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Precious Metals hit fresh record highs as geopolitical risks and Fed concerns intensify

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  • Gold and silver surged to new all-time highs, with gold crossing $4,600 and silver moving past $86, as investors rushed toward safe-haven assets. The rally was driven by rising concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, escalating geopolitical tensions, and renewed trade-related uncertainty.
  • Market sentiment was rattled after U.S. federal prosecutors reportedly threatened action against Fed Chair Jerome Powell over comments made to Congress regarding a building renovation project. Powell has described the move as a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates, raising serious concerns about policy independence.
  • Geopolitical risks continue to mount, with the U.S. stepping up its involvement in Venezuela, President Donald Trump warning of possible military action amid unrest in Iran, ongoing conflict in Ukraine, tensions between China and Japan, and renewed insistence by the White House on acquiring Greenland. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump warned that any country doing business with Iran could face a 25% tariff on all U.S. trade.
  • U.S. officials also confirmed that President Trump will be briefed on Tuesday on potential responses to Iran, including sanctions, cyber measures, and military options—keeping global risk sentiment fragile and supportive for precious metals.

Technical Triggers      

  • Gold has decisively broken above its earlier resistance at $4,570, opening the door to higher levels. The next key targets are $4,745–4,750 (78.6% Fibonacci extension, ~Rs. 1,46,000) and $4,966–4,970 (100% Fibonacci extension, ~Rs.1,52,500).
  • Silver’s rally also looks set to extend further. Fibonacci projections point toward $88 (~Rs.2,78,000) and $93 (~Rs.2,93,000) in the coming weeks, while $70 remains a strong support zone.

Support and Resistance

MetalMarketSupport LevelResistance Level
GoldInternational$4,300 / oz$4,750 / oz
GoldIndian₹1,34,000 / 10 gm₹1,46,000 / 10 gm
SilverInternational$70 / oz$88 / oz
SilverIndian₹2,25,000 / kg₹2,78,000 / kg

Source:Augmont Bullion Report

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International News

Precious Metals Bounce Back As Iran Ceasefire Hopes Rise, But Fed Rate Fears Loom: AUGMONT BULLION REPORT

Gold Remains Under Short-term Pressure from Expectations of Fed Tightening and a Strong Dollar. However, Investor Positioning in Gold Looks Relatively Light After Months of ETF Outflows.

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Price MovementGold has bounced back from its key support levels near $3960, and Silver has recovered from $55, after an Iranian official reportedly received a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire. The continuing US-Iran standoff has kept investors worried about energy-driven inflation and the possibility of further rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a US rate hike in December, up sharply from 73% just a week earlier, based on the CME FedWatch tool.

Geopolitical Tensions – Despite the Houthis announcing fresh military action, both Tehran and Washington appear keen to restart talks and stop the escalating attacks that have nearly destroyed a fragile interim agreement reached last month. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire, aimed at rescuing the interim deal and eventually leading to a lasting peace agreement.

Macro-Economic SignalsGold remains under short-term pressure from expectations of Fed tightening and a strong dollar. However, investor positioning in gold looks relatively light after months of ETF outflows, meaning further price drops may be limited. Strong physical demand, especially from China, along with continued central bank buying, is providing solid support to the gold market.

Technical Triggers

If Gold fails to hold above $4,000 (~Rs.1,41,000), it could slide further to $3,900 (~Rs.1,38,000). But if it manages to stay above $4,200, a fresh rally could take it toward $4,500 (~Rs.1,55,000).

For Silver, a strong move above $63 (~Rs.2,35,000) could push prices toward $70–71 (~Rs.2,51,000–2,55,000). On the other hand, a fall below $55 (~Rs.2,14,000) may drag it down to $50 (~Rs.2,00,000).

Support and Resistance

International Gold Support Level
International Gold Resistance Level
Domestic Gold Support Level
Domestic Gold Resistance Level
: $3900/oz
: $4160/oz
: Rs 137,000/10 gm
: Rs 147,000/10 gm
International Silver Support Level
International Silver Resistance Level
Domestic Silver Support Level
Domestic Silver Resistance Level
: $55/oz
: $63/oz  
: Rs 214,000/kg
: Rs 235,000/kg
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