environment.
- Macro-economic Signals – The renewed escalation has undermined confidence in the four-week ceasefire, triggering a surge in oil prices and global bond yields on expectations of tighter monetary policy ahead. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates the Fed will hold rates steady through 2026, while markets have begun pricing rate hikes for 2027 — the probability of a January 2027 increase has jumped to 22% from near zero just one week prior.
Technical Triggers
- Gold is expected to trade in the range of $4500-$4850 (~ Rs 148,000 -155,000).
- Silver is expected to trade in the range of $71-$80 (~ Rs 235,000 -255,000).
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4450/oz : $4850/oz : Rs 145,000/10 gm : Rs 155,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $68/oz : $77/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 255,000/kg |
International News
Safe-Haven Rally Amid US–Iran Diplomacy and Pre-NFP Caution AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
Gold Continues Its Upside Momentum With Next Target Resistance At $4,800–4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000)
Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver have resumed their upward trend, supported by optimism around a potential US–Iran peace deal that is weakening the safe-haven appeal of the USD. Despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, investor sentiment leans toward diplomatic resolution. This has pushed Crude Oil prices lower, reducing inflationary pressure and lowering expectations of a more aggressive Fed stance.
Geopolitical Developments – Iran has accused the US of breaching the ceasefire through strikes near the Strait. The Trump administration is awaiting Tehran’s formal response to a proposal aimed at reopening Hormuz and resolving the roughly ten-week conflict. Reports suggest Iran will relay its position via Pakistan within two days.
Macro-economic Signals Markets are focused on today’s NFP print, forecast at 62K — a sharp pullback from March’s stronger-than-expected 178K. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth is expected to tick up to 3.8% from 3.5%, keeping wage inflation in focus.
Technical Triggers
- Gold continues its upside momentum with next target resistance at $4,800–4,850 (~Rs.1,55,000).
- Silver has met the $80 (~Rs. 2,60,000) and $82 (~Rs. 2,65,000) upside target. Prices are expected to consolidate here for a while before moving higher towards $85 (~Rs. 2,70,000)
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4500/oz : $4850/oz : Rs. 148,000/10 gm : Rs. 155,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $73/oz : $85/oz : Rs. 240,000/kg : Rs. 270,000/kg |
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