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Precious Metals Slide As U.S.-Iran Conflict Drags On

Gold Drops 1.4% to $4,462 An Ounce, Silver Falls 2%, Amid Fears Of Central-Bank Selling and Fed Rate Hikes

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Precious metals tumbled Monday as the U.S. – Iran war stretched into its fifth week, fueling concerns over inflation, higher interest rates and potential sales from central banks. Spot gold fell 1.38% to $4,462 a troy ounce after surging 2.7% in the prior session. Silver slid 2% to $68.30 an ounce in Asian hours.

The selloff caps a 15% decline in gold since hostilities erupted, with bullion moving in tandem with equities and against surging oil prices. Escalating energy costs have stoked worries that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy to combat inflation—a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.

Media reports opportunistic buyers nibbling at the dip after gold’s sharpest selloff in years. Yet persistent conflict risks loom large: Tehran faced power blackouts from missile strikes over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthis escalated involvement, and the U.S. bolstered regional troop deployments. Iran also hit aluminum smelters in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

 Turkey’s central bank, meanwhile, offloaded and swapped some 60 tons of gold—worth over $8 billion—in the conflict’s first two weeks, challenging the narrative of unwavering central-bank accumulation.

For traders, the gold-silver ratio’s leap to 65 signals a potential pivot to gold over silver. Watch Fed signals, oil trajectories and de-escalation news. Support looms at $4,200; resistance near $4,500. Volatility suits options plays or hedges via ETFs like GLD or SLV.

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International News

Precious Metals Surge On Ceasefire Optimism AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Geopolitical Optimism and Macro Shifts Drive Bullish Momentum

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Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.

  • Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
  • Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.

Technical Triggers

  • If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
  • As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.

Support and Resistance

International Gold Support Level
International Gold Resistance Level
Domestic Gold Support Level
Domestic Gold Resistance Level
: $4600/oz
: $5000/oz 
: Rs 153,000/10 gm
: Rs 160,000/10 gm
International Silver Support Level
International Silver Resistance Level 
Domestic Silver Support Level
Domestic Silver Resistance Level
: $70/oz
: $82/oz  
: Rs 225,000/kg
: Rs 257,000/kg
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