International News
Kagem to recommence focused open-pit mining
Gemfields is pleased to announce that Kagem Mining Limited (‘Kagem’), the emerald mine in Zambia which is 75% owned by Gemfields and 25% owned by the Government of the Republic of Zambia through the Industrial Development Corporation of Zambia (‘IDC’), will shortly recommence a programme of focused open-pit mining to recover more premium emeralds.
As announced on 23 December 2024, alongside other cost cutting measures, Kagem suspended all mining from 1 January 2025 to focus on processing ore from Kagem’s significant ore stockpile utilising the upgraded processing plant.
Emerald production from the processing plant in 2025 so far, in terms of carats recovered, has been in-line with the Company’s expectations, producing a lower proportion of higher-quality or premium emeralds than direct open-pit mining methods.
Kagem’s recent auction results, including the encouraging commercial-quality auction results released on 30 April 2025, has increased management confidence in the current emerald market and the decision has therefore been taken to recommence mining of two key production points in the Chama pit, with minimal waste mining, to recover premium emeralds for Kagem’s future higher-quality auctions. The decision to recommence full scale mining will continue to be assessed as market conditions develop.
International News
WGC Gold Market Commentary-Go With The Flow
September Was Unusual: Despite The Price Decline,Global Gold ETFs Recorded US $10bn (67t) Of Inflows Across Regions. North America Led The Charge, Followed By Europe and Asia.
September review
A surge in US Treasury yields and the US dollar alongside a drop in futures positions helped drive prices lower in September, despite
Yet September was unusual: despite the price decline, global gold ETFs recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions. North America led the charge, followed by Europe and Asia.
Key Takeaways & Market Drivers
1. September Price Retreat
- Price Movement: Gold dropped 8.5% m/m in September to close at $4,176/oz (USD), experiencing broad declines across all major international currencies.
- Primary Drivers: Macro headwinds drove prices lower, specifically a 53 bps surge in US 10-year Treasury yields (to 5.3%) and a 2% gain in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as captured by the Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM).
- Derivatives Liquidation: COMEX net managed money positions shrank by $12bn (84t), while spreading positions fell by $22bn (156t), putting heavy downward pressure on spot prices.
2. Divergence: Physical ETFs vs. Derivatives
- Unusual Contrast: While futures/derivatives positions liquidated sharply, physical demand held firm—global gold ETFs saw strong net inflows of $10bn (67t) in September, led by North America, Europe, and Asia.
3. Stellar European & UK Demand in Q3
- Record Demand: UK-listed gold ETFs recorded 54 tonnes of inflows in Q3 (inflows in 12 of 13 weeks), far exceeding model predictions of 18t (a 36t excess).
- Macro Shift: Historical relationships fail to explain the surge. However, since July, excess UK ETF inflows have strongly correlated (r = 0.51) with rising UK term premia.
- Fiscal Concerns: Investors appear increasingly focused on long-term fiscal sustainability (highlighted by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility’s warnings) and persistent inflation risks rather than transient policy events.
Outlook: What to Watch in October
- Fed & Central Bank Meetings: Markets have lowered expectations for further monetary tightening across the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England.
- Key Signal: If bond yields and term premia remain elevated despite dovish rate expectations, it will signal deeper structural concerns regarding fiscal deficits, which should continue supporting strategic gold demand.
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