Despite challenges in the broader luxury market, the jewelry segment continues to shine, according to a new report by Bain & Company in collaboration with Italian luxury industry group Altagamma. The report outlines a cautious outlook for the personal luxury goods market in 2025, with the most likely scenario forecasting a moderate decline of 2% to 5%.

Three potential trajectories were presented for the year:

1. A moderate contraction of 2%–5% (most likely)
2. A stable scenario ranging from a 2% decline to 2% growth
3. A more severe downturn of 5%–9% in an extended weak market

Following a strong rebound post-COVID, which saw the personal luxury market reach €369 billion ($425 billion) in 2023, the sector contracted slightly by 1% in 2024 to €364 billion ($419.2 billion). Early 2025 data suggests a further softening of 1% to 3% in Q1.

Despite the broader slowdown, the jewelry category remains a bright spot. Consumer appetite for both ultra-luxury pieces and accessible luxury jewelry continues to fuel growth in this segment. Bain notes that while sluggish tourism has affected the European luxury landscape, domestic demand—particularly for fine jewelry—has helped cushion the impact.

Other areas showing strength include experiential luxury, which is increasingly popular with Gen Z buyers seeking more personalized and emotionally meaningful luxury experiences.

However, overall global luxury spending is under pressure. Economic uncertainties, including tariffs in key markets like the US and China, are affecting consumer sentiment. Younger generations are also becoming more discerning, questioning the value and cultural relevance of luxury goods.

Still, there is optimism for the future. Claudia D’Arpizio, senior partner at Bain & Company and global head of its fashion and luxury practice, emphasized the sector’s resilience:

“Although demand is easing in the short term, the luxury sector has consistently demonstrated extraordinary resilience — buoyed by a growing global consumer base and deeply rooted emotional drivers,” she said. “Across generations, motivations tied to self-reward, status, identity, and achievement will continue to sustain the relevance of luxury.”

In short, while the luxury market may contract slightly in 2025, jewelry continues to shine as a key growth driver, supported by emotional value, strong local demand, and enduring consumer engagement.