International News
Precious Metals steady amid strong US data AUGMONT BULLION REPORT
- As investors continued to reduce their bets on US rate cuts, gold prices hovered around a four-week low, staying around $4000.
- While the ISM Services PMI reached an eight-month high, US private ADP payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, above projections of a 25,000 increase. Given that inflation is currently higher than expected and that important labor data is being delayed by the government shutdown, the numbers confirmed forecasts that there is little opportunity for further rate decreases.
- The longest U.S. government closure in history is the result of a congressional impasse, forcing markets and the data-dependent Fed to rely on private sector statistics.
- A number of Fed officials have been speaking in a hawkish manner lately, which is consistent with Chair Powell’s recent comments that the most recent rate cut may be the final one for the year.
Technical Triggers
- Gold prices are expected to consolidate in the range of $3900 (~Rs 117,500) to $4060 (~ Rs 122,500) for the next few days, so buy on dips and sell on rallies.
- Silver prices are expected to consolidate in the range of 45.5(~Rs 140,000) and $49 (~Rs 150,000) for the next few days, so buy on dips and sell on rallies.
Support and Resistance
| Category | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|
| International Gold | $3,900/oz | $4,060/oz |
| Indian Gold | ₹117,500 / 10 gm | ₹122,500 / 10 gm |
| International Silver | $45.5/oz | $49/oz |
| Indian Silver | ₹140,000 / kg | ₹150,000 / kg |
International News
Significant Upside Trajectory In The Metals Sector
Precious Metals Surge on Geopolitical Optimism as Gold and Silver Rally, While Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Amid Ongoing US–Iran Developments
Gold rates and silver rates in India will be driven by global trends, as the Indian market is closed. Trading in commodities, including gold and silver, will be closed for half a day on April 14 at MCX.
We are seeing a significant upside trajectory in the metals sector, driven by recent geopolitical synergies:
- Gold Asset Class: Spot prices have achieved a value-add recovery, scaling past the $4,760/oz threshold.
- Silver Asset Class: Currently experiencing a high-growth phase, surging approximately 2% to reach a target density near $77/oz.
- Market Bandwidth: While the MCX interface is currently undergoing a scheduled half-day service window on April 14,
- Energy Sector Headwinds
Conversely, the energy vertical is facing downward scalability issues:
- Crude Oil Index: Both US WTI and Brent Crude are failing to gain leverage, currently underperforming by 2% and hovering around the $98/bbl mark.
Geopolitical Synergy & Risk Mitigation
The recent bullish momentum in precious metals is a direct byproduct of strategic bilateral engagement between the US and Iran. Key stakeholders are currently deep-diving into negotiations to extend the current truce framework.
- US Perspective: President Trump has acknowledged a proactive outreach from Tehran following the implementation of a naval blockade.
- Iranian Alignment: President Pezeshkian has signaled readiness to move the needle on peace discussions, provided all deliverables remain within the compliance framework of international regulations.
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