International News
Precious Metals hit fresh record highs as geopolitical risks and Fed concerns intensify
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- Gold and silver surged to new all-time highs, with gold crossing $4,600 and silver moving past $86, as investors rushed toward safe-haven assets. The rally was driven by rising concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, escalating geopolitical tensions, and renewed trade-related uncertainty.
- Market sentiment was rattled after U.S. federal prosecutors reportedly threatened action against Fed Chair Jerome Powell over comments made to Congress regarding a building renovation project. Powell has described the move as a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates, raising serious concerns about policy independence.
- Geopolitical risks continue to mount, with the U.S. stepping up its involvement in Venezuela, President Donald Trump warning of possible military action amid unrest in Iran, ongoing conflict in Ukraine, tensions between China and Japan, and renewed insistence by the White House on acquiring Greenland. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump warned that any country doing business with Iran could face a 25% tariff on all U.S. trade.
- U.S. officials also confirmed that President Trump will be briefed on Tuesday on potential responses to Iran, including sanctions, cyber measures, and military options—keeping global risk sentiment fragile and supportive for precious metals.
Technical Triggers
- Gold has decisively broken above its earlier resistance at $4,570, opening the door to higher levels. The next key targets are $4,745–4,750 (78.6% Fibonacci extension, ~Rs. 1,46,000) and $4,966–4,970 (100% Fibonacci extension, ~Rs.1,52,500).
- Silver’s rally also looks set to extend further. Fibonacci projections point toward $88 (~Rs.2,78,000) and $93 (~Rs.2,93,000) in the coming weeks, while $70 remains a strong support zone.
Support and Resistance
| Metal | Market | Support Level | Resistance Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | International | $4,300 / oz | $4,750 / oz |
| Gold | Indian | ₹1,34,000 / 10 gm | ₹1,46,000 / 10 gm |
| Silver | International | $70 / oz | $88 / oz |
| Silver | Indian | ₹2,25,000 / kg | ₹2,78,000 / kg |
Source:Augmont Bullion Report
International News
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Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold is expected to gain 1% and Silver 4% this week, marking a fourth straight weekly increase. This rise is driven by improving prospects of a permanent US-Iran ceasefire, which has reduced inflation concerns and lowered expectations of further central bank rate hikes.
- Geopolitical Developments– President Trump stated that Iran has agreed to key conditions: abandoning its nuclear weapons program, providing “free oil,” and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Iranian officials have not yet confirmed these terms. Separately, Israel’s cabinet convened on Wednesday to evaluate a potential ceasefire in Lebanon, over six weeks into its ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
- Macro-economic Signals – Oil prices have dropped sharply on optimism surrounding a possible Iran deal, easing inflationary pressure, and reducing rate hike expectations. US traders currently assign a 29% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut this year – a significant downward revision from earlier forecasts of two cuts before the conflict began.
Technical Triggers
- If Gold sustains above $4,850 (~ Rs. 1,55,000), the next upside resistance would be $5,000 (~ Rs. 1,60,000).
- As suggested earlier, Silver has given a breakout above $76.50 (~ Rs. 2,44,000), the next resistance would be $82 (~ Rs. 2,57,000) and $87 (~ Rs. 2,65,000) on continued strength.
Support and Resistance
| International Gold Support Level International Gold Resistance Level Domestic Gold Support Level Domestic Gold Resistance Level | : $4600/oz : $5000/oz : Rs 153,000/10 gm : Rs 160,000/10 gm |
| International Silver Support Level International Silver Resistance Level Domestic Silver Support Level Domestic Silver Resistance Level | : $70/oz : $82/oz : Rs 225,000/kg : Rs 257,000/kg |
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