Safe-Haven Dynamics – Gold and Silver have resumed their upward trend, supported by optimism around a potential US–Iran peace deal that is weakening the safe-haven appeal of the USD. Despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, investor sentiment leans toward diplomatic resolution. This has pushed Crude Oil prices lower, reducing inflationary pressure and lowering expectations of a more aggressive Fed stance. 

Geopolitical Developments – Iran has accused the US of breaching the ceasefire through strikes near the Strait. The Trump administration is awaiting Tehran’s formal response to a proposal aimed at reopening Hormuz and resolving the roughly ten-week conflict. Reports suggest Iran will relay its position via Pakistan within two days.

Macro-economic Signals Markets are focused on today’s NFP print, forecast at 62K — a sharp pullback from March’s stronger-than-expected 178K. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth is expected to tick up to 3.8% from 3.5%, keeping wage inflation in focus.

Technical Triggers

• Gold continues its upside momentum with next target resistance at $4,800–4,850 (~Rs.1,55,000). 
• Silver has met the $80 (~Rs. 2,60,000) and $82 (~Rs. 2,65,000) upside target. Prices are expected to consolidate here for a while before moving higher towards $85 (~Rs. 2,70,000)

Support and Resistance