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Gold volatility spikes  on geopolitics, trade wars

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Gold prices rose today  on safe-haven buying after US President Donald Trump reignited the trade war by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% and imposing export controls on “any and all critical software”. Gold saw a dip on Friday on the heels of Israel Hamas ceasefire. The unprecedented gold price rally came to a halt on Friday, offering some relief to investors and retail jewellery buyers alike. On the occasion of Karwa Chauth, gold prices in India witnessed a sharp correction on October 10.

 US-China Trade Tensions (Escalating Uncertainty)

Renewed fears of a full-blown trade war between the United States and China are a major factor driving recent spikes in gold prices.

  • Trade War Impact: Threats of new, high-rate tariffs (e.g., a potential 100% tariff on Chinese goods) and export restrictions create economic uncertainty, which investors traditionally hedge against by buying gold.
  • Inflationary Pressure: Tariffs can raise the cost of imported goods, leading to inflationary pressures. Gold serves as a classic hedge against inflation, directly boosting its demand and price.
  • Currency Weakness: An escalating trade dispute can cause the US Dollar (USD) to weaken relative to other currencies, which makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for international buyers, further stimulating demand.

Hamas-Israel Conflict & Ceasefire Volatility (Risk Premium)

The conflict in the Middle East contributes a significant “geopolitical risk premium” to the price of gold.

  • Safe-Haven Demand: The outbreak and escalation of the conflict (from October 2023 onward) immediately triggered a surge in gold buying as investors sought to protect capital from the sudden, high-stakes political and military instability.
  • Ceasefire Impact: Reports of a US-brokered ceasefire agreement or de-escalation tend to have the opposite, negative effect, temporarily easing the geopolitical risk premium. This can cause short-term price corrections or dips in gold as market fears subside.
  • Regional Spillover: The threat of the conflict spreading and disrupting global energy supplies (e.g., oil) creates potential inflationary risk, which reinforces gold’s appeal regardless of temporary ceasefires.

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International News

Gold continues upward march;Bank of America forecasts  $5,000/oz for 2026

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Gold prices in India saw a modest rise on Wednesday today Oct 15, mirroring an uptick in international markets as renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of further US interest rate cuts bolstered demand for safe-haven assets.24k gold traded at Rs.1,28,360/10gm after gaining ₹10 in early trade, while silver prices increased by Rs.100 to Rs.1,89,100 per kilogram.

Gold prices surged to a record high of $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025.  Investors flocked to safe-haven metals amid trade tensions and Fed rate-cut expectations. U.S. December gold futures jumped 57% year-to-date.  Bank of America raised its 2026 gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, warning of possible near-term corrections.

Gold prices soared to an unprecedented $4,179.48 per ounce on October 14, 2025, marking a historic milestone for the yellow metal. The rally comes as investors worldwide seek safety in hard assets amid a turbulent global economic backdrop marked by escalating trade tensions, slowing growth, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The sharp surge in bullion prices has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and aggressive monetary easing. As inflation pressures remain sticky and central banks pivot toward dovish policies, gold has reasserted its role as a hedge against both currency debasement and market volatility.

In futures trading, U.S. December gold contracts have skyrocketed nearly 57% so far this year, underscoring the strength of investor demand across both institutional and retail segments. Analysts note that central bank buying—particularly from emerging markets—has added further momentum to the rally, with several countries diversifying reserves away from the U.S. dollar.

Reflecting this bullish sentiment, Bank of America has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing continued monetary easing, geopolitical instability, and robust central bank accumulation. However, the bank also cautioned that short-term corrections are likely, given the rapid pace of the recent run-up and potential bouts of profit-taking.

Overall, gold’s meteoric rise underscores a broader shift toward safe-haven assets, as investors navigate a world increasingly defined by economic fragmentation, shifting interest rate cycles, and persistent geopolitical risks.

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JewelBuzz is Asia’s First Digital Jewellery Media & India’s No.1 B2B Jewellery Magazine, published by AM Media House. Since 2016, we’ve been the trusted source for jewellery news, market trends, trade insights, exhibitions, podcasts, and brand stories, connecting jewellers, retailers, and industry professionals worldwide.

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