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Gold surges as US-Israel-Iran tensions boost safe-haven demand

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Today, the price of 24K gold touched Rs.1,67,060 per 10 grams, reflecting a gain of Rs.4,870 compared to its previous close. Meanwhile, 22K gold is at Rs.1,53,138 per 10 grams. Experts suggest prices could reach Rs.2 lakh as geopolitical risks escalate.

Additionally, strong purchases by central banks and risk-off sentiment in equities continue to lend support to gold prices. Major banks such as J.P. Morgan and Bank of America remain constructive on bullion, citing resilient demand and a shifting global risk landscape. Rising geopolitical risk, inflation concerns, central bank buying, and expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy continue to underpin bullion.

Following the international market, gold and silver prices in India opened with a big upside gap. The MCX gold rate today opened at Rs.1,65,501 per 10 gm and touched an intraday high of Rs.1,67,915 per 10 gm, logging over Rs.5,500 per 10 gm gain within a few minutes of the Opening Bell.

Likewise, the MCX silver rate today opened upside at Rs.2,78,644 per kg and touched an intraday high of ₹2,85,978, logging an intraday gain of around 3.75%.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran will continue next week following what Oman, the mediator, described as “significant progress.”

Gold prices are extending gains sharply amid escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Safe-haven inflows into gold have intensified as conflict across West Asia drives the surge in prices.

Gold prices tend to rise during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, as the metal is a non-interest-bearing safe-haven asset.

The yellow metal posted its seventh straight monthly gain in February, marking its longest winning streak since 1973. Regional instability continues to support prices, with Iran responding with retaliatory strikes on US troops in the Middle East following the reported death of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

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International News

World Silver Survey 2026: A Transformative Era For The Silver Market, Characterized By Extreme Price Volatility

Landmark Year Where Supply-Demand Imbalances Finally Triggered Explosive Price Action

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The World Silver Survey 2026 details a transformative era for the silver market, characterized by extreme price volatility, a shifting industrial landscape, and a definitive end to the era of “unlimited liquidity.” After years of structural deficits, 2025 emerged as a landmark year where supply-demand imbalances finally triggered explosive price action.

Price Performance and Market Dynamics

Silver witnessed a spectacular ascent in 2025, surging from under $29/oz to a December peak of $84/oz. This momentum culminated in an all-time record of $121.60/oz in January 2026, before a hawkish Federal Reserve pivot and geopolitical conflict in Iran induced a sharp correction. Despite this volatility, the gold-to-silver ratio compressed significantly, reaching a decade-low of 55:1 by late 2025, signaling silver’s outperformance relative to gold.

Supply: Record Margins and Recycling

Global mine production rose 3% to 846.6 Moz in 2025. Growth was fueled by high-grade ramp-ups in Chile, Peru, and Russia, offsetting a 5% decline in Mexico caused by regulatory shifts and falling grades. Notably, primary silver mines now account for only 26% of global supply, leaving the market increasingly dependent on by-product output from copper and gold operations.

While production rose, the real story lay in profitability. Record gold prices boosted by-product credits, driving silver miners’ All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) down to $12.21/oz. This created a staggering 75% increase in profit margins, with nearly the entire primary silver sector remaining profitable. Additionally, recycling hit a 13-year high of 197.6 Moz, though refinery bottlenecks limited its full impact.

Demand: A Tale of Two Sectors

For the first time since the pandemic, total silver demand contracted by 2% to 1,130.6 Moz. This was driven by two main factors:

  • Industrial Thrifting: Industrial demand fell 3%, primarily due to the solar industry. As silver costs spiked to 20% of cell manufacturing costs, manufacturers accelerated “thrifting” technologies, reducing silver loading in photovoltaic (PV) cells.
  • Price Sensitivity: High prices crushed jewelry and silverware demand, particularly in India, where fabrication dropped 20%.

Conversely, physical investment remained robust. Demand for coins and bars rose 14%, led by a massive 33% surge in India and a doubling of investment demand in China.

The Liquidity Squeeze and 2026 Outlook

A critical theme of the report is the structural fragility of inventories. In October 2025, a convergence of ETP inflows and physical demand led to a liquidity squeeze in London, sending overnight lease rates to 200%. With London’s non-ETP stocks hitting record lows, the market proved it no longer has a “buffer” for sudden demand spikes.

Looking ahead to 2026, Metals Focus projects a sixth consecutive deficit of 46.3 Moz. While industrial and jewelry demand may continue to soften under price pressure, silver’s new status as a U.S. Critical Mineral and its growing role in AI data centers provide a strong floor. The market remains in a state of “permanent deficit,” where cumulative shortfalls (totaling 716 Moz over five years) ensure that silver remains a high-stakes, strategically vital asset.

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